How often do good teams lose to bad teams?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

As we all know, WSU’s SOS is a hot topic this year as they push their undefeated streak further and further and everyone tries to analyze just how good they are. With the majority of WSU’s games coming against teams outside the top 100, I took a look at last year’s NCAA seeds to see how they did against the less-than-stellar opponents on their schedules.

Top 12 Seeds vs Opponents Outside Top 100: 691-56 (93%)
Top 12 Seeds vs Opponents Outside Top 150: 444-18 (96%)

Top 4 Seeds vs Opponents Outside Top 100: 216-7 (97%)
Top 4 Seeds vs Opponents Outside Top 150: 125-2 (98%)

Broken down by seed…

vs Opponents Outside Top 100
1 Seeds: 54-1 (98%)
2 Seeds: 51-3 (94%)
3 Seeds: 54-1 (98%)
4 Seeds: 57-2 (97%)
5 Seeds: 52-3 (95%)
6 Seeds: 54-4 (93%)
7 Seeds: 56-4 (93%)
8 Seeds: 63-4 (94%)
9 Seeds: 54-7 (89%)
10 Seeds: 47-5 (90%)
11 Seeds: 90-13 (87%)
12 Seeds: 59-9 (87%)

vs Opponents Outside Top 150
1 Seeds: 35-1 (97%)
2 Seeds: 27-0 (100%)
3 Seeds: 27-0 (100%)
4 Seeds: 36-1 (97%)
5 Seeds: 34-1 (97%)
6 Seeds: 33-1 (97%)
7 Seeds: 34-0 (100%)
8 Seeds: 34-1 (97%)
9 Seeds: 41-3 (93%)
10 Seeds: 28-2 (93%)
11 Seeds: 76-4 (95%)
12 Seeds: 39-4 (91%)

WSU will play somewhere in the range of 20-24 games against teams outside the top 100. If they are looking to be a top 4 seed, then statistically, 1 loss in this range is to be expected. However, going undefeated in these games would be a nice resume booster as they would have exceeded expectations in this area. It would be an especially useful counter point when the argument of “lack of quality wins” inevitably comes up.

Just some interesting numbers I felt like sharing. I think we can all agree that it is wonderful to be discussing such high seed potential.

[Cdizzle]

It would be interesting to know the home/away breakdowns. I suspect that Top 4 seeds (usually from BCS conferences) generally face fewer road games against this level of competition, as there are fewer of them in-conference.

[Play Angry]

It would be interesting to know the home/away breakdowns. I suspect that Top 4 seeds (usually from BCS conferences) generally face fewer road games against this level of competition, as there are fewer of them in-conference.

This was my first thought as well.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I just did a quick check using only the 1 and 2 seeds from last year. They combined for:

70-1 at home
28-3 on the road
7-0 at neutral sites

Currently, WSU is looking at
13 home
8 road
1 neutral

Small sample size, but that equates to last year's 1 and 2 seeds playing 65% of their games at home and WSU playing 59% of theirs at home. Only a slight disadvantage for the Shox.

[Cdizzle]

I just did a quick check using only the 1 and 2 seeds from last year. They combined for:

70-1 at home
28-3 on the road
7-0 at neutral sites

Currently, WSU is looking at
13 home
8 road
1 neutral

Small sample size, but that equates to last year's 1 and 2 seeds playing 65% of their games at home and WSU playing 59% of theirs at home. Only a slight disadvantage for the Shox.

Thanks.

So, by %, WSU has roughly one more road game and one less home game than the combined 1-2 seeds from last year. Not staggering, but not insignificant.

[im4wsu]

Thanks.

So, by %, WSU has roughly one more road game and one less home game than the combined 1-2 seeds from last year. Not staggering, but not insignificant.

That is against teams outside the 100 or 150 (whichever Jamar used) and not the entire schedule.

I would like to see the OOC breakdown.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

For the last stat, I used 1 and 2 seeds against 101+.

I can provide OOC breakdown if you'd like, but why does that matter in this conversation? A bad loss is a bad loss regardless if it is in or out of conference.

[Cdizzle]

That is against teams outside the 100 or 150 (whichever Jamar used) and not the entire schedule.

Correct. That is the number I was looking for though, as it is the most relevant to JH4P's numbers.

[jdmee]

70-1 at home
28-3 on the road
7-0 at neutral sites

That is an average of about 13.6 games against teams 100+ in the RPI for the 8 1 or 2 seeds

with a 31 game schedule season that leaves 17 games vs top 100 teams

Currently, WSU is looking at
13 home
8 road
1 neutral

WSU is projected to have 22 games vs 100+ RPI teams. That leaves only 9 games vs top 100 teams.

How would that compare to last years top seeds?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

FYI, I am including conference tournament games as well since they are part of the resume entering selection sunday.

2013 - Games played vs the top 100
KU - 23
Louisville - 20
Indiana - 20
Gonzaga - 15
Duke - 21

I'm not going to go any further than those 5 due to time restrictions, but that gives you a good idea. For comparison, WSU had 18 last year and will probably have 8-10 this year.

[jdmee]

So, WSU could be their own worst enemy. Last year Gonzaga was the most overrated 1 seed and got bumped in the round of 32. That was with 15 top 100 victories. Will the Selection Committee take that into account when trying to seed a WSU team with only 8-10 top 100 victories?

[shock-it-to-me]

So, WSU could be their own worst enemy. Last year Gonzaga was the most overrated 1 seed and got bumped in the round of 32. That was with 15 top 100 victories. Will the Selection Committee take that into account when trying to seed a WSU team with only 8-10 top 100 victories?

Yes (IMO). And I can't blame them. Not that it's our fault, of course, we just picked a bad year in the valley to have our strongest team in 30 years.

[AndShock]

I just did a quick check using only the 1 and 2 seeds from last year. They combined for:

70-1 at home
28-3 on the road
7-0 at neutral sites

Currently, WSU is looking at
13 home
8 road
1 neutral

Small sample size, but that equates to last year's 1 and 2 seeds playing 65% of their games at home and WSU playing 59% of theirs at home. Only a slight disadvantage for the Shox.

But Wichita State is the best road team since 2010 so it's actually an advantage.

[engrshock]

So, WSU could be their own worst enemy. Last year Gonzaga was the most overrated 1 seed and got bumped in the round of 32. That was with 15 top 100 victories. Will the Selection Committee take that into account when trying to seed a WSU team with only 8-10 top 100 victories?

Wow! Go back to Phog.net. They buy into what you're spouting. Also how would WSU winning out make them their own worst enemy? They are playing teams that are not too chicken to play us.
Gonzaga was a #1 seed that was beat by the team that made it to the final 4. I suppose along with your analysis Ohio State as a 2 seed was overrated along with Kansas St at #4, Wisconsin at #5 and New Mexico at #3. That must be true because that is the only way the WSU could have made to the Final 4. Do you also contend that Georgetown as a #2 seed and Oklahoma St. as a #5 was overrated or is it just those in Wichita States bracket?

[jdmee]

Wow! Go back to Phog.net. They buy into what you're spouting. Also how would WSU winning out make them their own worst enemy? They are playing teams that are not too chicken to play us.
Gonzaga was a #1 seed that was beat by the team that made it to the final 4. I suppose along with your analysis Ohio State as a 2 seed was overrated along with Kansas St at #4, Wisconsin at #5 and New Mexico at #3. That must be true because that is the only way the WSU could have made to the Final 4. Do you also contend that Georgetown as a #2 seed and Oklahoma St. as a #5 was overrated or is it just those in Wichita States bracket?

Take a deep breath and relax.

My point is that by beating Gonzaga last year it gives the selection committee the ammunition to use to drop WSU seed lines. That is how WSU is their own worst enemy. How many of the pundents stated the Gonzaga thing? That the Zags shouldn't have been a #1 based upon the lack of quality wins? If the Zags would have made a deep run then the point would have been moot, however by them dropping out early it "proved" the point. Now that WSU will have less quality wins how will the WSU resume look to those same people?