SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us

[Brian]

Its way more complicated then 2 teams playing 2 games. Nonsense to choose or think that one could!

[SB Shock]

against your other hypothetical team that is 5-0 that with wins against say mix of low 100 and with a mid-200 thrown in

Let's also assume that SOS would be roughly equivalent.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Fair enough

This article makes a similar argument

That's an absolutely incredible find jdshock! It is extremely relevant to what I've been trying to say all along. Very well thought out and even mentions the 1/175/176/351 grouping that I did earlier in this thread.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So I have a hypothetical team that beats a Top 5 team and loses to a top 5 team and has 3 additional wins against Mid-200 teams? Where do you rank this hypothetical team?

Compared to whom? All my questions gave 2 teams to be compared.

against your other hypothetical team that is 5-0 that with wins against say mix of low 100 and with a mid-200 thrown in

Let's also assume that SOS would be roughly equivalent.

Well that was confusing. Just to be clear, you seem to have introduced 2 new hypothetical teams. Neither of these are MY hypothetical 5-0 team. You mean YOUR hypothetical 5-0 team. I welcome your input, but please don’t introduce your own hypothetical example and claim that it is mine.

Anyway, just to make sure I have your new scenario summarized correctly…

Team C, 4-1, has wins over 3, 249, 250, 251. Lost to #4 team in the country.
Team D, 5-0, has wins over 120, 121, 122, 123, and 250. No losses.
The SOS of Teams C & D is to be assumed to be roughly equivalent.

Is this a fair summary of what you are asking?

If so, I’d have to say these teams appear fairly close. I might lean toward Team D just because they haven’t lost yet, but I could see an argument being made either way. These teams have different W/L records AND different types of schedules. That combination creates a lot of variables to consider.

So what is your point in introducing this scenario?

[Cdizzle]

Will WSU be ranked to start next season? Discuss.

[wufan]

That's an absolutely incredible find jdshock! It is extremely relevant to what I've been trying to say all along. Very well thought out and even mentions the 1/175/176/351 grouping that I did earlier in this thread.

The takeaway from that is two fold:

1) Presentation. He asks the question of how those should be ranked and then gives an answer (quickly).

2) Information. The author gives detailed information on what he looked at and the many things that go into ranking that SOS wouldn't tell you.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Wufan, those are fair points. I make complete "A to Z" arguments in a single post all the time. I wanted to try a step by step approach for a change. Then people started questioning what my definition of "is" is instead of just playing along.

I had/have plenty of detailed information to give. I just wanted to release it step by step rather than all at once so I could try to answer questions along the way.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Here is a graph showing the likelihood of winning against any given D1 team, 1 through 351. I plotted this for teams ranked #10, #15, and #20. Currently WSU is #15 (give or take) in most people's polls. If you think WSU should be ranked higher, then use the #10 graph. If you think the Shox should be ranked lower right now, use the #20 graph.

Either way, you will come to the same conclusion. We have had the topic of linearity come up before, but this is where it truly comes into play. Since this graph is far from linear (it is very steep on the left side, very flat on the right side) we cannot say that beating two teams equidistant from the midpoint (such as 1 & 351) is the same as beating two teams at the midpoint (such as 175 & 176).

If WSU (assuming they are #15) were to play #1 and #351, they would have a combined 16% chance of going 2-0. If WSU were to play #175 and #176, they would have a combined 83% chance of going 2-0.

SOS would say that both 2-0 records were obtained against the same SOS, but it is obvious that the 2-0 against the great team and the terrible team is the more impressive feat.

To those of you who said you chose Team B in my initial scenario, do you still stand by your assessment, or have I convinced you otherwise?

[SB Shock]

But you took team D.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

SB, give me a good-faith answer to my question about A and B to show me that you aren't just here to troll and I promise I'll give you a good response regarding your newly introduced C & D.

[Cdizzle]

Has anyone played a road game yet?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

But you took team D.

I'm feeling generous today. You haven't answered me yet, but I'll answer you anyway. Here's your scenario one more time:

Team C, 4-1, has wins over 3, 249, 250, 251. Lost to #4 team in the country.
Team D, 5-0, has wins over 120, 121, 122, 123, and 250. No losses.
The SOS of Teams C & D is to be assumed to be roughly equivalent.

The simplified answer is that I chose Team D because Team C lost a game. Team C beat a top 5 opponent, but they did so only once in two tries. That takes away part of the luster of the win and is a big reason why I choose undefeated Team D.

Check out the following numbers.

If the #2 ranked team in the country played Team C's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 4.2 wins.
If the #2 ranked team in the country played Team D's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 4.8 wins.

If the #20 ranked team in the country played Team C's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 3.3 wins.
If the #20 ranked team in the country played Team D's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 4.2 wins.

If the #100 ranked team in the country played Team C's schedule, the would have an expected win total of 2.6 wins.
If the #100 ranked team in the country played Team D's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 3.0 wins.

If the #200 ranked team in the country played Team C's schedule, the would have an expected win total of 1.9 wins.
If the #200 ranked team in the country played Team D's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 1.9 wins.

If the #250 ranked team in the country played Team C's schedule, the would have an expected win total of 1.5 wins.
If the #250 ranked team in the country played Team D's schedule, they would have an expected win total of 1.4 wins.

Whichever case you look at (2, 20, 100, 200, 250), 5-0 vs Team D's schedule is more impressive (even if only slightly so) than 4-1 vs Team C's schedule.

OK, now it is your turn SB Shock

[WstateU]