2010 - 2015: Consistency in the Marshall Era

[Play Angry]

Below are the KenPom ratings for every season dating back to our NIT title season.



2010-11: 25 (offensive efficiency 30, defensive efficiency 40) - NIT Championship
2011-12: 13 (offensive efficiency 14, defensive efficiency 31) - 2nd Round NCAA
2012-13: 17 (offensive efficiency 30, defensive efficiency 25) - Final Four NCAA
2013-14: 5 (offensive efficiency 8, defensive efficiency 12) - 3rd Round NCAA
2014-15: 13 (offensive efficiency 13, defensive efficiency 46) - TBD


What strikes me the most is that we've had very, very similar teams from a macro standpoint for 4 consecutive years now following the NIT title run. Also, it was somewhat surprising that our offensive efficiency is higher so far for this year's team than the senior-laden Stutz/Ragland/Murry/Kyles team. Tempo was so much faster that year compared to now (126th vs. 327th).

Overall, we are tracking in-line with the data of the prior three seasons. The extremely slow tempo of this year's team minimizes possessions and makes W/L's a little more difficult to predict since deviations have a larger effect. To oversimplify, this year's team is susceptible to playing down to the level of its competition given the small number of possessions each game despite (usually) enjoying an edge in efficiency on both offense and defense. Conversely, that same slow tempo grants us a better chance against statistically superior teams (a better "giant-killer" skill set).

Truly remarkable that we have maintained such a consistently high level these last 4 years in light of all the player turnover. HCGM is alright at this job.

[Play Angry]

2 weeks later, our KenPom rating has improved from 13 to 12.

RPI Forecast now projects the Shocks to go 16-2 in MVC play.

Maybe the chicken littles over did it after the GW game?

[Shock Therapy]

2 weeks later, our KenPom rating has improved from 13 to 12.

RPI Forecast now projects the Shocks to go 16-2 in MVC play.

Maybe the chicken littles over did it after the GW game?

Hardly. It's easy to say that in hindsight. At the time, it looked like Shaq was done and none of the new guys could step up consistently. We were on a downward trajectory. Now we are not. The team is still on shaky ground though. We're in good, not great shape. I'll be more comfortable when we start to get consistent production out of the newcomers. We still have no depth.

[Play Angry]

I guess. Some of us knew it was the annual slump and said so, most thought it was a paradigm shift and we were destined for 4-5 losses in league play.

[jocoshock]

Hardly. It's easy to say that in hindsight. At the time, it looked like Shaq was done and none of the new guys could step up consistently. We were on a downward trajectory. Now we are not. The team is still on shaky ground though. We're in good, not great shape. I'll be more comfortable when we start to get consistent production out of the newcomers. We still have no depth.

True. We string 4-5 games like Loyola and we can upgrade our status. Need to SHOW CONSISTENCY...

[SHOCKvalue]

I guess. Some of us knew it was the annual slump and said so, most thought it was a paradigm shift and we were destined for 4-5 losses in league play.

In defense of "chicken littles", even Mike Kennedy said in the Bradley postgame as few days ago that he would be ecstatic (or some such) if the Shocks were able to mirror the second half of the season with the first half season with respect to W-L records (13-2 vs. 13-2 at that time). His thrust being that it would be a great outcome, but not necessarily expected.

[jdshock]

Am I reading it right? Our adjusted offense is essentially tied with Kentucky's? It's just a difference of certainly less than half of a tenth.

It'd be interesting to play a team like Oklahoma with an adjusted defense rated similarly to our offense and an adjusted offense rated similarly to our defense.

Edit: I want to make it clear, I'm not comparing us to Kentucky. Kentucky's adjusted defense is number one and it's not particularly close.

[WSUwatcher]

2 weeks later, our KenPom rating has improved from 13 to 12.

RPI Forecast now projects the Shocks to go 16-2 in MVC play.

Maybe the chicken littles over did it after the GW game?

Yes, they did. Wen you look up and see things falling, it's important to wait to see whether they're raindrops or chunks of sky. A team's trajectory based on a few games is often about as meaningful as global temperatures cherry picked by a guy who manufactures hockey sticks.

[Play Angry]

True. We string 4-5 games like Loyola and we can upgrade our status. Need to SHOW CONSISTENCY...

While I agree consistency is great and that we all want more of it, folks on here have been egregiously guilty of selling this team short following close wins against teams of a lesser caliber. That is what really good teams do - they find a way to win even when they are playing poorly.

There has been one year, ever, in the history of WSU basketball where we were significantly "more consistent" than this year's team. We are performing right now at a level that has been touched by other Shocker teams only a few times in the last 50 years. That. Is. AWESOME. Not perfect, but flipping unbelievable and worthy of excessive praise and adulation from the team's "fanatics."

Posters' collective eye test is skewed by last year's performance and it is frustrating to watch us overreact to each loss while simultaneously "underreact" to most wins. This is a team whose ceiling is every bit as high as the Final Four team or the great 2012 squad, but yet there are folks on here who still say things like "Well, we're not quite as good as that NIT title team yet, but I reserve the right to change my mind." That's fine, but it's also dumber than a box of rocks when every statistical metric available screams otherwise into their dour faces.

We are having an absolutely incredible year, and better yet, there is still room for improvement. Fans should celebrate and puff their chests a little. This is the greatest stretch in Shocker basketball history, and we are watching one of the greatest teams in Shocker basketball history.

Embrace the awesome.

[Rlh04d]

Hardly. It's easy to say that in hindsight. At the time, it looked like Shaq was done and none of the new guys could step up consistently. We were on a downward trajectory. Now we are not. The team is still on shaky ground though. We're in good, not great shape. I'll be more comfortable when we start to get consistent production out of the newcomers. We still have no depth.

And it's easy to predict the sky is falling because of a few close games down a starter early in the season, before the freshmen have had a real chance to come around.

I disagree that we have no depth. Shaq's become a reliable 6th man, who compares well statistically to the 6th man on each of our previous three teams -- he's not clearly better than any of them, but he's not clearly worse, either. I'd also take our 10th man this year (Henderson) over our 10th man in any previous years (Derail Green, Jake White x2). Hell, I might take our 12th man (Glass) over them, too.

In many ways our bench is actually doing better this year than last year. Points per minute from guys 6-10 are up (.2784 to .2572), assists are up (.0429 to .023842), TOs are down (.0510 to .05227), steals are up (.0197 to .0165), etc. There are only a few clear levels where our bench is worse: rebounds (.1589 to .20131), free throws (.0882 to .1), and blocks (.0278 to .0413).

Which basically just says what we already knew: our bench is a lot stronger at the backcourt positions than the frontcourt. But saying we have no depth is clearly incorrect. We just don't have good depth where we're weakest.

[WuDrWu]

While I agree consistency is great and that we all want more of it, folks on here have been egregiously guilty of selling this team short following close wins against teams of a lesser caliber. That is what really good teams do - they find a way to win even when they are playing poorly.

There has been one year, ever, in the history of WSU basketball where we were significantly "more consistent" than this year's team. We are performing right now at a level that has been touched by other Shocker teams only a few times in the last 50 years. That. Is. AWESOME. Not perfect, but flipping unbelievable and worthy of excessive praise and adulation from the team's "fanatics."

Posters' collective eye test is skewed by last year's performance and it is frustrating to watch us overreact to each loss while simultaneously "underreact" to most wins. This is a team whose ceiling is every bit as high as the Final Four team or the great 2012 squad, but yet there are folks on here who still say things like "Well, we're not quite as good as that NIT title team yet, but I reserve the right to change my mind." That's fine, but it's also dumber than a box of rocks when every statistical metric available screams otherwise into their dour faces.

We are having an absolutely incredible year, and better yet, there is still room for improvement. Fans should celebrate and puff their chests a little. This is the greatest stretch in Shocker basketball history, and we are watching one of the greatest teams in Shocker basketball history.

Embrace the awesome.

Brilliant. I know at some point it will end, it might be tomorrow and it might be 20 years from now or anywhere in between, but it will end and how far we'll far I don't know, but what I do know, is that while we're on this run, I'm going to continue to enjoy every flipping moment like it's my last.

And I thank Gregg for that.

[shockmonster]

We have a lot of fans who believe that they are entitled to always have a team to cheer for that is a Top 10 team and lack a feeling of thankfulness for what they've been given. I think that we have a really good team who belongs in the Top 20 and can be a factor in the NCAA Tournament if we get some breaks. I don't think that we are quite as explosive, or deep as last year's team, but again if breaks go our way, we may be able to go further in the Tournament this year. But I have to admit that I saw an ugly side of our fans when things didn't go our way, and they over reacted to a temporary downward trend. No team (there could always be a first) goes an entire year at a high rate of play without hills and valleys. When I talk about breaks going our way, we need to be playing on the top of one of our hills during March, and not playing in one of our valleys at that time. This is not a given but a privilege and I'm going to have a good time either way.

[Play Angry]

The defense has really, really improved over the last three weeks. This year's squad currently has the second-best defensive efficiency (on a relative basis) of any HCGM coached team at WSU. I believe it is actually the most efficient on per-possession basis, but scoring is down across the board (explaining the drop in standing relative to other teams). Below is the current KenPom breakdown:


2014-15: 9 (offensive efficiency 18, defensive efficiency 24)

Tempo has continued to be a grindingly slow 321st in the country, which is pretty much where we've been since December.

[jdshock]

The defense has really, really improved over the last three weeks. This year's squad currently has the second-best defensive efficiency (on a relative basis) of any HCGM coached team at WSU. I believe it is actually the most efficient on per-possession basis, but scoring is down across the board (explaining the drop in standing relative to other teams). Below is the current KenPom breakdown:


2014-15: 9 (offensive efficiency 18, defensive efficiency 24)

Tempo has continued to be a grindingly slow 321st in the country, which is pretty much where we've been since December.

I think most would agree it's gotten better. Weren't we in the 60s at one point earlier in the season? I don't think the site tracks it, but it'd be cool to see how we compare to other teams over the last month.

[Play Angry]

I think most would agree it's gotten better. Weren't we in the 60s at one point earlier in the season? I don't think the site tracks it, but it'd be cool to see how we compare to other teams over the last month.

Agreed- that would be very interesting. Not sure if there is a way to do that.

And you are right- the lowest I remember seeing for our defensive efficiency was ~61 or 62 back around New Year's.