Tweet
Dear Mr. College Basketball Expert Analyst,
You say WSU has a weak schedule. You say there are 10-12 other teams in the country that would be undefeated if they had played the same bunch of cupcakes. You say WSU is good, but you can list 7-8 teams that should be in the running for a #1 seed, and WSU isn’t one of them. At least, that is what YOU say.
I say you don’t have a clue what you are talking about. I say you are overconfident in matters that you just don’t understand. I say that although you present yourself as an expert rooted in facts, truth, and deep analysis, the real truth is that there are pure, undeniable, statistical FACTS that prove you are wrong.
Let’s break down WSU’s schedule into groups. I hope the math doesn’t get too difficult for you. Some people just aren’t good at math, or for that matter, putting on their shorts correctly. Nobody’s perfect.
The cupcakes (201+)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 9
Interesting Fact: Louisville (9), Virginia (7), Syracuse (5), Michigan State (5), and Florida (5) have all played a few cupcakes too.
Historical Results: Cupcakes beat elite teams (those teams fighting for a #1 seed) somewhere between 1-2% of the time.
Our Analysis: Let’s use the rare end of the spectrum and assume 1%. I mean seriously, when did something like this last actually happen? (cough, cough, KU, just last year, #237 TCU, still got a #1 seed, cough, cough)
The mediocres (101-200)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 14
Interesting Fact: Just this year we have seen Boston College over Syracuse, Northwestern over Wisconsin, and Notre Dame over Duke.
Historical Results: These “mediocres” manage an upset over the elite teams about 5-10% of the time depending on home, neutral, or road setting.
Our Analysis: Let’s lean toward giving the elite teams the benefit of the doubt and go with just 5%.
The NITers (51-100)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 6
Interesting Fact: This year, Wisconsin, Creighton, Michigan State, and Virginia each have multiple losses to teams in this range. It happens. Often. Just not to WSU so far despite 6 chances.
Historical Results: Elite teams lose to these guys somewhere between 15-25% of the time, depending on home, neutral, or road setting.
Our Analysis: Let’s once again lean toward giving the elite teams the benefit of the doubt and go with just 15%.
Other Games
Neutral BYU: BYU is your typical 10-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. On a neutral court, they win at least 1 in 5 times, so let’s use 20%. Fair enough?
@ St. Louis: St. Louis is 24-2, undefeated in the A10, and AP #10 this last week. I’m not sure there is a team in the country that would be more than a 1-2 point favorite playing @St. Louis. Still, let’s stay conservative and say a St. Louis upset of an elite team is only a 1 in 3 event. (35%)
So what does all that mean? How does any of that prove anything? Here is a simple, logical, reasonable analysis that you might want to reference the next time your job of “expert college basketball analyst” requires you to, well, sound like an expert.
9 games with a 99% chance to win each
+
14 games with a 95% chance to win each
+
6 games with a 85% chance to win each
+
1 game with a 80% chance to win
+
1 game with a 65% chance to win
=
8.7% chance of going undefeated
8.7%... and that is assuming the best case numbers in each scenario. Start changing 99% to 98% or 85% to 80% and that 8.7 number drops even further. The accomplishment of the Shockers this year is not in any single game, but it is in the sum of their parts. The generic, historical elite team of recent years that I used for this comparison would have less than a 10% chance of going undefeated vs the Shockers’ schedule. They have beaten the odds to do what they have done, and saying any single team would definitively be undefeated if they played who WSU has played is just not in agreement with the numbers. Saying that you can list a handful of teams who would all have likely gone undefeated? You are out of your mind. Even the Shockers could replay their schedule and the odds would be heavily against them repeating it undefeated. They have accomplished something special here.
Sincerely,
John Doe, not an expert college basketball analyst
You say WSU has a weak schedule. You say there are 10-12 other teams in the country that would be undefeated if they had played the same bunch of cupcakes. You say WSU is good, but you can list 7-8 teams that should be in the running for a #1 seed, and WSU isn’t one of them. At least, that is what YOU say.
I say you don’t have a clue what you are talking about. I say you are overconfident in matters that you just don’t understand. I say that although you present yourself as an expert rooted in facts, truth, and deep analysis, the real truth is that there are pure, undeniable, statistical FACTS that prove you are wrong.
Let’s break down WSU’s schedule into groups. I hope the math doesn’t get too difficult for you. Some people just aren’t good at math, or for that matter, putting on their shorts correctly. Nobody’s perfect.
The cupcakes (201+)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 9
Interesting Fact: Louisville (9), Virginia (7), Syracuse (5), Michigan State (5), and Florida (5) have all played a few cupcakes too.
Historical Results: Cupcakes beat elite teams (those teams fighting for a #1 seed) somewhere between 1-2% of the time.
Our Analysis: Let’s use the rare end of the spectrum and assume 1%. I mean seriously, when did something like this last actually happen? (cough, cough, KU, just last year, #237 TCU, still got a #1 seed, cough, cough)
The mediocres (101-200)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 14
Interesting Fact: Just this year we have seen Boston College over Syracuse, Northwestern over Wisconsin, and Notre Dame over Duke.
Historical Results: These “mediocres” manage an upset over the elite teams about 5-10% of the time depending on home, neutral, or road setting.
Our Analysis: Let’s lean toward giving the elite teams the benefit of the doubt and go with just 5%.
The NITers (51-100)
Games on WSU’s regular season schedule: 6
Interesting Fact: This year, Wisconsin, Creighton, Michigan State, and Virginia each have multiple losses to teams in this range. It happens. Often. Just not to WSU so far despite 6 chances.
Historical Results: Elite teams lose to these guys somewhere between 15-25% of the time, depending on home, neutral, or road setting.
Our Analysis: Let’s once again lean toward giving the elite teams the benefit of the doubt and go with just 15%.
Other Games
Neutral BYU: BYU is your typical 10-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. On a neutral court, they win at least 1 in 5 times, so let’s use 20%. Fair enough?
@ St. Louis: St. Louis is 24-2, undefeated in the A10, and AP #10 this last week. I’m not sure there is a team in the country that would be more than a 1-2 point favorite playing @St. Louis. Still, let’s stay conservative and say a St. Louis upset of an elite team is only a 1 in 3 event. (35%)
So what does all that mean? How does any of that prove anything? Here is a simple, logical, reasonable analysis that you might want to reference the next time your job of “expert college basketball analyst” requires you to, well, sound like an expert.
9 games with a 99% chance to win each
+
14 games with a 95% chance to win each
+
6 games with a 85% chance to win each
+
1 game with a 80% chance to win
+
1 game with a 65% chance to win
=
8.7% chance of going undefeated
8.7%... and that is assuming the best case numbers in each scenario. Start changing 99% to 98% or 85% to 80% and that 8.7 number drops even further. The accomplishment of the Shockers this year is not in any single game, but it is in the sum of their parts. The generic, historical elite team of recent years that I used for this comparison would have less than a 10% chance of going undefeated vs the Shockers’ schedule. They have beaten the odds to do what they have done, and saying any single team would definitively be undefeated if they played who WSU has played is just not in agreement with the numbers. Saying that you can list a handful of teams who would all have likely gone undefeated? You are out of your mind. Even the Shockers could replay their schedule and the odds would be heavily against them repeating it undefeated. They have accomplished something special here.
Sincerely,
John Doe, not an expert college basketball analyst
Comment