Player Contributions Metric - 2016

[SB Shock]

Players contribution to the team score beyond their own scoring can be estimated. The following charts take in account offensive rebounds, assists, turnover, block, stls, fouls and shooting.

Baker - his worth is well seen here. He does so much more than just scoring himself.
Brown - got off to slow start, but has 5 positive games in row.
Kelly - was off to a solid start, but is struggling.
McDuffy - he is solid and you have to think it will get better.
Fred - he had a terrible game against Seton Hall
Shamet - was off to solid start until his injury
Wessel - kind of neutral
Grady - probably the biggest disappointment. He should easily be positive, but he turns the ball over and takes bad shots and doesn't hit his easy one.
Morris - is slight positive, but not somebody you can count.

[im4wsu]

What is your formula. What is a rebound worth? If offensive the same as defensive? What does a turnover cost? What does a steal gain? What does a personal Foul cost? What is included in "shooting"? Does it measure the guy who knocks the ball off the opponent for out-of-bounds to create a team rebound?

[shock]

McDuffie**

[kochHead]

McDuffie**

THIS.

[SB Shock]

What is your formula. What is a rebound worth? If offensive the same as defensive? What does a turnover cost? What does a steal gain? What does a personal Foul cost? What is included in "shooting"? Does it measure the guy who knocks the ball off the opponent for out-of-bounds to create a team rebound?

1. There are several formulas (9 to be exact). Not really ready to go into exact details until things verify better. Still think some of the weighting needs work.

2. Defensive rebounds are not considered, only offensive. The defensive side you might say is considered through the opponents offensive rebounds.

3. Personal foul is pretty straight forward. See chart 1. Every F is worth 0.806 FT per game, assume 70% FT rate, 0.565 pts per foul.

4. Shooting - are you shooting above or below certain benchmarks from inside the 3pt line and behind. If you shoot below those bench marks you are costing your team points, if you are shooting above then you are creating points. Right now I'm using 33% for 3pt, 50% from inside the arc as bench marks.

5. Individual players don't get credit for creating a team rebound, but it is included in the team stats. Unfortunately this and other detail information is not readily available.

6. It would be nice if you there were some detail like how much a guy scores when he is guarded by different guys. But it is not easily available.

7. Still struggling a little with how much assist is worth, in general it has been found that assist improves a shooter FG% by ~3% to 12% depending on shot location with 8% being the average. If you plot assist vs shooting %, you see the more assist, in general the trend is better shooting pct for the team.

The second chart is the first verification. Ideally the data points should be centered on the blue line, so will probably need to do some adjusting on weighting - but we will see how things kind of fall out over the next 3 games.

[SB Shock]

McDuffie**

Thanks I will fix that next iteration.

[shockmonster]

Any metric struggles more with true team sports. For example, Team and help defense ( is the player in the right spot for help defense) and is that defender a lock down defender who needs less help? Does that player follow the scouting report and leave the player they are guarding to help on the offensive player identified on the scouting report? Does that player block out and not allow their off player the rebound even though they don't get the rebound either? Does that player keep a rebound alive even though they can't get it but another team mate does? All these things are important and all Evan does but get forgotten after an overtime loss.
That is why metrics work better in baseball. The only substitute in Basketball is probably done by Marshall's staff by watching film slowly and marking them down as they happen.

[Ricardo del Rio]

SB,

Is it possible to develop a composite for the 5 players.
Wamukota
Morris
Grady
Nurger
Barney

It seems to me that the center play is woefully lacking.

As always, I could be wrong.

[shockmonster]

SB,

Is it possible to develop a composite for the 5 players.
Wamukota
Morris
Grady
Nurger
Barney

It seems to me that the center play is woefully lacking.

As always, I could be wrong.

That is why I think a rotation of your top 3 of Grady, Morris, and Bush W. may be the ultimate at the five, especially until Grady gets his feet under him again. The 5 is simpler to defend. I wouldn't mind if McDuffie got some minutes at the 4 (with Wessel and Kelly) as his defense improves. Grady and McDuffie could help the offense at both positions.

[SB Shock]

SB,

Is it possible to develop a composite for the 5 players.
Wamukota
Morris
Grady
Nurger
Barney

It seems to me that the center play is woefully lacking.

As always, I could be wrong.

Your wish is my command. I will get it done after getting home from the game tonight. I'm pretty sure that chart will confirm your suspicions.

[SB Shock]

Any metric struggles more with true team sports. For example, Team and help defense ( is the player in the right spot for help defense) and is that defender a lock down defender who needs less help? Does that player follow the scouting report and leave the player they are guarding to help on the offensive player identified on the scouting report? Does that player block out and not allow their off player the rebound even though they don't get the rebound either? Does that player keep a rebound alive even though they can't get it but another team mate does? All these things are important and all Evan does but get forgotten after an overtime loss.
That is why metrics work better in baseball. The only substitute in Basketball is probably done by Marshall's staff by watching film slowly and marking them down as they happen.

actually there is good metric for what you talk about - it is called minutes played.