2016-17 Predictions and Expectations

[Play Angry]

The roster is set and the schedule is out - how do you think we will do?

We all share the same general expectations and hopes - continued excellent representation of the school within the community, academic success, staying healthy, etc. Cheers to the platitudes and may none of those wishes be taken for granted.

This thread, however, is for specifics - wins, losses, standing predictions, postseason qualifications and achievements, and similar prognostications. I will kick it off with an acknowledgement that failure to meet the following predictions would not necessarily be disappointing:

OOC: 10-3 (losses vs. Louisville, @ CSU and @ OU in OKC)

MVC: 15-3 (losses @ UNI, MSU and ISUr) (1st)

Arch Madness: 3-0 (beating ISUr in the title game)

NCAA: 7 seed, chips fall where they may.


I expect the top 4 in the MVC to be (relatively) good this year, with 5-6 being "okay" (~125-150 RPI) and the bottom 4 being more or less historically awful.

What about you?

[CBB_Fan]

I think a reasonable number is 5-8 losses split roughly 50/50 between MVC and OOC. 6 is an 8-9 seed, 8 is a 1 seed in the wrong tournament with about a 50ish RPI whereas some random Power5 team will get an 10 seed with a 60-70 RPI. I truly think we get no breaks from the Selection Committee, and last year cemented that opinion in my mind. I will never get over what happened last year. We were disrespected, and the difference in that respect was an easy Final Four route or a losing to Miami in the Round of 32. There is no logical reason to have ever seeded Syracuse above us, as they literally had the lowest RPI ever to get into the tournament. And of course, as luck went we had the toughest possible route for an 11 seed and Syracuse continued to receive gifts by going against an 11 seed and and 15 seed; we had a harder route to the Round of 32 than Syracuse did to the Elite 8.

Anyway, I could see us getting as few as 3 losses or quite a few more depending on how well everyone comes together. Not going to judge anything from the Canada tour. The potential of this team is higher than last year's or the year before, but there are a lot more risks. We seemed to end last year without an offense and Canada showed that some of that may remain, but if we get it together I think we can finally fix our shooting woes and remain a top defensive team (though we aren't likely to match what we did last season, where we were significantly better than the #2 team in the country on defense).

[jdshock]

There is no logical reason to have ever seeded Syracuse above us, as they literally had the lowest RPI ever to get into the tournament.

I guess you didn't get the memo. They lost several games because they didn't have their coach... Since he was suspended... As a punishment... So, you know, it made no sense to take those games into consideration when picking the field. Right?

But I don't want to derail the thread with my bitterness. I'll predict some head scratching losses, some incredibly athletic dunks that cause me to jump from my seat on the couch, and an mvc conference title.

Also, Shaq is going to be a big deal.

[ShockingButTrue]

The annual Athlon College Basketball Preview is on the shelves now. Got mine at Dillons on E. Harry & Webb.

They pick the Shockers 1st in the Valley.

[WuDrWu]

I don't really like making predictions.

[WuDrWu]

I will say this.....it appears I may have to consume a lot of crow in my early assessment of Austin Reeves.

Yes, he still may redshirt....then again, the staff may not want to, at all.

[1972Shocker]

I will say this.....it appears I may have to consume a lot of crow in my early assessment of Austin Reeves.

Yes, he still may redshirt....then again, the staff may not want to, at all.

Is this based on what your are hearing or seeing? Or both? Reading some of the comments from coaches and teammates the sense I get is that he is a young man that has a natural feel for the game and a natural BBIQ. This observation is based on absolutely nothing concrete. However, I still thing a redshirt year makes sense for Austin. I can't help but thing about Ron's career path. But I have consumed more than my share of crow over the years so another helping won't make too much difference.

[Shocker1976]

I am optimistic for the coming season and my confidence in HC3G remains unshaken -

OOC - 12-1 (lose to Louisville in the Bahamas and sweep State of Oklahoma)

MVC - 16-2 (losses @ UNI and Illinois State)

Arch Madness - 3-0

NCAA - 3 seed (31-3 record) with the Shockers favored to win Elite 8 game

[jcdshocker]

I will say this.....it appears I may have to consume a lot of crow in my early assessment of Austin Reeves.

Yes, he still may redshirt....then again, the staff may not want to, at all.

I could be totally wrong but the only way Reeves red shirts is because of another injury.

[WuDrWu]

Is this based on what your are hearing or seeing? Or both? Reading some of the comments from coaches and teammates the sense I get is that he is a young man that has a natural feel for the game and a natural BBIQ. This observation is based on absolutely nothing concrete. However, I still thing a redshirt year makes sense for Austin. I can't help but thing about Ron's career path. But I have consumed more than my share of crow over the years so another helping won't make too much difference.

It's just not fair to compare him (or anyone for that matter) to Baker or VanVleet. Nevertheless, it's going to be done. You don't teach what this kid has. Physically he's not ready, imho, for the beating and grind of a 40 game top level D1 experience.

But they may not be able to keep him off the court. Whether it's this year or next, opponents are going to shake their heads and swear.

[wufan]

It's just not fair to compare him (or anyone for that matter) to Baker or VanVleet. Nevertheless, it's going to be done. You don't teach what this kid has. Physically he's not ready, imho, for the beating and grind of a 40 game top level D1 experience.

But they may not be able to keep him off the court. Whether it's this year or next, opponents are going to shake their heads and swear.

I 100% agree with this assessment. Can he beat out one of Smith/Frankamp/Shamet/Allen for guard minutes at 18 years of age and ~ 175 lbs?

[ShockerPrez]

I am optimistic for the coming season and my confidence in HC3G remains unshaken -

OOC - 12-1 (lose to Louisville in the Bahamas and sweep State of Oklahoma)

MVC - 16-2 (losses @ UNI and Illinois State)

Arch Madness - 3-0

NCAA - 3 seed (31-3 record) with the Shockers favored to win Elite 8 game

Lose to Looville???

What a freaking pessimist!

[im4wsu]

I 100% agree with this assessment. Can he beat out one of Smith/Frankamp/Shamet/Allen for guard minutes at 18 years of age and ~ 175 lbs?

Since I haven't seen Austin or CJK play yet and have seen PA play only on the Canada trip viewing on the ipad, it is difficult to make any prediction or even have a feel. If anybody has seen them, who is quicker defensively between Allen and Reaves?

Shamet is listed at 6'4" and 184
Allen is listed at 6'5" and 217
Frankamp is 6'1" and 169

Reaves at 6'5 and 167 (even 175) isn't in the same physical category.

Corey Henderson was listed at 6'3" and 169. It didn't seem like his physical build prevented him from competing.
Nick Wiggins was 6'6" and 187 on the October 2012 roster
David Kyles was 6'4" and 186 on the October 2011

Reaves may not be too far away from these physical statures. Again, I've only seen pictures of him never in person.

[1972Shocker]

It's just not fair to compare him (or anyone for that matter) to Baker or VanVleet. Nevertheless, it's going to be done. You don't teach what this kid has. Physically he's not ready, imho, for the beating and grind of a 40 game top level D1 experience.

But they may not be able to keep him off the court. Whether it's this year or next, opponents are going to shake their heads and swear.

I agree although I really did not compare Austin to Ron in anything other than possible career paths. In other words taking a Redshirt year. It worked out well for Ron. I think it would also be helpful for Austin. We can only dream that the results would be the same but I agree that is a tall order and bridge a bit too far at this point.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I am optimistic for the coming season and my confidence in HC3G remains unshaken -

OOC - 12-1 (lose to Louisville in the Bahamas and sweep State of Oklahoma)

MVC - 16-2 (losses @ UNI and Illinois State)

Arch Madness - 3-0

NCAA - 3 seed (31-3 record) with the Shockers favored to win Elite 8 game

Pump that sunshine, baby! Pump that sunshine!