What was Shane Dennis smoking yesterday?

[ShockTalk]

This thread has taken a turn to absurdity.

Just what the heck difference does it make? When we beat the number one overall 1 seed last year, did that make us the #1 team? I dunno. We also lost to Evansville twice and a lowly SIU. I mean, wow, we're arguing about "Who's the Best". Are there 10 teams that would beat us? There are probably a lot of teams that could beat us, just as we could beat them.

The truth is, we'll never know....never. We're not, nor is anyone else, going to play all 10 of those teams. If we win the National Championship does that mean we are indeed "The Best"? For that tournament, yes and that's all. If we go undefeated and lose in the 2nd round, does that mean we're only somewhere between 17-32 best team? For that tournament, yes and that's all.

The important part is that we are one of the best. As HCGM says, "We Belong". We have been a ranked team all season. How many other teams have done that this year? We have an opportunity to get a very high seed and have a better chance for more success, this year and in the future. Isn't that what we really want. To have continued success, good times, and thoroughly enjoy being part of Shocker Nation.

We should all be more grateful of how well we have it right now and enjoy the ride to its fullest. We have a great coach and coaching staff, great upstanding young men to be proud of on and off the court, and the joy of see our school/team every day in the national media.

It is indeed a great day to be a Shocker!!

:wsu_posters: :wsu_posters: :wsu_posters:

[pogo]

This thread has taken a turn to absurdity.

Why would you expect a different result?

[ShockerHoops]

Just what the heck difference does it make? When we beat the number one overall 1 seed last year, did that make us the #1 team? I dunno. We also lost to Evansville twice and a lowly SIU. I mean, wow, we're arguing about "Who's the Best". Are there 10 teams that would beat us? There are probably a lot of teams that could beat us, just as we could beat them.

The truth is, we'll never know....never. We're not, nor is anyone else, going to play all 10 of those teams. If we win the National Championship does that mean we are indeed "The Best"? For that tournament, yes and that's all. If we go undefeated and lose in the 2nd round, does that mean we're only somewhere between 17-32 best team? For that tournament, yes and that's all.

The important part is that we are one of the best. As HCGM says, "We Belong". We have been a ranked team all season. How many other teams have done that this year? We have an opportunity to get a very high seed and have a better chance for more success, this year and in the future. Isn't that what we really want. To have continued success, good times, and thoroughly enjoy being part of Shocker Nation.

We should all be more grateful of how well we have it right now and enjoy the ride to its fullest. We have a great coach and coaching staff, great upstanding young men to be proud of on and off the court, and the joy of see our school/team every day in the national media.

It is indeed a great day to be a Shocker!!
:wsu_posters: :wsu_posters: :wsu_posters:

Agree with this post 100%...I'm definitely enjoying the ride. Let's leave it at that.

[CBB_Fan]

Problem with a MoV system is that they struggle to to probably balance blowouts and differences in team dynamics. Without exception, Marshall has called off the dogs in every blowout game we've had, whereas a team would be better off just keeping the starters in as much as possible and trying to beat bad teams by 50+ to maximize their BPI. Could we do that? Sure. But Marshall prefers to develop a bench and rest starters, leading to only three 20+ point blowouts on the season.

That is why I distrust the BPI: MoV is only relevant when the teams are fairly close in strength, and stops being useful as a predictive tool when teams can name the score. And yet when it fails it rewards teams and pushes them to the top. In other words, the least accurate games (massive blowouts) are given the most predictive strength.

[im4wsu]

When someone tells me that BPI uses margin of victory to help rank teams it reminds me of that time when BigDermott left LittleDermott and the rest of his starters in during a 20 or 30 point blowout...

I cringe a little bit at the thought of letting everyone know that scores matter. Pretty soon, we will have winning teams taking a three at the buzzer even though the game is in hand already because they are on the bubble or they hope for higher seeding.

Don't use a system that encourages that.

Or maybe feigning like the game is over, then take the ball from a celebrating guard dribbling out the last 4 seconds and scoring. Well, that wasn't for seeding purposes, but ...

[Kung Wu]

I should just stop ... but .... Duke?! We can't beat Duke?! We aren't as good as Duke?!

[Rlh04d]

Problem with a MoV system is that they struggle to to probably balance blowouts and differences in team dynamics. Without exception, Marshall has called off the dogs in every blowout game we've had, whereas a team would be better off just keeping the starters in as much as possible and trying to beat bad teams by 50+ to maximize their BPI. Could we do that? Sure. But Marshall prefers to develop a bench and rest starters, leading to only three 20+ point blowouts on the season.

That is why I distrust the BPI: MoV is only relevant when the teams are fairly close in strength, and stops being useful as a predictive tool when teams can name the score. And yet when it fails it rewards teams and pushes them to the top. In other words, the least accurate games (massive blowouts) are given the most predictive strength.

In analyzing college football stats, you can calculate "garbage time stats" and remove those from overall statistics for the games. The FSU site I use often measures the start of "garbage time" as the point where even if the team winning was to fail to score on every remaining possession, and the opposing team scored a touchdown on every possession, plus recovered an on-side kick and scored a touchdown on that possession, they still wouldn't be able to win.

I'd like to see something along the lines of that for margin of victory. MoV is important ... if you can beat a team by 50, that has to be measured differently than by beating a team with a last second jump shot. But it shouldn't be straight MoV to encourage running the score up. I'd rather see the point at which the game is no longer competitive, and have that factored into the stats somehow.

[RoyalShock]

You can't discount a MoV on just that merit. It's been awhile since I examined Pomeroy's system, but what I remember is that MoV factors in, but only to a certain degree and with decreasing significance when the margin gets to be so high. IIRC, you get no more credit for beating a team by 30 than you do 20, but you'll get more for 20 than for 15. Guys like Ken Pomeroy aren't just math nerds. He, at least, understands the game and it's why his system is highly thought of.

I haven't looked into the BPI and have no idea if the principal designer has an in-depth understanding of college basketball or just a high-level math degree from Boston University (or Boston College, don't recall which).

[Shockadelica]

I caught part of his show yesterday and he listed Iowa State as a team with a possible beef for being behind WSU. Said RPI's are similar (true, ISU is 7, WSU is 6). Said ISU has only lost 4 games, all to top 25 RPI opps, including 2 to KU. Let's see just how those 2 teams stack up.

Losses outside top 100: Neither team has any... TIE
Both beat BYU. ISU @ BYU by 2. WSU in KC by 13... TIE
WSU beat Tennessee @ home. ISU beat Baylor @ home... TIE
WSU beat St. Louis on the road. ISU won @ Oklahoma State... TIE
WSU beat Indiana St. @ home. ISU won neutral site vs Boise State... TIE
WSU won @ Indiana St. ISU beat Kansas St at home... TIE

So what is left? WSU has a bunch more games vs teams outside the top 100. Let's discount those wins as "worthless" and see what ISU has done now that we have effectively trimmed off 80% of their résumé as a tie with WSU.

ISU went 3-4 against:
Home Michigan, Home Iowa, Home Oklahoma, Road Oklahoma, Road Texas, Home Kansas, Road Kansas.

If WSU played those same 7 games and went 3-4, we would have a resume tie between WSU and ISU. What do you think is more likely? That WSU would go 2-5 or 4-3? 1-6 or 5-2? Is Shane not convinced WSU could win very often against those "big boys", even if 4 of the 7 games were played at home?

I wonder if Shane Dennis has a different perspective after that C-Note WVU dropped on them tonight. We have to give credit for the night in, night out consistent effort our squad puts in. No turds like the Cyclones and Nova vs the BJ, and KU to a lesser extent at Texas have had.

[ShockerHoops]

I wonder if Shane Dennis has a different perspective after that C-Note WVU dropped on them tonight. We have to give credit for the night in, night out consistent effort our squad puts in. No turds like the Cyclones and Nova vs the BJ, and KU to a lesser extent at Texas have had.

Iowa State just lost to WV 102 - 77. No way they should be ranked higher than the Shockers.

[Speed]

If/when WSU does lose again, I dont see it being by 25 points.

[molly jabali]

Iowa State just lost to WV 102 - 77. No way they should be ranked higher than the Shockers.

Yeah, but in their defense, they had just come off of an exhausting home court win over the powerful Horned Frogs...how can you play two emotional games in a row???:)