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  • Take a Step Back, Take a Big Breath

    OK. First, this post may be long, so my apologies.

    I'm writing this because some here are making, what I view anyway, unreasonable expectations, particularly of some young players. The other reason is I wanted to know "What happened and how did we get here".

    I looked back over the last five years of teams, the success they had in building WSU as a power, and one of the best teams outside of the big conferences. I did find a pattern....upperclassmen leadership and depth. From each year's roster, I looked at total minutes played for the season and divided the players into three groups: Primary, Secondary (or top of the bench), and then the balance of the roster.

    2010-11 NIT Champs: This team had 6 Primary players, 3 seniors and 3 juniors, who played 67% of the total minutes. The Secondary players were made up of 4 players, 1 senior, 2 juniors, and 1 sophomore who played 30% of the minutes. The 5 others played 3%. That's 4 seniors, 5 juniors, and 1 sophomore.

    2011-12 NCAA Team: 7, yes, 7 Primary players who all played more than 700 minutes, 5 seniors and 2 juniors played 86% of the minutes. Secondary was made up of 2 players, 1 junior and 1 freshman, who played 8% of the minutes. That left 6% for the 4 other players. That's 5 seniors, 3 juniors, and 1 freshman. A strong group in the Secondary wasn't needed because of the large group of Primary players.

    2012-13 Final 4 Team: 5 Primary players, 3 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 sophomore, played 63% of the minutes. 5 Secondary players, 1 senior, 1 junior, 1 sophomore, and 2 freshmen (who became All American caliber players) played 32% of the time. That's 10 players seeing solid time; 4 seniors, 2 juniors, 1 sophomore, and 2 freshmen. 6 upperclassmen, 2 sophomores (one very experienced) and 2 exceptional freshmen.

    2013-14 Undefeated Regular Season Team: 4 Primary, and somewhat young, players, 1 senior, 1 junior, and 2 sophomores played 59% of the minutes. Back by an experienced Secondary of 5, 3 seniors, 1 junior, and 1 sophomore, played 37% leaving 4% for 3 others. That's 4 seniors, 2 juniors, and 3 sophomores.

    2014-15 Sweet 16 Team: 5 Primary players, 2 seniors and 3 juniors, played 69% of the minutes, the highest % except for the large group of 7 Primary players in in 2011-12 and a little more than the 67% by the 2010-11 team, but they also had 6 players. Another noticeable problem is the Secondary players: only 3 freshmen with no college experience. That's 2 seniors, 3 juniors, and 3 freshmen. The smallest number total, fewest upperclassmen, and only one lacking experience among the Secondary group with no seniors, juniors, OR sophomores. What this class did have was a lot of D-I experience, including post season, among most of the Primary players who carried the team.

    2015-16 Team: This team is made up of 3 very experience players who have played together for 3-4 years. Another senior is D-I experienced, but not with the system as was the 1 year senior in the F4 year as he had a RS year. These are to be the Primary 4, plus someone most likely from the sophomore class. The rest of the class is made up of 4 limited experienced sophomores, one of whom may be the best, but is not eligible yet, 1 senior project with 1 year D-I, and 4 freshmen. That's 4 seniors, NO juniors, 4 sophomores, and 4 freshmen.

    Last year's team escaped without any major injuries, so their bench was not that exposed. Unfortunately, that isn't the case this year. Other than the 4 sure Primary players, the rest of the team has half or less minutes played than the other 4 years (except the large 7 man Primary year which if you add the bottom 2 to their Secondary they would also be more than double the minutes). The only other freshmen turned sophomores in this situation was FVV, Baker, and Cotton and they had more upperclassmen and depth to help them. These 3 also didn't get thrown into a starting role, but earned it as exceptional players, beating out others and were the only sophomores in a Primary group.

    Now, some expect our sophomores to do what our Big 3 did and satisfactorily plug the gaps. What's Morris's problem, how come Brown isn't playing like the end of last year, shouldn't Kelly be a lot better his second year? Well, again, except for the Big 3, no other sophomores over the last 5 years had to be a Primary player or first off the bench, so maybe they are just talented sophomores being sophomores. What's worse is the pressure being applied to the freshmen, whether by critical fans or being thrown in the fire so quickly. I believe our sophomore and freshmen classes are better than they are given credit. When was the last time as fans we were critical of freshmen or sophomores' play because they had to play due to injuries or lack of upperclassmen before last year and this. Not in the previous 4 years unless you were complaining about FVV, Baker, or Cotton because there were none.

    Obviously, I pointed out a problem above not of the players' making.....a lack of experienced Secondary players and upperclassmen. Yes, one can say this is the coaching staff's fault and I'm sure they would agree. Nevertheless, I feel we have a great coach and staff. They are taking strong individuals who may not be 4 and 5 star players at the time of their recruitment, but coaching them well enough over time to hold their own, or better, against teams loaded with 4 and 5 star players. They have been excellent at finding strong jucos to fill gaps as well. I believe they are trying to change that and have more stability within the team with longer term players. Many here have been wanting that.

    Again, I've heard asked about how come Marshall goes with more combo guards than true PGs in his recruiting. Well, maybe he doesn't. He may not always get who he wants, but takes what he feels is the best option. That may be a combo guard with more overall skills and as good at PG as a true PG who isn't the overall talent. It may mean taking a smaller big man than desired because he feels they are a better option to a taller big man with other problems. As much as others don't like hearing it, it is harder for us to get players year in and year out who can come in and be immediate impact players.

    All the players are under unusual circumstances and deserve our strongest support. Get well Fred, Landry and Anton!! Go Shox!! Beat Iowa!!

  • #2
    All the players are under unusual circumstances and deserve our strongest support. Get well Fred, Landry and Anton!! Go Shox!! Beat Iowa!!
    Good post. I consider the quoted portion to be the single most important takeaway :)

    Comment


    • #3
      Love the analysis there. Great points! Particularly about the "primary" players with D-1 experience over the years. We're in a lull right now yes...but thankfully it's only for a short term. Coach Marshall is a pretty damn good coach. I think....wait I know...we'll be ALRIGHT!!!

      SHOCKER 4 LIFE here! Let's get it this year kiddos!!! GO SHOCKERS!!!
      FINAL FOURS:
      1965, 2013

      NCAA Tournament:
      1964, 1965, 1976, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021

      NIT Champs - 1 (2011)

      AP Poll History of Wichita St:
      Number of Times Ranked: 157
      Number of Times Ranked #1: 1
      Number of Times Top 5: 32 (Most Recent - 2017)
      Number of Times Top 10: 73 (Most Recent - 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017)

      Highest Recent AP Ranking:
      #3 - Dec. 2017
      #2 ~ March 2014

      Highest Recent Coaches Poll Ranking:
      #2 ~ March 2014
      Finished 2013 Season #4

      Comment


      • #4
        Incredible post. Solid analysis. 10/10
        People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do. -Isaac Asimov

        Comment


        • #5
          Our Coach is the best coach on the planet. Relax.

          Comment


          • #6
            Using this logic, assuming no roster changes (unlikely), in two years we will have 6 seniors, 6 juniors and 1 sophomore. Where is the Final Four in 2018?
            Where oh where is our T. Boone Pickens.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Ashockalypse View Post
              Our Coach is the best coach on the planet. Relax.
              It's looking like I've accidentally logged onto phog.net every time I check in here lately. It's the attitude that Marshall can do no wrong, and regardless of the current record, and some obvious problems in the lineup, that the current team is still among the elite of D1 ball. It's not. Maybe it will be again, but right now, it's not.

              The media, the pollsters, and the national audience look at "what have you done for me lately". Lately is looking like a 4-game losing streak Monday when the Shox are likely to fall out of "Others Receiving Votes".

              The Jr class this year would have been Morris, Holland, and Derail Green. Was Bowles in that class? You can't lose an entire recruiting class and maintain elite status. The So class is looking like another bust. I still think the So's will get it together, but it's disturbing to see their progress going in reverse.

              Losing an entire recruiting class and having the next one look like they have no clue what they should be doing on the court is not a good sign.

              Marshall is in his learning curve on recruiting and coaching at the level he's risen to. There will be setbacks. Marshall is as responsible for the setbacks as he is for the successes. He can't control injuries, but he has to know they're going to happen and backup personnel need to be in place.

              If Marshall was making MVC wages, the current situation wouldn't be so bad. Marshall is making $3M+ a year. Name one other coach making that kind of $$ who wouldn't be on the hot seat if they started a year the way the Shox started this year.

              I'm not suggesting that Marshall be on the hot seat. I'd expect someone like Lusk at MSU, who makes $300K, to have an entirely useless recruiting class (Morris, Holland, Green) and another that looked lost in their second year (Kelly, Brown, Nurger).

              We better hope the Fr class becomes something absolutely special. When Turgeon had recruiting problems, he left. If Marshall is ever going to leave, an empty Sr class and an underperforming Jr class would be the most likely time to leave.
              The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
              We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.

              Comment


              • #8
                Wow.

                I'm at a loss for words. The overreacting panic that a few have demonstrated on here is just unbelievable. WSU hits a bump in the road for the first time in 5 years, depleted with injuries, and people begin turning their back on Marshall. Just. Like. That.

                I'm honestly embarrassed to root for the same team as some of you.
                Deuces Valley.
                ... No really, deuces.
                ________________
                "Enjoy the ride."

                - a smart man

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Aargh View Post
                  It's looking like I've accidentally logged onto phog.net every time I check in here lately. It's the attitude that Marshall can do no wrong, and regardless of the current record, and some obvious problems in the lineup, that the current team is still among the elite of D1 ball. It's not. Maybe it will be again, but right now, it's not.

                  The media, the pollsters, and the national audience look at "what have you done for me lately". Lately is looking like a 4-game losing streak Monday when the Shox are likely to fall out of "Others Receiving Votes".

                  The Jr class this year would have been Morris, Holland, and Derail Green. Was Bowles in that class? You can't lose an entire recruiting class and maintain elite status. The So class is looking like another bust. I still think the So's will get it together, but it's disturbing to see their progress going in reverse.

                  Losing an entire recruiting class and having the next one look like they have no clue what they should be doing on the court is not a good sign.

                  Marshall is in his learning curve on recruiting and coaching at the level he's risen to. There will be setbacks. Marshall is as responsible for the setbacks as he is for the successes. He can't control injuries, but he can predict they're going to happen and have the backup personnel available.

                  If Marshall was making MVC wages, the current situation wouldn't be so bad. Marshall is making $3M+ a year. Name one other coach making that kind of $$ who wouldn't be on the hot seat if they started a year the way the Shox started this year.

                  I'm not suggesting that Marshall be on the hot seat. I'd expect someone like Lusk at MSU, who makes $300K, to have an entirely useless recruiting class (Morris, Holland, Green) and another that looked lost in their second year (Kelly, Brown, Nurger).

                  We better hope the Fr class becomes something absolutely special. When Turgeon had recruiting problems, he left. If Marshall is ever going to leave, an empty Sr class and an underperforming Jr class would be the most likely time to leave.
                  Pretty much totally disagree with this post and I think you missed the point of the original post. We are quite spoiled and expecting way too much out of the underclassmen. Yes, Marshall is to blame for not having a junior class. He's also to blame for a sweet 16, final four, and three straight 30 win seasons. He makes mistakes, I don't need to not pick his coaching though as he's demonstrated his capability over 5+ seasons and a two game losing streak isn't going to make me start questioning him. A two season winning streak might get me scratching my head a bit.
                  Livin the dream

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    That post questioning Marshall five games into an injury plagued season after he has won about 120+ games the 4 years before may be the worst ever in ShockerNet history, no small feat. Especially since @ShockTalk: started this whole conversation with one of the most thoughtful, logical posts I have ever read.

                    I've never put a poster on an ignore list. Until now.
                    Last edited by shoxlax; November 28, 2015, 11:29 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm not panicked and I don't believe I'm overreacting. I've adjusted my expectations now that I've seen how bad the Shox play when missing one key piece. Shamet shouldn't have been a key piece. There should have been players in classes ahead of him.

                        Why is it that we have a team of Sr's and Fr in November?

                        We've got a 1st team AA SG according to a lot of intelligent analysts. Why on Earth are we playing him at PG? Oh, because we only have one PG remotely ready to play the position, and he's hurt. That PG hurt a hamstring in practice. SN'ers doing searches on the Net concluded that hamstrings take a long time to heal and reinjure easily. FVV was used in a scrimmage (tweaked it) against a weak guarantee game (tweaked it), against Tulsa (tweaked it again).

                        It's becoming apparent that VanVleet and Baker were 5* players that were not evaluated correctly by the recruiting services.

                        Marshall has 2 consecutive recruiting classes that don't look like elite level classes. The Jr class is empty and the So's, to this point, are an an embarrassment.

                        Bill Snyder had an interesting observation. It's hard to get to the top. It's a lot harder to stay there.
                        The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
                        We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Great post ShockTalk. Couldn't agree more. Others, I couldn't agree less.
                          "You Don't Have to Play a Perfect Game. Your Best is Good Enough."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            aargh,

                            Wow, when did you go batshit stupid?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Damn, I'm one of the first to jump off the ledge. But....

                              I'm not worried.

                              I could see a 15+ game winning streak happening.
                              The mountains are calling, and I must go.

                              Comment

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