March odds

[asiseeit]

All in all Vegas odds gives the most accurate unbiased lines and odds.
Like it or not, despite wins and losses and rankings here are their latest
odds for the tournament ( before KU's loss last night ). Kansas, Florida,
and Syracuse are at 6-1, Arizona 15-2, Michigan State 8-1, Kentucky 9-1,
Duke 10-1 and WSU is 12-1. According to Vegas these are CLEARLY the
best teams in the country. The next was SDSU at 22-1 a pretty big drop.
Not MY analysis because I AM biased but I think these odds are revealing.
I think you can throw a blanket over the top eight.

[MadaboutWu]

Vegas knows its stuff but part of its stuff is what people are going to bet on. Setting lines for games they want to balance the action so their line does not exactly reflect the projected point differential but accounts for gamblers' biases. Probably this kind of prop bet reflects media perception even more than individual games. That is a good list of top teams. I doubt the "most accurate and unbiased," because that is not what Vegas is seeking to do. Kentucky and Duke stick out as more reflective of the betting brand than their actual relative chances.

An aside is that prop bets are typically some of the worse odds in Vegas. A lot more vig comes out of them than the 5% on individual games.

[Novacat91]

Odds do not necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they are the best team. Odds are set based on how they think the betting population will react (they want equal money on both sides of the bet)

[OTR Shockfan]

hmmm glad I got my bet in at 35 to 1 then

[asiseeit]

Odds do not necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they are the best team. Odds are set based on how they think the betting population will react (they want equal money on both sides of the bet)

we are not talking about a two sided coin here

[rrshock]

hmmm glad I got my bet in at 35 to 1 then

It was still at those odds last week. Did open the season 150 to 1 though.

[AndShock]

I saw 75 to 1 in August when I was in Vegas, but this was only at one casino and I didn't even place a bet. I'm really regretting my decision to not shop some lines and throw some money down but when I'm in Vegas I tend to get distracted and my priorities get thrown out of whack.

[Shockeriffic]

Vegas knows its stuff but part of its stuff is what people are going to bet on. Setting lines for games they want to balance the action so their line does not exactly reflect the projected point differential but accounts for gamblers' biases. Probably this kind of prop bet reflects media perception even more than individual games. That is a good list of top teams. I doubt the "most accurate and unbiased," because that is not what Vegas is seeking to do. Kentucky and Duke stick out as more reflective of the betting brand than their actual relative chances.

An aside is that prop bets are typically some of the worse odds in Vegas. A lot more vig comes out of them than the 5% on individual games.

I think these kinds of prop bets depend less on the public than a over/under on a single game. If for some reason everyone started betting heavily on a bubble team like Colorado to win the title, the Vegas reaction would be "FREE MONEY!" and the line wouldn't move at all. The vig is much larger on them because Vegas recognizes that they don't have that great of an idea on who will win the title in early February.

[asiseeit]

This seems to be going in a different direction than I intended. The "revealing" part
I suggested was that we are a legitimate top eight team in the eyes of the experts,
whereas, all over the country there are many that question our legitimacy. In the eyes
of Vegas eight teams stand out relative to all of the others and we are one of them.

[Play Angry]

I think pretty much every sane national commentator places us at least in the top 8, and usually in the top 5. ******* is the only holdout.

[Carolina_Shock]

A lot better than last years odds! I bet us to win it all and hedged out more than a few hundo in the final 4

[Carolina_Shock]

See attachment....