Tekele Cotton REALLY likes Feb/Mar/Apr

[Rlh04d]

Interesting stats I've just noticed for Tekele:

FG% Prior to February 1st: 41.7%
FG% After February 1st: 52.4%

3PT% Prior to February 1st: 25.5%
3PT% After February 1st: 49.1%

That increase is stunning ... Cotton's numbers since February 1st are simply night and day compared to what came before it. (If I wasn't just arbitrarily picking Feb 1st as an easy date, I'd say his real turnaround was January 22nd against Illinois State.)

If that's all it was, though, it'd be easy to just say he's gotten hot and found his stroke. But his numbers for last year are almost exactly the same:

FG% Prior to February 1st: 40.3%
FG% After February 1st: 48.9%

3PT% Prior to February 1st: 18.5%
3PT% After February 1st: 48.7%

And even in limited action his freshman year, they're almost the same again:

FG% Prior to February 1st: 48.8%
FG% After February 1st: 64.7%

3PT% Prior to February 1st: 33.3%
3PT% After February 1st: 40%

For his career, Cotton has dramatically improved every year at about the late January/early February mark. Overall, he's 41.8% and 25% from three prior to February 1st, 51.9% and 48.5% from three after.

That's not even fair from a tournament scouting perspective.

[ShockerFever]

Guy is on an absolute tear right now and has been a big catalyst late in the season to turning our 10 point victories into 30 point thumpings. For a guy known only as being a lockdown defender, I'm ecstatic to see him relish in some scoring efficiency.

No longer can defenses sag on him. Do it at your own risk. It just opens up another option for this team.

So proud and happy for TC.

[ShockerMas]

The Bradley fans sitting behind me this afternoon were loving Tekele today. Every possession after he hit those 3s in the second half they would be yelling "oh no, there's Cotton spotting up again"

[Speed]

How many wins until Cotton surpasses Williams as all time win ingest Shocker.

[Rlh04d]

How many wins until Cotton surpasses Williams as all time win ingest Shocker.

21, I think. Williams had 111, Cotton has 91, as far as I can tell.

Something tells me he'll get there.

[Blackmag]

I've loved Cottons game from day one. The three point shot is just anotheir element of his game that he has had over the last few years. Also he has improved his ability to create shots off the dribble. It is funny that he is getting hot, just like last year, at the most critical part of the season.

[Shocker Mama]

I don't know if it has already been mentioned (been driving home from STL and haven't caught up on my Shockernet reading), but in today's game, TC was passed the ball in the second half. He very coolly checked to be sure he was behind the three-point line, and drained one. Then he gave that little half smile, and beat it down court on defense. Loved it!

[Shoxfan11]

I will forever wish that Cotton got more playing time against VCU in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Even as a freshman he was still an absolute stud and played very well in that game.

I didn't think it was possible for an undefeated team, but I think they're peaking right now. I love our starting lineup with Coleby from a defensive standpoint, and how we can throw in Carter/Lufile for more offense a little bit into the game. This one and a half week break will only help everybody get healthy. This March/April will be fun.

[Rlh04d]

I didn't think it was possible for an undefeated team, but I think they're peaking right now. I love our starting lineup with Coleby from a defensive standpoint, and how we can throw in Carter/Lufile for more offense a little bit into the game. This one and a half week break will only help everybody get healthy. This March/April will be fun.

Absolutely. It's crazy looking at this team right now. Flat out, across the board, the team is exploding offensively recently:

Baker's shooting 48.9% and 41% from 3 since February 11th (even after his 0-6 game today ... 46.5% until then). Season averages: 45.6% and 38.2%.

FVV is shooting 55.8% and 50% from three since February 1st. Season averages: 48.8% and 43%.

Early is shooting 50.7% and 44.3% from three since January 22nd. Season averages: 47.2% and 36.5%.

Carter is shooting 58.5% since February 1st. Season average: 53.2%.

Oh, and Wessel is shooting 54.5% and 42.9% from three since February 1st. He was 29% and 0% from three before that.

Only Wiggins and Lufile seem to be holding steady over that period, with Wiggins at 36.4% and 23.1% from three since February 1st. Pretty much right in line with his season numbers. And only Coleby's been in decline, down to 37% since January 28th, well below what he should be capable of and his season numbers.

(And those season average numbers are all obviously buoyed by their larger numbers for the last month +. They'd all be smaller if I only calculated out the numbers before that point, but I'm too lazy.)

I like that the fearsome foursome are shooting 41.8% from three since February 1st. This is the point we're going to need them shooting like that. I'd suspect we'll see zone more this go around.

[Bluzrover]

I don't know if it has already been mentioned (been driving home from STL and haven't caught up on my Shockernet reading), but in today's game, TC was passed the ball in the second half. He very coolly checked to be sure he was behind the three-point line, and drained one. Then he gave that little half smile, and beat it down court on defense. Loved it!

Don't which one of the announcers made the comment yesterday during the game, but that particular shot was pointed out, and the fact that Tekele looked to down to check his feet were outside the 3-point line. My brother was bragging on Cotton from day one and it wasn't until last year that I finally got the chance to see what all the hubbub was about. Now I know. And I likey.

[jocoshock]

@ShotAnalytics: Examining Wichita St. offense w/ shotcharts http://shotanalytics.com/2014/03/10/wichita-state/ @GoShockers: @PaulS:uellentrop @Wheatshocker:s http://twitter.com/ShotAnalytics/sta...515904/photo/1

[1972Shocker]

[CBB_Fan]

According to my calculations, our starters (Darius at center) have outscored opponents by .523 points per possession since February 1st, scoring 1.48 on offense and giving up .953 on defense. At our tempo, that's 35 points a game. Our total numbers are worse because Coleby, Wiggins, and Wessel have all been significantly worse and received a lot of minutes (and because our 6th most common lineup has been Simons/Wessel/Green/Bush/Coleby).

For reference, no champion in the last 10 years has averaged a margin greater than .311 (Kentucky, 2012) after adjusting for SoS. I'm collecting data to determine how dominant that is in historical terms, but needless to say this team hasn't just been playing "good." We've been so dominant with our primary scorers in the game that we've been able to sit them for a large portion of the game and STILL come out with large double digit victories. If we are able to play them for larger portions of the game without a significant drop in effectiveness we'll be in a great place for the NCAA tournament.

EDIT: Looking back, the highest per possession margins, adjusted for SoS I've found have been:

Duke 1998-1999: 0.433 (34.4 per game)
Kentucky 1996-1997: 0.363 (32.1 per game)
Indiana 1991-1992: 0.382 (30.0 per game)
UNLV 1990-1991: .356 (31.1 per game)

Generally champions have been in the 0.25 to 0.35 range, with most champions below 0.300. Even with some adjustment downward for our SoS, we still are playing at a very high level even from a historical standpoint.