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Wanna know where WSU will be playing the opening weekend of the Big Dance? Unless you have a time machine, it is impossible to know for sure, but here are some of my thoughts on how things are shaping up. I think the odds are now approaching 50/50 that WSU will win out between today and selection Sunday. If they do, I think a 4 or 5 seed is very likely.
Here’s a quick reminder on bracket assignments. Groups of 4 teams go together to sites in groups, also known as “pods”.
1 / 8 / 9 / 16
2 / 7 / 10 / 15
3 / 6 / 11 / 14
4 / 5 / 12 / 13
There are 8 sites total, and each site gets 2 pods for a total of 8 teams. One site can have two #1 seeds or none at all. It just has to have 2 pods.
One interesting note specific to this year. The entire western 1/3rd of the country is down. The Pac 12 is deep but not strong at the top. The Mountain West is down. Gonzaga is down. St. Mary’s is having a great year but is unlikely to be a top 5 seed. The vast majority of the top 25 schools are east of Wichita. What I’m trying to say is… don’t count on WSU going east. There are too many teams fighting for too few spots at those sites. Most likely, a few teams east of the Mississippi get sent quite a ways west.
I’m going to skip any detailed analysis of the 2 sites in the far northeast (NY and RI). WSU isn’t likely headed to either. Here are my rankings (from least likely to most likely) of where WSU might be headed. For each site, I am going to list the regional teams that appear to have a reasonable shot at a top 5 seed.
#6 - Raleigh, NC
North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, Miami, West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
There is virtually no reason to send the Shox this far east with so many other teams that make as much or more sense. I think North Carolina and either Virginia or Maryland likely snag the protected seeds at this site and the rest of these teams get sent elsewhere. Anyone in this group who falls all the way to a 6 or 7 seed could, for example, get placed in Virginia’s pod (if they were a 2 or 3) and still get to go to Raleigh, but for the purposes of this analysis, I’m just looking at seeds 1-5. Beyond the top 5 seeds, an already difficult task becomes nearly impossible as there are so many factors that come into play, especially more than a month prior to Selection Sunday.
#5 - St. Louis, MO
Louisville, Kentucky, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Indiana, Xavier, Purdue, Dayton, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia, Virginia
Not a bad drive for Shocker fans, but there are literally more than a dozen quality teams within a 12 hour drive of St. Louis. It seems unlikely that the committee would send the Shockers 7 hours east in a year where they need to be sending teams west instead. If you are trying to pick which teams from this list will be sent to St. Louis, your guess is as good as mine. I just don’t think it will be the Shox.
#4 - Des Moines, IA
Iowa State, Iowa, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Louisville, Kentucky, Xavier, Dayton
It seems highly likely Iowa will be playing in Des Moines as a 1 or 2 seed. Beyond Iowa, there are a handful of teams that could lead the other pod as a 2 or 3 seed, leaving no room for any 4’s or 5’s at that site. If a pod with a 4/5 pair does somehow get assigned to Des Moines, WSU would have a shot, but that pair could also be easily filled with any 2 of Iowa State, Purdue, Louisville, Kentucky, or Dayton. I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but with WSU being the westernmost school in this conversation, I doubt they end up in Des Moines.
#3 - OKC
Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Baylor, KU, Texas
OU is a lock for OKC. Their fans might as well start buying tickets now. That only leaves one other pod for this site. I think Texas A&M, if seeded as a 2 or 3, gets preference over KU for OKC. KU has 4 different sites this year within 8 hours of Lawrence. For Texas A&M, if they don’t get OKC, the other options are all 12+ hours away. If Texas A&M falls to a 4, I could see KU getting preference and A&M getting shipped elsewhere, but if KU and A&M are within a seed line of each other, I think A&M gets OKC. With that said, should Texas A&M get a 4 and get assigned to OKC, I could see them getting paired with Baylor/Texas (whoever finishes the season stronger) as the 4/5 pairing. The best chance for WSU to go to OKC would seem to be if all the Texas teams play fairly poorly in February. Then, with Baylor and Texas out of the picture, I could see WSU as the 5 with Texas A&M as the 4. Shocker fans have plenty of reason to hold out hope, but with OU already snagging a spot, I think WSU’s chances are limited.
#2 - Spokane, WA
Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC
The west is interesting since the list of teams above is not only short, but all are from the same conference. As of today, only Oregon would likely earn a protected seed, and they are far from a guarantee. Making matters worse, if any of these teams are 4 seeds, the committee has to find a 5 seed to send out to Spokane with them. In order to avoid a 2nd round meeting by a pair of Pac 12 teams, I think it is likely that someone outside the Pac 10 gets shipped to Spokane from a long ways away. WSU, Baylor, and Texas would all seem to be candidates as potential 4/5 seeds, but honestly I could see the committee shipping just about anyone outside of the state of Florida up to Spokane as some simple “tough luck”. Gotta fill out the bracket one way or another. If the committee needs to pull someone from more than 1,000 miles away, it is pretty much a crapshoot who they will pick. Miami may be the only school that can safely write off Spokane. I don’t know who it will be, but someone seeded fairly high is probably going to be upset that they are traveling so far away from home. Let’s just hope it isn’t the Shockers.
#1 - Denver, CO
KU, Utah, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas
Denver is also interesting. I could see KU as a 2 or 3 and then a 4/5 pair out of the remaining teams on the list. Just like Spokane, Denver could be a real possibility for the Shox if the committee needs a non-Pac 12 team to join a Pac 12 team in a 4/5 pairing. I rank Denver as more likely than Spokane simply because it makes sense for Shocker fans while simultaneously fulfilling the committee’s need to send quite a few team’s west of their home city.
Conclusion:
I should probably call Denver my 1A and Spokane my 1B. Unlike many sites where the committee will have a handful of nearby teams to choose from, finding 4 teams in the “protected seeds” class to send to these two locations (and possibly a couple 5 seeds as well) is not going to be an easy task. OKC is not too far behind in 3rd place, but after that, I think there is a big drop off. #4 through #8 might as well all be tied for last.
Caveat:
Every year, several protected seeds go places that just make no sense. Avoiding match ups of conference foes in the early rounds sometimes requires last minute changes. Also, with games being played even on selection Sunday itself, the simple lack of time to reorganize the bracket to “perfection” often comes into play. Don’t take my comments above to be an exact science. The committee will generally think along the lines of what I said in this post, but even still, you must allow at least a 5-10% chance that any team could end up just about anywhere simply because this is a complicated process and will never be perfect.
Here’s a quick reminder on bracket assignments. Groups of 4 teams go together to sites in groups, also known as “pods”.
1 / 8 / 9 / 16
2 / 7 / 10 / 15
3 / 6 / 11 / 14
4 / 5 / 12 / 13
There are 8 sites total, and each site gets 2 pods for a total of 8 teams. One site can have two #1 seeds or none at all. It just has to have 2 pods.
One interesting note specific to this year. The entire western 1/3rd of the country is down. The Pac 12 is deep but not strong at the top. The Mountain West is down. Gonzaga is down. St. Mary’s is having a great year but is unlikely to be a top 5 seed. The vast majority of the top 25 schools are east of Wichita. What I’m trying to say is… don’t count on WSU going east. There are too many teams fighting for too few spots at those sites. Most likely, a few teams east of the Mississippi get sent quite a ways west.
I’m going to skip any detailed analysis of the 2 sites in the far northeast (NY and RI). WSU isn’t likely headed to either. Here are my rankings (from least likely to most likely) of where WSU might be headed. For each site, I am going to list the regional teams that appear to have a reasonable shot at a top 5 seed.
#6 - Raleigh, NC
North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, Miami, West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
There is virtually no reason to send the Shox this far east with so many other teams that make as much or more sense. I think North Carolina and either Virginia or Maryland likely snag the protected seeds at this site and the rest of these teams get sent elsewhere. Anyone in this group who falls all the way to a 6 or 7 seed could, for example, get placed in Virginia’s pod (if they were a 2 or 3) and still get to go to Raleigh, but for the purposes of this analysis, I’m just looking at seeds 1-5. Beyond the top 5 seeds, an already difficult task becomes nearly impossible as there are so many factors that come into play, especially more than a month prior to Selection Sunday.
#5 - St. Louis, MO
Louisville, Kentucky, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Indiana, Xavier, Purdue, Dayton, Michigan State, Michigan, West Virginia, Virginia
Not a bad drive for Shocker fans, but there are literally more than a dozen quality teams within a 12 hour drive of St. Louis. It seems unlikely that the committee would send the Shockers 7 hours east in a year where they need to be sending teams west instead. If you are trying to pick which teams from this list will be sent to St. Louis, your guess is as good as mine. I just don’t think it will be the Shox.
#4 - Des Moines, IA
Iowa State, Iowa, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Louisville, Kentucky, Xavier, Dayton
It seems highly likely Iowa will be playing in Des Moines as a 1 or 2 seed. Beyond Iowa, there are a handful of teams that could lead the other pod as a 2 or 3 seed, leaving no room for any 4’s or 5’s at that site. If a pod with a 4/5 pair does somehow get assigned to Des Moines, WSU would have a shot, but that pair could also be easily filled with any 2 of Iowa State, Purdue, Louisville, Kentucky, or Dayton. I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but with WSU being the westernmost school in this conversation, I doubt they end up in Des Moines.
#3 - OKC
Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Baylor, KU, Texas
OU is a lock for OKC. Their fans might as well start buying tickets now. That only leaves one other pod for this site. I think Texas A&M, if seeded as a 2 or 3, gets preference over KU for OKC. KU has 4 different sites this year within 8 hours of Lawrence. For Texas A&M, if they don’t get OKC, the other options are all 12+ hours away. If Texas A&M falls to a 4, I could see KU getting preference and A&M getting shipped elsewhere, but if KU and A&M are within a seed line of each other, I think A&M gets OKC. With that said, should Texas A&M get a 4 and get assigned to OKC, I could see them getting paired with Baylor/Texas (whoever finishes the season stronger) as the 4/5 pairing. The best chance for WSU to go to OKC would seem to be if all the Texas teams play fairly poorly in February. Then, with Baylor and Texas out of the picture, I could see WSU as the 5 with Texas A&M as the 4. Shocker fans have plenty of reason to hold out hope, but with OU already snagging a spot, I think WSU’s chances are limited.
#2 - Spokane, WA
Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC
The west is interesting since the list of teams above is not only short, but all are from the same conference. As of today, only Oregon would likely earn a protected seed, and they are far from a guarantee. Making matters worse, if any of these teams are 4 seeds, the committee has to find a 5 seed to send out to Spokane with them. In order to avoid a 2nd round meeting by a pair of Pac 12 teams, I think it is likely that someone outside the Pac 10 gets shipped to Spokane from a long ways away. WSU, Baylor, and Texas would all seem to be candidates as potential 4/5 seeds, but honestly I could see the committee shipping just about anyone outside of the state of Florida up to Spokane as some simple “tough luck”. Gotta fill out the bracket one way or another. If the committee needs to pull someone from more than 1,000 miles away, it is pretty much a crapshoot who they will pick. Miami may be the only school that can safely write off Spokane. I don’t know who it will be, but someone seeded fairly high is probably going to be upset that they are traveling so far away from home. Let’s just hope it isn’t the Shockers.
#1 - Denver, CO
KU, Utah, Texas A&M, Baylor, Texas
Denver is also interesting. I could see KU as a 2 or 3 and then a 4/5 pair out of the remaining teams on the list. Just like Spokane, Denver could be a real possibility for the Shox if the committee needs a non-Pac 12 team to join a Pac 12 team in a 4/5 pairing. I rank Denver as more likely than Spokane simply because it makes sense for Shocker fans while simultaneously fulfilling the committee’s need to send quite a few team’s west of their home city.
Conclusion:
I should probably call Denver my 1A and Spokane my 1B. Unlike many sites where the committee will have a handful of nearby teams to choose from, finding 4 teams in the “protected seeds” class to send to these two locations (and possibly a couple 5 seeds as well) is not going to be an easy task. OKC is not too far behind in 3rd place, but after that, I think there is a big drop off. #4 through #8 might as well all be tied for last.
Caveat:
Every year, several protected seeds go places that just make no sense. Avoiding match ups of conference foes in the early rounds sometimes requires last minute changes. Also, with games being played even on selection Sunday itself, the simple lack of time to reorganize the bracket to “perfection” often comes into play. Don’t take my comments above to be an exact science. The committee will generally think along the lines of what I said in this post, but even still, you must allow at least a 5-10% chance that any team could end up just about anywhere simply because this is a complicated process and will never be perfect.
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