AP Voters as a Barometer to NCAA Tournament Seeding?

[WuShock Reaper]

I looked at the AP Voters data for the last five years to see if there might me any predictiveness and this is what I found out:

Seeds 1 thru 4 (2010 to 2014)
16 teams per year for a total of 80 teams
Teams Ranked 1 thru 4 were 1-Seeds
Teams Ranked 5 thru 8 were 2-Seeds
Teams Ranked 9 thru 12 were 3-Seeds
Teams Ranked 13 thru 16 were 4-Seeds

AP Voters predicted correctly 47 (58.8%) of the teams exactly according to their actual seed of +/- 0.
AP Voters predicted correctly 74 (92.5%) of the teams exactly according to their actual seed +/- 1.
AP Voters predicted correctly 79 (98.8%) of the teams exactly according to their actual seed +/- 2.

Only one time did a team get really screwed by the committee when compared to the AP Voters. In 2012, Murray State was given a 6 seed, when the AP Voters were thinking they were more like a 3 seed.

So with our current AP Ranking we are #8, giving us a 2-Seed. Will it hold? Depends on what we do this next week and what happens around us, but I like our odds.

[OregonShocker]

I don't think there's any way they'll give us a two seed, unless the top half of the field COMPLETELY folds in their respective tourneys. As I interpret your numbers, there's only a 58.8% chance we'll be a 2 seed and a 98.8% chance we'll be a 4 seed. I'd be happy with a four.

[jdshock]

I don't think there's any way they'll give us a two seed, unless the top half of the field COMPLETELY folds in their respective tourneys. As I interpret your numbers, there's only a 58.8% chance we'll be a 2 seed and a 98.8% chance we'll be a 4 seed. I'd be happy with a four.

98.8% chance of a 4 seed or higher is what the stats say.

[Cdizzle]

98.8% chance of a 4 seed or higher is what the stats say.

Based on the final poll. This is not the final poll.

[jdshock]

Based on the final poll. This is not the final poll.

Right. I was just clarifying that it's not a 99% chance we'll be a 4 seed

[MadaboutWu]

Presumably you could refine the numbers as well in a way which would slightly reduce our chances: being the lowest ranked team in the seed line must make deviation a little bigger.