I wanted to wait until I was on a computer to issue my thoughts on this, as trying to type this on my phone would have driven me nuts.
I'm of the opinion that if the first change is to the shot-clock being shortened, then things will go downhill in a hurry, and scoring will actually get lower.
The reason the 24-second shot clock works well for the NBA right now is it is a ridiculously long season, nobody can play tough, physical defense every game. Moving the shot clock to 24-or-30 seconds without other needed mitigations will actually cause defenses to get more aggressive. Just think about how many times teams against us had the shot clock down under 10 seconds before they shot. They typically ended in poor shots because execution is typically not very good in these situations at the college level. In addition, teams knowing they only have to defend for 24 seconds will cause defenses to get more aggressive and physical. This combination of less time for execution combined with more aggressive defense will result in even lower shooting percentages that the increase in pace will not be able to account for.
In my opinion the first thing to be fixed is the block-charge call. It took several years of emphasis before the NBA got the players adjusted to their new rules, but you can see the difference in fewer players just becoming stationary objects to be run over. There is more athletic play at the rim and the advantage has swung back in favor of the offense. The next thing that all officials should all be run through the NCAA, not this "conference contractor" junk that goes on now. There's a reason why the NCAA tournament is actually more consistent and enjoyable to watch overall. The officials get their cues from the NCAA. These two items will handle the biggest issues most people have regarding the defense having a disproportionate advantage and officials being very inconsistent. I'd imagine those two changes will have trickle down effects into reducing the physical nature of the game and will open up scoring quite a bit.
My primary concern with the 24-or-30 second shot clock is that it is attempting to address the symptom of low scoring, as opposed to the cause. Artificially increasing scoring by increasing possessions is not going to make the game more enjoyable to watch, and it might actually make it uglier. Treat the root of the problem by addressing the overly physical nature of the game and adding consistency to officiating.
Edit: One more item, for those who think WSU may be at a disadvantage if the NCAA tries to reduce the physical nature of the game, remember how well we did last year when the rules supposedly cut out all the "physical play" early in the season. WSU is very good at defense because of their athleticism and ability to be in the right position. Additionally, we don't set up to try and take charges, but instead look to block shots at the rim or build a wall for people to shoot over.
I'm of the opinion that if the first change is to the shot-clock being shortened, then things will go downhill in a hurry, and scoring will actually get lower.
The reason the 24-second shot clock works well for the NBA right now is it is a ridiculously long season, nobody can play tough, physical defense every game. Moving the shot clock to 24-or-30 seconds without other needed mitigations will actually cause defenses to get more aggressive. Just think about how many times teams against us had the shot clock down under 10 seconds before they shot. They typically ended in poor shots because execution is typically not very good in these situations at the college level. In addition, teams knowing they only have to defend for 24 seconds will cause defenses to get more aggressive and physical. This combination of less time for execution combined with more aggressive defense will result in even lower shooting percentages that the increase in pace will not be able to account for.
In my opinion the first thing to be fixed is the block-charge call. It took several years of emphasis before the NBA got the players adjusted to their new rules, but you can see the difference in fewer players just becoming stationary objects to be run over. There is more athletic play at the rim and the advantage has swung back in favor of the offense. The next thing that all officials should all be run through the NCAA, not this "conference contractor" junk that goes on now. There's a reason why the NCAA tournament is actually more consistent and enjoyable to watch overall. The officials get their cues from the NCAA. These two items will handle the biggest issues most people have regarding the defense having a disproportionate advantage and officials being very inconsistent. I'd imagine those two changes will have trickle down effects into reducing the physical nature of the game and will open up scoring quite a bit.
My primary concern with the 24-or-30 second shot clock is that it is attempting to address the symptom of low scoring, as opposed to the cause. Artificially increasing scoring by increasing possessions is not going to make the game more enjoyable to watch, and it might actually make it uglier. Treat the root of the problem by addressing the overly physical nature of the game and adding consistency to officiating.
Edit: One more item, for those who think WSU may be at a disadvantage if the NCAA tries to reduce the physical nature of the game, remember how well we did last year when the rules supposedly cut out all the "physical play" early in the season. WSU is very good at defense because of their athleticism and ability to be in the right position. Additionally, we don't set up to try and take charges, but instead look to block shots at the rim or build a wall for people to shoot over.
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