Non-Participants in MVC Pick-em Contest

[ShockerFever]

Why aren't they his picks? You've said he's only ever focused on stats. Do you believe he is the one running the calculations over at kenpom or doing the math? When he gives statistical analysis, it's almost always one of the big stat sites. You can't call him out about overly relying on stats and then criticize him when he says he'd use kenpom to make predictions.

Also, I know this sounds like a cop out, but the goal of a stat site is to beat averages. If WSU beats UNI 99/100 times, but your gut told you UNI was going to win and in the first minute of the game an asteroid wiped out our team causing us to forfeit, was your gut really right? Maybe, but the stat site was still the better prediction prior to the game. To win contests like this that have large pools, you really just want the statistics to be better than the average picker. The overall winner is always going to require some level of luck.

They aren't his picks because he's strictly using 1 person's unique calculations to make his picks, even pick his points. Now, if you used a method like this as a guide to make your picks, that's one thing. But there is zero thought process involved by the poster. Like he even stated, it's a strict copy-and-paste job. And as a KenPom fanboy, I would assume that's the method he would choose because he doesn't have a lot of original thought going on up there.

Going strictly by the computer is not going to net you this contest, winning a poker game in Vegas, or winning the lottery. And it never has. And it never will. And you answered your own question. Computers can't account for luck or other variables. It pays to have a little original thought.

[Shocker1976]

However, to start a thread for the express purpose of bashing fellow posters for not participating in a VOLUNTARY activity and implying that their non participation means they don't know what they're talking about is asinine.

Interesting conclusion you have drawn regards this thread, in my experience such a conclusion speaks to your character.

Regards my intent for this thread, I got what I wanted, JH4P has graciously agreed to provide the KenPom data regards likelihood of winning the MVC games some of the Shockernet posters publicly predict. In fact JH4P has provided this data from week one even though we are currently in week 4.

[molly jabali]

Do I need 2 ibuprofen or 4 after reading this thread?:)

[Cdizzle]

OK, here you go. Do you mind doing the computations for me?

Don't get testy with me just because I was aware of the luck rating. I'm genuinely interested in how we can create one for the Pickem Contest. It's worth noting that the Pickem Contest isn't about beating a KenPom or Sagarin (not that I'm against someone using those.) It's about creating differentiated bets from your competitors with the least risk that hopefully pays out the most over 18 rounds. One should increase or decrease differentiation and risk based on relative standing and proximity to end date. I'd like to be able to evaluate how lucky/unlucky the field is in doing this, but I lack the novel mathematical and statistical know-how.

[chitown_shocker]

Edit - NM - couldn't even quote properly = need to get back to real work

[Dave Stalwart]

My experience is that anytime anyone asserts anything controversial on Shockernet, someone will challenge their character and then the other person will double dog dare them by reverse-challenging their character back at them. This indicates to me that we have some characters on Shockernet. The bottom line is that this board has character. Whatever that means. I'm trying to somehow tie in a Creighton reference, and I'm struggling.

[WstateU]

Do I need 2 ibuprofen or 4 after reading this thread?:)

Sometimes a "Where's Waldo?" challenge is what the doctor ordered; spot the guy with the red hair.

Click wisely...

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/7c/5d/f2/7c5df22fedfe93de2df05a240270573f.jpg

[ShockTalk]

I won this thing 2 straight years by doing exactly that!

They aren't his picks because he's strictly using 1 person's unique calculations to make his picks, even pick his points. Now, if you used a method like this as a guide to make your picks, that's one thing. But there is zero thought process involved by the poster. Like he even stated, it's a strict copy-and-paste job. And as a KenPom fanboy, I would assume that's the method he would choose because he doesn't have a lot of original thought going on up there.

Going strictly by the computer is not going to net you this contest, winning a poker game in Vegas, or winning the lottery. And it never has. And it never will. And you answered your own question. Computers can't account for luck or other variables. It pays to have a little original thought.

Well, it appears someone had a thought that was better than everyone else's for 2 years running.

Stats may not get you a win every time, but it will probably at least keep you in the running.

[Cdizzle]

My experience is that anytime anyone asserts anything controversial on Shockernet, someone will challenge their character and then the other person will double dog dare them by reverse-challenging their character back at them. This indicates to me that we have some characters on Shockernet. The bottom line is that this board has character. Whatever that means. I'm trying to somehow tie in a Creighton reference, and I'm struggling.

Just call the character an unwilling domesticated farm animal, reference UNI, and be done with it already.

[Dave Stalwart]

Just call the character an unwilling domesticated farm animal, reference UNI, and be done with it already.

The only trouble is that all the domesticated farm animals in Cedar Falls are willing at this point.

[ShockerFever]

Well, it appears someone had a thought that was better than everyone else's for 2 years running.

Stats may not get you a win every time, but it will probably at least keep you in the running.

I'm not saying I don't believe Russ, but I need more proof than a mention after the fact. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Btw, you can win them with it, just as anyone with any sort of common sense could.

[WheatShock]

Interesting conclusion you have drawn regards this thread, in my experience such a conclusion speaks to your character.

Regards my intent for this thread, I got what I wanted, JH4P has graciously agreed to provide the KenPom data regards likelihood of winning the MVC games some of the Shockernet posters publicly predict. In fact JH4P has provided this data from week one even though we are currently in week 4.

A thread to ask if other posters on Shockernet are as surprised/disappointed as I am that some of our more vociferous posters do not participate in the MVC Pick-em Contest. The two non-participants that are most surprising to me are JH4P and Kel Varsen given their frequent posts of explanation on any thread that discusses statistics and probabilities of Shocker success.

IMO these two do not participate as the reality of their expertise in statistics and probabilities would be demonstrated weekly.

I'm not sure how you think your last sentence of the original post was supposed to make me draw the conclusion that you really wanted JH4P & Kel to provide data to the pick em contestants. It certainly implies that their expertise in statistics would be found lacking if they were to participate. Your claimed intent could have been easily accomplished with a simple PM instead of creating a whole thread asking other posters to weigh in on whether they are surprised/disappointed by the non participation of our fellow posters.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Too much grumpy. Need more lighthearted fun.

[RussDaBus]

I'm not saying I don't believe Russ, but I need more proof than a mention after the fact. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Btw, you can win them with it, just as anyone with any sort of common sense could.

I have mentioned this in the past. When I have more time I will post the posts stating I just used kenpoms projections. The confidence points I assigned based on the point spread but I always used his winners.

[WSU and Reds Fan]

OK, here you go. Do you mind doing the computations for me?

Every time I keep getting a divisible by 0 error