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" ... a soft 1 seed."
Some snippets from around the basketball world:
Kansas:
Duke:
Kentucky:
These comments have just started now, but they will be everywhere come tournament time. Experts will try to be hip and predict us to lose each and every game in the tournament, opposing fans will say they want to play against us. The question is: Are they right?
It should come as NO surprise that those teams only really look at the name on the front of the jerseys. They don't say it like that, but that is what it comes down to. They want to play a high ranked team like Wichita State that doesn't come from a BCS conference, instead of another BCS program or even a (heaven forbid) another blue blood. Our schedule is so weak that we'll be facing our toughest test of the year in the Round of 32, especially if it is a real conference team like Stanford or North Carolina.
I've posted this before, but I'll post it again with some changes. I'd like to go back and look at the history of similar teams. First up is the closest comparison possible, 1979 Indiana State. I don't have SoS numbers for Indiana State, but their next season had an SoS of 107, roughly similar to ours. They had a transcendent player that we can't match, but they didn't start off the year ranked #1. In fact, they didn't start off the year ranked at all. They first appeared in the 3rd week poll, and kept moving up the ranks as other teams lost, finally reaching #1 in the last five polls.
Indiana State faced #8 Virginia Tech in their first game, a fairly easy matchup. Then they faced #5 seed Oklahoma, Big 8 champions. After that matchup Indiana State played a close game against the #2 seeded Arkansas, which had also started unranked but finished the season ranked 5th in the poll. The next matchup was a Final Four test against #2 DePaul, the #6 team in the final poll, which also came down to the wire. Finally they faced Michigan State in a game that say created the modern era of college basketball.
The next team is Houston in 1983. In '83 Houston had the #49th schedule, and started the year ranked #14 in the polls. After back to back losses they dropped to #19, but won 20 games in a row before the tournament, leading to a #1 rank in the polls. That team had to go through #8 Maryland, #4 Memphis, #3 Villanova, #1 Louisville (ranked 2nd), and finally lost to North Carolina State in the championship game.
In 1987 a midmajor team again was seeded #1. This time it was UNLV out of the PCAA. They had the #44 SoS, and started the year ranked #5 in the nation. Unlike the two previous teams, the controlled the #1 spot for most of the year, ranked the top team in all but four polls. Their matchups in the tournament went #16 Idaho State, #9 Kansas State, #12 Wyoming, #2 Iowa (ranked #6), and finally lost to #1 Indiana (ranked #3) in the Final Four.
Temple interrupted UNLV's streak of great teams with a #1 seed in 1988. They started the year ranked #12 in the nation, and had an SoS that ranked #89. They won 14 in a row, lost a game (to UNLV coincidentally), and then won another 15 straight in route to the #1 ranking. They beat #16 Lehigh, #8 Georgetown, and #13 Richmond before falling to #2 Duke (ranked #5) in the Elite Eight.
As a mentioned earlier, UNLV continued to roll and had back to back dominant years in 1990 and 1991. They were the preseason #1 pick in 1990 and had the #17 SoS, but several early losses (to Kansas and later to Oklahoma) knocked them back to the #14 rank. They went 26-3 the rest of the year and finished the year ranked #2. They played #16 Arkansas-Little Rock, #8 Ohio State, #12 Ball State, #11 Loyola Marymount, and #4 Georgia Tech before playing Duke in the title game. Despite the efforts of Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley, UNLV throttled Duke by 30 points, the largest blowout in an NCAA championship.
Next year UNLV started the year with another #1 ranking, but unlike last year they held onto that ranking for the entire regular season. They only played the #72 SoS, but they weren't just beating teams, they were slaughtering them (beating teams like Michigan State and Florida State by 20 and 30 points). They marched through the tournament as well, playing #16 Montana, #8 Georgetown, #4 Utah, #3 Seton Hall, and finally matched up against their old punching bags #2 Duke (ranked #6). Some say UNLV was arrogant, some say Duke got a little lucky, but either way the Blue Devils managed to win 79-77.
No midmajor teams managed to get a #1 seed until 1996, when a Marcus Camby led UMass team (led of course by Calipari) accomplished the feat. They had the #25 SoS in the nation, and started the year out ranked #7. They it didn't take long for them to reach the #1 ranking, with 26 straight wins. Despite losing a game and dropping back to #2, they finished the year as the #1 team in the polls. In the tournament they faced #16 Central Florida, #9 Stanford, #12 Arkansas, #2 Georgetown (ranked 4th), and finally lost to #1 Kentucky (ranked second) in the Final Four.
Nearly 10 years later Saint Joseph's finally brought a #1 seed back to the midmajor ranks. They had the #77 SoS, and started the year ranked #17 in the country. They had to fight the entire year to get respect in the polls, finally reaching the #1 spot on the second to last week after 27 straight wins. Unfortunately they then lost by 20 points in their tournament, and fell in the final polls to #5. After beating #16 Liberty, #8 Texas Tech, and #4 Wake Forest they finally lost 64-62 to #2 Oklahoma State, who was ranked one spot higher than them at #4 in the final poll.
Two years later and Calipari had again coached a midmajor team to the #1 ranking. This time it was Memphis, after the Camby scandal at UMass. Memphis had the #86 SoS, and started the year ranked #12. Unlike the other teams I've mentioned, they got a #1 ranking despite never reaching the top spot at the polls, finishing #4. They played #4 Oral Roberts, #9 Bucknell, #13 Bradley, and finally lost to #2 UCLA (ranked #7).
Another two years and Calipari again had a star player in Derrick Rose. This year his SoS was #65 in the nation. The team started out #3 in the polls, briefly moved up to #1, and finally settled the year at #2 behind North Carolina after dropping a game (having won 26 in a row before the loss). They then beat #16 Texas-Arlington, #8 Mississippi State, #5 Michigan State, #2 Texas (ranked #7), #1 UCLA (ranked #3). Of course they ended up losing in OT to KU in the national title game.
Finally we have Gonzaga. They played the #25 SoS and started the year #21 in the polls, but reaching #1 in the last two polls. Of course we know how their tournament ended, with a loss to the #9 seeded Wichita State Shockers in the Round of 32.
So one loss in the Round of 32, three Elite Eights, two Final Fours, five losses in the championship game, and one championship. The average SoS was #57, and the average preaseason ranking was #12. Most finished the year #1 overall after impressive winning streaks.
The moral of the story is that this talk of a "soft #1 seed" is recent history. Go back and you'll find a lot of teams that look a lot like us: "bad" schedule, big winning streaks, low preseason ranking, and maybe worst of all a mid-major conference affiliation. Those teams historically haven't folded early on the tournament, and have never lost in the Sweet 16 (where we are projected to play Kentucky or Duke according Lunardi's latest bracket). Outside of Gonzaga every one of them reached the Elite 8, and half made the championship game.
TL;DR: Opposing fans say they want to play us; history says they shouldn't.
Kansas:
I'm going to get destroyed on here for this but i'd love to be the two seed in wsu's bracket. Let them defend their seeding, have our guys play angry with a chip on their shoulder from a perceived lack of respect.
Wichita state is a great team, but they are no 1 seed.
-Wichita State would be a soft 1 seed.
It should come as NO surprise that those teams only really look at the name on the front of the jerseys. They don't say it like that, but that is what it comes down to. They want to play a high ranked team like Wichita State that doesn't come from a BCS conference, instead of another BCS program or even a (heaven forbid) another blue blood. Our schedule is so weak that we'll be facing our toughest test of the year in the Round of 32, especially if it is a real conference team like Stanford or North Carolina.
I've posted this before, but I'll post it again with some changes. I'd like to go back and look at the history of similar teams. First up is the closest comparison possible, 1979 Indiana State. I don't have SoS numbers for Indiana State, but their next season had an SoS of 107, roughly similar to ours. They had a transcendent player that we can't match, but they didn't start off the year ranked #1. In fact, they didn't start off the year ranked at all. They first appeared in the 3rd week poll, and kept moving up the ranks as other teams lost, finally reaching #1 in the last five polls.
Indiana State faced #8 Virginia Tech in their first game, a fairly easy matchup. Then they faced #5 seed Oklahoma, Big 8 champions. After that matchup Indiana State played a close game against the #2 seeded Arkansas, which had also started unranked but finished the season ranked 5th in the poll. The next matchup was a Final Four test against #2 DePaul, the #6 team in the final poll, which also came down to the wire. Finally they faced Michigan State in a game that say created the modern era of college basketball.
The next team is Houston in 1983. In '83 Houston had the #49th schedule, and started the year ranked #14 in the polls. After back to back losses they dropped to #19, but won 20 games in a row before the tournament, leading to a #1 rank in the polls. That team had to go through #8 Maryland, #4 Memphis, #3 Villanova, #1 Louisville (ranked 2nd), and finally lost to North Carolina State in the championship game.
In 1987 a midmajor team again was seeded #1. This time it was UNLV out of the PCAA. They had the #44 SoS, and started the year ranked #5 in the nation. Unlike the two previous teams, the controlled the #1 spot for most of the year, ranked the top team in all but four polls. Their matchups in the tournament went #16 Idaho State, #9 Kansas State, #12 Wyoming, #2 Iowa (ranked #6), and finally lost to #1 Indiana (ranked #3) in the Final Four.
Temple interrupted UNLV's streak of great teams with a #1 seed in 1988. They started the year ranked #12 in the nation, and had an SoS that ranked #89. They won 14 in a row, lost a game (to UNLV coincidentally), and then won another 15 straight in route to the #1 ranking. They beat #16 Lehigh, #8 Georgetown, and #13 Richmond before falling to #2 Duke (ranked #5) in the Elite Eight.
As a mentioned earlier, UNLV continued to roll and had back to back dominant years in 1990 and 1991. They were the preseason #1 pick in 1990 and had the #17 SoS, but several early losses (to Kansas and later to Oklahoma) knocked them back to the #14 rank. They went 26-3 the rest of the year and finished the year ranked #2. They played #16 Arkansas-Little Rock, #8 Ohio State, #12 Ball State, #11 Loyola Marymount, and #4 Georgia Tech before playing Duke in the title game. Despite the efforts of Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley, UNLV throttled Duke by 30 points, the largest blowout in an NCAA championship.
Next year UNLV started the year with another #1 ranking, but unlike last year they held onto that ranking for the entire regular season. They only played the #72 SoS, but they weren't just beating teams, they were slaughtering them (beating teams like Michigan State and Florida State by 20 and 30 points). They marched through the tournament as well, playing #16 Montana, #8 Georgetown, #4 Utah, #3 Seton Hall, and finally matched up against their old punching bags #2 Duke (ranked #6). Some say UNLV was arrogant, some say Duke got a little lucky, but either way the Blue Devils managed to win 79-77.
No midmajor teams managed to get a #1 seed until 1996, when a Marcus Camby led UMass team (led of course by Calipari) accomplished the feat. They had the #25 SoS in the nation, and started the year out ranked #7. They it didn't take long for them to reach the #1 ranking, with 26 straight wins. Despite losing a game and dropping back to #2, they finished the year as the #1 team in the polls. In the tournament they faced #16 Central Florida, #9 Stanford, #12 Arkansas, #2 Georgetown (ranked 4th), and finally lost to #1 Kentucky (ranked second) in the Final Four.
Nearly 10 years later Saint Joseph's finally brought a #1 seed back to the midmajor ranks. They had the #77 SoS, and started the year ranked #17 in the country. They had to fight the entire year to get respect in the polls, finally reaching the #1 spot on the second to last week after 27 straight wins. Unfortunately they then lost by 20 points in their tournament, and fell in the final polls to #5. After beating #16 Liberty, #8 Texas Tech, and #4 Wake Forest they finally lost 64-62 to #2 Oklahoma State, who was ranked one spot higher than them at #4 in the final poll.
Two years later and Calipari had again coached a midmajor team to the #1 ranking. This time it was Memphis, after the Camby scandal at UMass. Memphis had the #86 SoS, and started the year ranked #12. Unlike the other teams I've mentioned, they got a #1 ranking despite never reaching the top spot at the polls, finishing #4. They played #4 Oral Roberts, #9 Bucknell, #13 Bradley, and finally lost to #2 UCLA (ranked #7).
Another two years and Calipari again had a star player in Derrick Rose. This year his SoS was #65 in the nation. The team started out #3 in the polls, briefly moved up to #1, and finally settled the year at #2 behind North Carolina after dropping a game (having won 26 in a row before the loss). They then beat #16 Texas-Arlington, #8 Mississippi State, #5 Michigan State, #2 Texas (ranked #7), #1 UCLA (ranked #3). Of course they ended up losing in OT to KU in the national title game.
Finally we have Gonzaga. They played the #25 SoS and started the year #21 in the polls, but reaching #1 in the last two polls. Of course we know how their tournament ended, with a loss to the #9 seeded Wichita State Shockers in the Round of 32.
So one loss in the Round of 32, three Elite Eights, two Final Fours, five losses in the championship game, and one championship. The average SoS was #57, and the average preaseason ranking was #12. Most finished the year #1 overall after impressive winning streaks.
The moral of the story is that this talk of a "soft #1 seed" is recent history. Go back and you'll find a lot of teams that look a lot like us: "bad" schedule, big winning streaks, low preseason ranking, and maybe worst of all a mid-major conference affiliation. Those teams historically haven't folded early on the tournament, and have never lost in the Sweet 16 (where we are projected to play Kentucky or Duke according Lunardi's latest bracket). Outside of Gonzaga every one of them reached the Elite 8, and half made the championship game.
TL;DR: Opposing fans say they want to play us; history says they shouldn't.
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