NCAA Seed Predictions Based On Final Record

[asiseeit]

What this team really needs is to IMPROVE ! We don't, and won't, have a single marquis win all regular season. We need to
see some playing angry out of KC and CL on a regular basis.....neither have that attribute or even White's scrappiness. Thank
goodness Carter has stepped in. Those guys need to get angry and earn some PT. NW STILL needs to play D ! Need to protect
Baker's ankle with limited minutes until its healed......he looks tentative to me.

[Shocker1976]

I don't think New Mexico last year is a good comparison. They finished with a top 50 SOS in both non-conf and overall. WSU will be outside the top 100 in both.

Gonzaga would be a better comparison, although still not great. They finished 32-3 and received a 1 seed, although their non-conf was more like what we hoped WSU's would be this year... much better than what WSU's actually turned out to be. That is why I think WSU can only afford 1 loss if they want to be a 1 seed.

The point I was trying to make by referencing New Mexico's #3 seed in last year's tournament is that given how biased the seeding process is and has been; a #1 seed for the Shockers is not possible this year (regardless of their record). IMO a #3 is the best we can hope for and the Shockers may well receive a #4 even if they finish the season with only 2 or 3 losses.

[kcshocker11]

#1 after we win it all

[Play Angry]

@Jamar Howard 4 President, will you be rebooting your March Madness blog this year?

I always enjoyed reading it but understand it must be a tremendous time suck.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Unfortunately I will not be blogging anymore. I have a 5 month old who makes evening blogging too low of a priority. I do plan on doing a portion of the stuff I did on my blog on here. Probably start my Jamarotology (bracketology) in another week or so.

[asiseeit]

#1 after we win it all

Several things need to happen to go deep in the tournament starting with a healthy Baker. Next, we need KC and CL
to start playing angry, rebound and defend. Love EW's intensity - now stop aiming and leaning into your shot. Like it
when NW attacks the basket but hate it when his man goes right around him. D up ! Keep improving DC !

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The point I was trying to make by referencing New Mexico's #3 seed in last year's tournament is that given how biased the seeding process is and has been; a #1 seed for the Shockers is not possible this year (regardless of their record). IMO a #3 is the best we can hope for and the Shockers may well receive a #4 even if they finish the season with only 2 or 3 losses.

How does New Mexico's seed last year show bias by the selection committee?
How does any team's seeding (New Mexico's or other) in the last decade show that a #3 seed is the best we can hope for?
If you say a 4 seed may correspond to 2 to 3 losses, what do you think undefeated would equal?

I can provide multiple examples of how a #1 seed is very much within reach. Curious how you come up with your conclusions.

[Shockerbasketball21]

When you look at New Mexico's RPI, SOS, and worst loss according to RPI and a few other things I thought they were more deserving of a 1 seed than Kansas. I also tweeted this before the bracket came out last year and got destroyed by the Kansas fans that follow me lol

[KC Shox]

The 2011-2012 Murray State team was a #6 seed despite only losing 1 game in the regular season (if you remember, it was to John Cooper's TN State squad). They also had the All - American Isaiah Cannon on that team. But it was their conference slate that killed their RPI and perception with the Tourney committee. They got a 6 despite beating St. Mary's in the Bracket Buster too. We didn't like the BB, but with Creighton gone now. The BB would actually be a good thing for us at the moment.

If BYU, TN and Bama don't turn things around, we could actually feel what Murray State fans felt a couple of years back.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Let's use New Mexico as an example, only take the year 2010.

30-5
SOS - 99
Non Conf SOS - 108
Pomeroy Rank at Year's End - 50

They ended up with a 3 seed. Don't tell me a 32-2 WSU team with only a slightly worse SOS and better computer numbers (such as Pomeroy) wouldn't also be atleast a 3 seed. An undefeated or 1 loss WSU team would surely be even higher.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

When you look at New Mexico's RPI, SOS, and worst loss according to RPI and a few other things I thought they were more deserving of a 1 seed than Kansas. I also tweeted this before the bracket came out last year and got destroyed by the Kansas fans that follow me lol

Your comparison with KU last year is fair, but KU was the weakest of #1 seeds. Both KU and New Mexico were part of a second tier of teams between 4-10 in my mind, so a 3 seed seemed fair enough to me with minimal room to argue. Maybe both New Mexico and KU should have been 2 seeds. Either way, New Mexico's resume was so different from this year's WSU team that I find making a comparison between the two difficult.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The 2011-2012 Murray State team was a #6 seed despite only losing 1 game in the regular season (if you remember, it was to John Cooper's TN State squad). They also had the All - American Isaiah Cannon on that team. But it was their conference slate that killed their RPI and perception with the Tourney committee. They got a 6 despite beating St. Mary's in the Bracket Buster too. We didn't like the BB, but with Creighton gone now. The BB would actually be a good thing for us at the moment.

If BYU, TN and Bama don't turn things around, we could actually feel what Murray State fans felt a couple of years back.

Although I agree that Murray State was under-seeded in 2012 as a 6 seed despite going 30-1, let's not forget that their SOS was terrible. They only played 6 games against the top 150 all year. They won those 6, but also lost a game to a team outside the top 150. That’s hardly much of a sample size to study. By contrast, even with this year's MVC being less than stellar, WSU is currently looking at around 17 top 150 matchups come selection sunday. I think the committee screwed up analyzing Murray State, but WSU’s SOS this year is soooo much better than Murray State’s was in 2012 that it is hard to make any comparisons between the two.

If you are going to go ahead and make a comparison, I think you have to say at the very least that a 1 loss Murray State team getting a 6 seed would pretty much guarantee a 1 loss WSU team to get a top 3 seed, but like I said before, the SOS is so different that comparison is difficult in this situation.

[ABC]

CBS Podcast that covers the following questions:

• Is Wichita State's seed tied to Alabama, Tennessee and BYU?
• Should Gregg Marshall be rewarded for at least trying to schedule aggressively?

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24392023/eye-on-college-basketball-podcast-kentuckylouisville-fallout-and-more

Listening now..

Matt Norlander, Gary Parrish, and Jeff Borzello.

Starts at the 27 minute mark

It is worth a listen. Parrish was actually fairly good about WSU - except for the ranking thing.

[Shocker1976]

How does New Mexico's seed last year show bias by the selection committee?
How does any team's seeding (New Mexico's or other) in the last decade show that a #3 seed is the best we can hope for?
If you say a 4 seed may correspond to 2 to 3 losses, what do you think undefeated would equal?

I can provide multiple examples of how a #1 seed is very much within reach. Curious how you come up with your conclusions.

As a simple basketball fan I lack your knowledge of all the basketball minutiae that the selection takes into consideration in their selection and seeding of the NCAA Tournament; in response to your questions please consider the following -

1. In assigning New Mexico a #3 seed they conveniently overlooked the fact that New Mexico was due an automatic bid by winning the third most difficult conference in the country with a record of 29-5; while assigning a #1 seed to Kansas with an identical record of 29-5 and winner of an inferior basketball conference. Then they assign a #1 seed to Indiana a team that failed to win their own conference with an inferior record of 27-6; and, then we have Gonzaga with all of the associated baggage of their weak schedule and winning a clearly inferior conference to the MWC. Finally, we have four teams from the big boy conferences with inferior records receiving the four #2 seeds.

2. Given all of the dissatisfaction expressed with Gonzaga receiving a #1 seed last year even though they had a 31-2 record and a history of playing in the tournament for a number of consecutive years, IMO the selection committee will be reluctant to grant a #1 or a #2 seed to the Shockers. IMO the fact that New Mexico received an automatic bid by winning the third most difficult conference with a record of 29-5 and was seeded #3 by the Selection Committee is predictive of the committee's seeding of the Shockers.

3. If the Shockers are undefeated going into the tournament, I think (hope) that the Shockers will receive the fourth #1 seed just as Gonzaga did. But I am pessimistic that even this scenario will unfold as IMO the Selection Committee will be inclined to assign the four #1 seeds to best teams from the Big 10, PAC 12, ACC and Big12/SEC (IMO that is how they play the game).

Just my opinion.

[Shocker1976]

Your comparison with KU last year is fair, but KU was the weakest of #1 seeds. Both KU and New Mexico were part of a second tier of teams between 4-10 in my mind, so a 3 seed seemed fair enough to me with minimal room to argue. Maybe both New Mexico and KU should have been 2 seeds. Either way, New Mexico's resume was so different from this year's WSU team that I find making a comparison between the two difficult.

I think Kansas was the second #1 seed last year behind only Louisville.