Ron Baker, NBA Prospect

[pie n eye]

Just my opinion, sure. But, IF he dreams of making it in the NBA, staying another year makes it more difficult. He's not going to improve his value, and hinders development compared to leaving sooner. Sure, he can make it as a non-first rounder (as I have mentioned, I believe he will.) I just don't think it would be smart for him to stay IF he wants to last more than a few years. (Hey, I've been wrong before! I did NOT think Doug McD. was a first round pick AT ALL!)

I don't understand how Baker staying one more year correlates with his longevity as a potential NBA player.

Tim Duncan, Damian Lillard, David West, David Lee, Jeremy Lin, Kyle Korver, Kirk Heinrich, Nick Collison, Draymond Green, Roy Hibbert (I could keep going but you get the point).

Some of those guys are hall of famers, some are all stars, some are role players but they all went to school for four years and most have been in the league a long time and made a lot of money.

There are a number of things that can shorten an NBA career but I don't think playing four years of college ball is on that list. It just doesn't make sense to me.

[Dan]

The only time 4 years might hurt a guy is if a team is comparing him to other options that have 2-3 more years to develop and they think the other guy has more upside. A lot of scouts think 22-23 year old guys are already playing at their peak, something that hurt Cle last year. I see Ron having a similar evaluation - they think he's good enough to play, but not good enough to have a high upside (i.e., spend a valuable draft spot on). I think it's pretty much a consensus that he's borderline 1st, easily 2nd round draft pick, whether it's this year or next.

[OregonShocker]

I don't understand how Baker staying one more year correlates with his longevity as a potential NBA player.

Tim Duncan, Damian Lillard, David West, David Lee, Jeremy Lin, Kyle Korver, Kirk Heinrich, Nick Collison, Draymond Green, Roy Hibbert (I could keep going but you get the point).

Some of those guys are hall of famers, some are all stars, some are role players but they all went to school for four years and most have been in the league a long time and made a lot of money.

There are a number of things that can shorten an NBA career but I don't think playing four years of college ball is on that list. It just doesn't make sense to me.

I think those players you name were all first round picks (although you're stretching my memory on some.) Playing your way into a meaningful role as a second round pick is pretty hard; the sooner you start, the better.

[OregonShocker]

Here, this might help explain the situation. http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

[pinstripers]

I think those players you name were all first round picks (although you're stretching my memory on some.) Playing your way into a meaningful role as a second round pick is pretty hard; the sooner you start, the better.

yeah, not a comparison at all

[pie n eye]

yeah, not a comparison at all

Yeah, it is a comparison actually. The original point (as I understand it) was that staying four years in college would reduce the potential longevity of an NBA career. All the guys I listed went to school four years and the older ones on the list have been in the league a long time.

I could just as easily put together a list of guys who didn't play four years in college who couldn't make it in the NBA.

[pinstripers]

yeah, not a comparison at all

this

[OregonShocker]

The original point (as I understand it) was that staying four years in college would reduce the potential longevity of an NBA career. All the guys I listed went to school four years and the older ones on the list have been in the league a long time.

Perhaps I wasn't clear. That wasn't actually my point. My point was (supposed to be) staying an extra year wouldn't necessarily help RB have a long career, unless he thought it would boost him from 2nd to 1st round pick. If it won't, then he may as well get started sooner rather than later, as MOST 2nd round picks don't last long. It was more about when he starts his NBA career than about how long he stayed in college.

[pie n eye]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. That wasn't actually my point. My point was (supposed to be) staying an extra year wouldn't necessarily help RB have a long career, unless he thought it would boost him from 2nd to 1st round pick. If it won't, then he may as well get started sooner rather than later, as MOST 2nd round picks don't last long. It was more about when he starts his NBA career than about how long he stayed in college.

Ok, fair enough. That's not the way I understood your original posts but I appreciate you taking the time to explain using multiple, complete sentences like a normal human being.

However, I'm sorry but I still don't understand how leaving sooner than later is going to improve his longevity. If he leaves this year and gets drafted in the second round, based on what you're saying, he's just as likely not to make it in that case as he is if he stuck around for his senior year and got drafted in the second round.

The way I see it is you're either good enough to play in the NBA or you're not. Obviously guys who are drafted high have a greater chance at success, not because they were drafted in a certain position, but because they are usually very good basketball players. Or because someone thinks they have the potential to become very good. There are examples of guys picked #1 who never panned out just like there are examples of guys picked in the second round who ended up all stars.

Will Ron Baker come back next year? I have no idea. Should he come back next year? I don't know that either. I just don't think that decision has a ton of bearing on the success or longevity of his NBA career.

[OregonShocker]

Ok, fair enough. That's not the way I understood your original posts but I appreciate you taking the time to explain using multiple, complete sentences like a normal human being.

However, I'm sorry but I still don't understand how leaving sooner than later is going to improve his longevity. If he leaves this year and gets drafted in the second round, based on what you're saying, he's just as likely not to make it in that case as he is if he stuck around for his senior year and got drafted in the second round.

The way I see it is you're either good enough to play in the NBA or you're not. Obviously guys who are drafted high have a greater chance at success, not because they were drafted in a certain position, but because they are usually very good basketball players. Or because someone thinks they have the potential to become very good. There are examples of guys picked #1 who never panned out just like there are examples of guys picked in the second round who ended up all stars.

Will Ron Baker come back next year? I have no idea. Should he come back next year? I don't know that either. I just don't think that decision has a ton of bearing on the success or longevity of his NBA career.

I think I understand your point and I don't necessarily think it is "wrong"; but, I don't agree either. :smile-new: I believe MOST 2nd round picks are basically even considered because 1) the drafting team hopes but isn't sure there is future potential or 2) they aren't sure of the level of ability from what they've been able to watch. So, IF RB is a 2nd rounder, he needs to show his potential ability to participate at a different MUCH HIGHER level. Like any transition to a new level, there is a learning curve. I think he'd be better suited to start that curve SOONER rather than LATER. I THINK your point is that one year probably isn't that big a deal; you may be right. I just believe that the sooner you start on that transition, the younger you'll be when it's completed. I believe that's why, given a choice, teams would rather have a younger pick than an older. But I agree it's not a universal mandate.

[Kung Wu]

yeah, not a comparison at all

this

Posturbater.

[Dan]

Ron's probably still a tweener draft pick this year or next. It really comes down to whether he wants to move on or take the chance of possibly getting hurt next year, which would affect his options.

[forevershockerfan]

When Ron Baker first arrived here one summer, I got on here saying that I thought he would be a better player in our System than Conner Frankamp. Ron paid his own way for a year and later became even a better player than my hype even projected. Thus, I want Mr. Baker to do what is best for him. If he stays, I just can't imagine how positive his results will be for him and our Shocks. If he goes, I will be grateful for him and his great stay here and wish him the very best in his bright future in life and basketball. Right now, I think Ron is focused on our team goals for this Season, knowing he later has a tough decision to make. Since the day he got here, he has been a positive shot in the arm for our Program both on and off the Court. I will never forget the Season he was injured for so long. His return was just ideal and helped lots to lead us to the Final 4. More than 1 KU big fan has told me they would love to have both Ron Baker and FVV on their squad. Nope, not gonna do it!!!! They are forever Shocker players that will never be forgotten.

[pie n eye]

I think I understand your point and I don't necessarily think it is "wrong"; but, I don't agree either. :smile-new: I believe MOST 2nd round picks are basically even considered because 1) the drafting team hopes but isn't sure there is future potential or 2) they aren't sure of the level of ability from what they've been able to watch. So, IF RB is a 2nd rounder, he needs to show his potential ability to participate at a different MUCH HIGHER level. Like any transition to a new level, there is a learning curve. I think he'd be better suited to start that curve SOONER rather than LATER. I THINK your point is that one year probably isn't that big a deal; you may be right. I just believe that the sooner you start on that transition, the younger you'll be when it's completed. I believe that's why, given a choice, teams would rather have a younger pick than an older. But I agree it's not a universal mandate.

The good thing about Baker too is that he is coachable and would use that extra year to work his ass off to improve his game.

[1979Shocker]

I think this year he should be trying to improve his ability to create his own shot. He'll need that in the NBA.