SOS - What it does and doesn't tell us

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Fine, I'll bite. I chose team a to be ranked higher. But if further information shows me something, I reserve the right to change my answer.

Exactly what I've been saying all along!!!!!!

If new information comes into play, you are all free to explain why you think the new information changes things. However, for now, everything outside my simple scenario is left outside for a reason.

[im4wsu]

This conversation was started in the games of interest thread, but I felt that it would be better to move it into its own thread instead.

Original question:

Team A is 2-0. Beat a team ranked in the top 10 and a terrible 300+ team.
Team B is 2-0. Beat Vermont and Louisiana Lafayette, who are a couple of mediocre teams each ranked in the mid 100s and each with 11-10 records.

You know nothing else about either team. Based on admittedly very limited information, which team do you rank higher?

I've already seen some complaints that the premise isn't valid. I think the premise is very valid. If I take the next step in my logical progression and you feel my logic doesn't hold, then call me out on it. However, for now, I think this is a very valid starting point.

What "ranking" are you asking about? The title says SOS, but are you talking about "SOS rank" or are you talking about "poll ranking" or "statistical model ranking" or "predictive model ranking"? The SOS might be nearly equal in the example, but if Vermont, Louisiana Lafayette and Team A opponents have a ranking, what is the ranking (by whatever system you have selected for the other teams) for Team A and Team B.

If Team A was ranked #1 and beat each of the two teams at home by one point and Team B was ranked 300+ and beat two 150 ranked teams, I think the conclusion is different than if Team A is ranked #300 and beats a Top 10 by any score and a 300+ peer by 10 points and Team B is a #1 team that, qt home, beats their 150 opponents by 1 point each.

So the valid question would be, Team A beats two opponents and Team B beats two opponents, which would you rank for purposes of {insert the appropriate descriptor here} higher?

[WSU and Reds Fan]

Based upon what I was given lets say Team A beats # 5 and # 315 for an average of 320/2=160.
Team B plays 155 and 165 for an average of 320/2=160
Then both have played just as tough of a schedule.
I would believe in this situation that Team A would have played the tougher schedule, but the math says they are the same. Over the course of time we can see whether the # 5 remains. Over 30 games it would be tougher to beat 15 teams in the top 10.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

wow im4wsu, that's some top notch trolling right there. Kudos to you.

[OTR Shockfan]

Call me a simpleton ,,but ,,My opinion of rpi ,power rankings and SOS , are all pretty much the same ,,Garbage. At least from the start. Mainly because the whole thing is based on speculation before any games are played. kind of like the theory in computer programming ,Garbage in Garbage out. If you are starting by just saying certain teams and conferences are good without any real evidence(games played) how can you say this team or that team are good? There are exceptions, case in point Kentucky,,there is and was a there there (talent and size) by the bushel load. But on most "normal" yrs you don't have that disparity. Certain conferences and teams get credit for history. Even when that in the end proves false in a current yr. Case in point, people were expecting Nebraska to be way better then they have proven out to be. Some would say the same for Memphis, and even Alabama, at the same time Seton Hall is a "surprise" and some would say the same for Depaul who'd a thunk they would have looked so good at the start of the yr ? So ,,, in essence I guess I;m sayin thank got that's why they play the games, and the tourny So we can all find out who really is a contender and who ended up a Pretender.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Based upon what I was given lets say Team A beats # 5 and # 315 for an average of 320/2=160.
Team B plays 155 and 165 for an average of 320/2=160
Then both have played just as tough of a schedule.
I would believe in this situation that Team A would have played the tougher schedule, but the math says they are the same. Over the course of time we can see whether the # 5 remains. Over 30 games it would be tougher to beat 15 teams in the top 10.

Excellent post. Thank you!

[im4wsu]

wow im4wsu, that's some top notch trolling right there. Kudos to you.

Why is it you cannot answer a question? Your title says SOS, but your question says rank? Asking about that is not trolling!


You ask for critique, but you try to blow it off. There is nothing I asked about that could possibly be considered trolling. You stated the incomplete and incorrect premises and now have to stick to it, so you just dismiss any questions.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Call me a simpleton ,,but ,,My opinion of rpi ,power rankings and SOS , are all pretty much the same ,,Garbage. At least from the start. Mainly because the whole thing is based on speculation before any games are played. kind of like the theory in computer programming ,Garbage in Garbage out. If you are starting by just saying certain teams and conferences are good without any real evidence(games played) how can you say this team or that team are good? There are exceptions, case in point Kentucky,,there is and was a there there (talent and size) by the bushel load. But on most "normal" yrs you don't have that disparity. Certain conferences and teams get credit for history. Even when that in the end proves false in a current yr. Case in point, people were expecting Nebraska to be way better then they have proven out to be. Some would say the same for Memphis, and even Alabama, at the same time Seton Hall is a "surprise" and some would say the same for Depaul who'd a thunk they would have looked so good at the start of the yr ? So ,,, in essence I guess I;m sayin thank got that's why they play the games, and the tourny So we can all find out who really is a contender and who ended up a Pretender.

You are the winner of the "Obscure and unrelated post of the day"! Congrats!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Why is it you cannot answer a question? Your title says SOS, but your question says rank? Asking about that is not trolling!


You ask for critique, but you try to blow it off. There is nothing I asked about that could possibly be considered trolling. You stated the incomplete and incorrect premises and now have to stick to it, so you just dismiss any questions.

im4wsu, we have had our share of back-and-forths. I'm pretty much convinced that we live on different planets.

However, I'll give you once last response. Give me time to put it together and I'll give you an honest answer to your previous post.

[The Mad Hatter]

See my post #34 in this thread. It answers what you said. You are waaaaay overcomplicating things.

No it doesn't. If you are going to ask me to make a determination on a set amount of information, the response that there isn't enough information to say is always a legitimate response.

Here, let me give you an example:

Car A leaves Cleveland at 6:00 am. Car B leaves Chicago at 9:00 am. Which car gets to their destination first?

So, what is your answer. And you can't judge my premise. You can't say you need more information. You just have to answer because I say so.

[OTR Shockfan]

I'd Like to add , did anyone see Tulsa being undefeated in conf play , with the coaching change ?? Did anyone expect Michigan to be 13 -8 at this point ? sometimes it just doesn't happen the way people speculate

[wu_shizzle]

If there were 2 or 3 stragglers, you would have a point SHOXMVC. However, it appears that 90% of the responders so far still can't even grasp the basic initial point. Moving on wouldn't accomplish anything.

It seems logical that if you're not getting the response you desire, than maybe you should change your approach.

Right now, this seems tedious and I feel like stifling discussion with cat pictures.

[SB Shock]

Let's simplify the question even further.

Team A is 1-0, beat a top 10 team.
Team B is 2-0, both against teams around 150.

Information is clearly limited, but this would seem to me to be an obvious scenario to rank Team A higher assuming the information above is ALL that you know.

Do those of you who said Team B previously still say Team B in this scenario?

How do we know that No. 10 Team A won't be 15-15 after 30 games - they were just overanked in preseason polls?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Car A leaves Cleveland at 6:00 am. Car B leaves Chicago at 9:00 am. Which car gets to their destination first?

Given that you did not tell me which car has a longer trip to make, I can only assume there is a 50% chance that Car A has the shorter trip and a 50% chance that it has the longer trip.

All else being equal, the car leaving at 6:00 getting to its destination first is the more likely conclusion. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL IS THE KEY STATEMENT THERE.

If you provided me with more information, I would reserve the right to explain why the new information possibly changed my final answer.

There, that was easy. I answered your question with very limited information. Why can't people do the same for mine.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

How do we know that No. 10 Team A won't be 15-15 after 30 games - they were just overanked in preseason polls?

Might happen. Might not happen. You just don't know. Gotta form an opinion based on what you do know.