Fred likely out till December 5th, Saint Louis

[ShockerEngineer]

Unless you are KU

Yep, if you're KU with 8 losses, you're on the bubble... For a #1 seed.. Haha.

[CBB_Fan]

Jerry Palm thought eight losses made the Final Four group a bubble team, pin, but he was pretty much the only one. Go back to the baracketology-type posts regarding that team and see how many of the bracket matrix pundits thought WSU wouldn't get in -- it was a tiny fragment.

This team isn't going to end up 12-6 in a competitive but not terribly imposing Valley, it isn't going to fail to win both the regular season and conference tournament, it isn't going to have a three game losing streak in league play including some genuinely bad losses. And contrary to what the paranoid crowd believes, it is going to get consideration for having its full lineup together and healthy at the end of the year (assuming that's the case, of course), and for having played the Orlando tournament without FVV or Frankamp (and the Iowa debacle without Grady as well).

WSU does have to take care of its business, obviously, and to live up to expectations once the reinforcements arrive -- no question. They can't just say, "Look at us: we are Wichita State!" and expect a spot. But there's absolutely no reason to doubt that things will be taking a dramatic turn for the better, and soon. Come March, the eye test will far more likely be favoring the Shocks than working against them. And even if they do end up underseeded by a line or two, the stories that follow the selections will be about how WSU is one of those teams no one wants to have to face.

The difference between this group and 2012 is that the Final Four group started healthy. Sure, you can criticize the bad losses, but the tournament selection team could look to the games before Tennessee and see that we were a quality team when healthy. It is unquestionably better to be healthy in the OOC and injured in MVC than vice-versa, both because a majority of quality opponents are in the non-con and because it is more respected. Competing against the rest of the nation shows we are a good team, dominating the MVC just shows that the MVC might be bad that year.

I haven't done the math, but others have. I recall a mid-20s RPI if we basically go undefeated in our quality contests, 40s if we go as expected. Maybe 50-70 worst case scenario, but let's ignore that. Missouri State missed the tournament in 2006 with an RPI of 21, because they didn't have the wins against the top RPI teams and were 22-8. Texas Tech missed it in 1997 with an RPI of 29, going 19-9 with only one decent quality win (but they also had to forfeit games so it wouldn't have mattered). Hofstra missed it in 2006 with an RPI of 30, 26-7 record and having missed their two good chances for a solid win in the non-conference. Air Force had quality wins (ranked most of 2007), but losing their last 4 games knocked them out even with an RPI of 30.

Dayton in 2008 might be the best example. With an RPI of 32, they had the numbers to get in. They started the season 14-1, got ranked, and then finished with an abysmal record of 23-11, 8-8 in A10 play. However, at one point they were 17-3. They went 6-8 over their final 14 games after losing starter Charlie Little (forward) and highly freshman Chris Wright (same position). Wright returned, but that was not enough to excuse the bad losses in the eye's of the tournament.

Another example would be our NIT championship run. Our Final RPI was 35, KenPom had us at 26, and we had a 24-8 record. Good RPI, relatively fine win-loss, solid on the eye-test. #4 seed in the NIT. We just didn't get the quality wins, even though we had good opportunities. Fell to two Final Four teams, @#17 San Diego State, lost to Missouri State both times, lost to Indiana State in the MVC tournament. Get just 1 quality win and we easily make the NCAA tournament (losing to VCU basically knocked us out; we know how that season ended for them).

Same thing this season. We WILL be one of the best teams in the country in March. We will have a good enough RPI to make the tournament. We will pass the KenPom test. But will the wins be there?

[ShoxRoxMySox]

Hilarious post on mvcfans.com…

“by Cdizzle » November 30th, 2015, 3:08 pm

WSU is going to Evansville the s*** out of the league. In a year when Evansville may actually compete for the league title.

The irony.”

I'm dying. That's hilarious

[RoyalShock]

I fear the RPI lectures are going to have to start earlier this year than most.

Remember folks, our RPI doesn't matter. The RPI of the teams we play (and the outcomes of those game), are what matters. Naturally, there is a loose correlation, but that's all it is. Ask Missouri State. Stellar RPI in 2006 (25th, I believe due to the overall strength of the MVC), but a lack of high quality wins (if I recall correctly) put them on the bubble. Yes, they probably should have been selected, but other parts of their resume made it at least arguable.

[Kel Varnsen]

I wish the committee would just do away with the RPI. The first release of the rankings showed the top two teams were Davidson and Little Rock for God's sake. KenPom, Sagarin, anything would be better.

That said, we're stuck with it.

[AZ Shocker]

Everything...and I mean EVERYTHING depends on one hamstring. Low seed...high seed....don't matter. It's all about the hammy from this point.

[shocker3]

I fear the RPI lectures are going to have to start earlier this year than most.

Remember folks, our RPI doesn't matter. The RPI of the teams we play (and the outcomes of those game), are what matters. Naturally, there is a loose correlation, but that's all it is. Ask Missouri State. Stellar RPI in 2006 (25th, I believe due to the overall strength of the MVC), but a lack of high quality wins (if I recall correctly) put them on the bubble. Yes, they probably should have been selected, but other parts of their resume made it at least arguable.

I know that is the way the committee has been using the RPI for about the last 10 years. But why do they bother to weight road wins and losses in the RPI if they aren't going to use that number? That is the only place where the weight shows up- the actual RPI calculation. In hockey they make a few more adjustments to the RPI and then they use that number to choose the at large teams and to seed all 16 teams. They call it the pairwise rankings.

They take the human factor totally out of the selections. I think coaches and fans like this system better because it seems more objective and they know what they need to do to improve their chances of getting an at large bid. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

[RoyalShock]

I know that is the way the committee has been using the RPI for about the last 10 years. But why do they bother to weight road wins and losses in the RPI if they aren't going to use that number?

Because it's an important factor in determining how good a team is, which is used only to identify good wins and bad losses when discussing a particular team's worthiness.

[Stickboy46]

Per Jake Schlegel (KAKE)
"#Shockers trying to get Fred VanVleet as conditioned as possible without re-injuring himself. Marshall doesn't know if he will play Saturday"

[SB Shock]

RPI is not adjusted for injuries, correct? While I understand the need for quality wins, I'm not totally convinced we wouldn't be seeded above our RPI due to the extreme injury circumstances.

RPI is not adjusted for injuries.

On the CBS basketball podcast today they talked a good portion about WSU and and addressed injuries and how the selection committee consider injuries. The selection committee does take injuries into to account where they seed teams, but if you don't have a quality wins it not going to matter. They also said they thought WSU hadn't been given them respect they deserved in seeding during this run and so don't see the NCAA giving them a break due to injuries this year.

[Kung Wu]

Everything...and I mean EVERYTHING depends on one hamstring. Low seed...high seed....don't matter. It's all about the hammy from this point.

Great post!

The Golden Hammy is potentially worth many millions of dollars to the MVC conference.

[Kung Wu]

They also said they thought WSU hadn't been given them respect they deserved in seeding during this run and so don't see the NCAA giving them a break due to injuries this year.

Please explain.

[Cdizzle]

If Fred plays, WSU has a great chance to beat St. Louis.

If Fred doesn't play, WSU has a great chance to beat St. Louis.

Fred not playing and WSU still winning is probably best case for Saturday. Lets FVV heal, and lets the current players finally get a little payoff for their recent efforts.

[BostonWu]

Without having any inside info, for me personally I'm going to cringe if Fred's in the lineup vs St. Louis. I'm coming from the standpoint that hammies are tricky...might I say mysterious injuries and I just get the feeling we have one shot of rehab and rest and the next time he tweeks it might be enough to effectively render him useless for the remainder of his Shocker career. I'll admit I'm probably paranoid with everything that's gone wrong to this point but I feel we're better served exercising extreme\paranoid caution. If we drop the next 2-3 games there's still something to play for if Fred can get healthy come conference time. If he ends up reagrevating the hammy then all hope is lost.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I am in the camp of being extra safe than sorry.

There are just too many stories about a too early comeback and re-injury. If he re-injures it, then the Shocks will be duck soap in conference play.

I don't think Tyrone is going to morph into Magic Johnson in the next few weeks, but I could be wrong.