Nate Silvers bracket

[kcshocker11]

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dcFt1?u...ege-basketball Put arrow on team or go to table

[Rosewood]

One of the factors I strongly disagree with in his formula is using pre-season rankings. They are completely worthless in my opinion and including them weakens the end result.

[ShockerMas]

So much for that 75% chance OSU had of beating Dayton and 40% chance of going to the Sweet 16...

Sorry if I just trash these stat prediction things all tournament, I just think the formula is crap (especially the preseason rankings that Rosewood brought up)

[Shock Therapy]

One of the factors I strongly disagree with in his formula is using pre-season rankings. They are completely worthless in my opinion and including them weakens the end result.

He's shown that the tournament results match the preseason rankings more than anything else. But from what I've seen, I think that it's more a matter of coincidence than anything. Statisticians love to hang their hat on any correlation that they see, whether it actually means something or not. I also absolutely hate when they use statistics to prognosticate one time events. That's not what statics are for, and they know it. Nate Silver is just an attention whore.

[Perezident]

I think it makes sense to consider preseason rankings, in theory at least. Including preseason rankings is a way of incorporating last season's performance into the metric. So in our case, since we made it to the Final Four last year and returned many of our key players, it makes sense that in the preseason we'd have a favorable ranking.

Oh wait, I was assuming the voters don't spend the majority of their time with their heads buried inside the a55es of the BCS favs, disregard.

[MadaboutWu]

Silver has us as a favorite in every game other than the Sweet 16, including the elite 8 and the national semi-final and final. Where we lose a lot with him compared to other high seeds is the sweet 16 and only having a 60% chance to survive the round of 32.