Ingredients for Shockers to be Recognized as a Perennial National Powerhouse

[wsushox1]

If I am an athletic director at a middle of the pack BCS team or at a Non-BCS school and am in need of a new Head Basketball coach I hire Bruce Pearl. As fast as I can.

That might draw a lot of ire here, but he is a proven winner. Also a proven liar but hopefully he's learned his lesson.

[another shocker]

wchita state has breached the top 10. team a is in a quandry.

[Aargh]

WSU needs to stay in the top 25 4 out of the next 5 years. In the NCAA's, WSU needs 2 S16's, 1 E8, and no one-and-dones in 5 years.

At that point, WSU would appear to be a national brand.

I suspect the recruiting would continue to be undervalued 2's (Cotton), unknown guys (Baker) high 3's (most of the 2014 class), and some low 4's (FVV). That's simplified, but I think you see where I'm trying to go. I think with Marshall recruiting and coaching, that type of recruiting will result in a consistent top-20 team who thinks they have something to prove against the McD's AA's and "golden boys" who had all the kudos coming out of HS.

I'm afraid Marshall could have as much trouble coaching a 5* guy as Randy Smithson had with Evans. I'll take no stars, lightly recruited Baker over most 4* recruits in his class. He's already ranked higher than those guys by most who evaluate players.

[ShockerFever]

I thought that the AAC would be a good fit for us because of the geographic proximity of some of the schools. Unfortunately I think it is a longshot that we will be invited to join the conference. The conference commissioner is on record saying that it is unlikely a basketball only school will join the conference. The following is from a July 1, 2013 USA Today article:

"When Louisville and Rutgers leave and East Carolina, Tulsa and Tulane join in 2014, the league will have 11 all-sports members. Navy is coming as a football-only member in 2015. Asked whether the American would consider inviting a non-football school to balance things out – a relevant basketball program like VCU or Wichita State, for instance, would help boost the league's profile – Aresco said it remains unlikely."

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...eague/2480437/

Yep, that would make just too much sense.

[ShockerFever]

Thanks for the link to the USA Today article discussing the American Athletic Conference's strategic plans. Eviscerates my hope the WSU AD is in negotiations to move the Shockers to the AAC; I hope and pray the Valley improves or Sexton finds a more competitive basketball conference for the Shockers.

Ha, good luck with that. At this point, the Athletic Department is struggling just to get Final Four DVDs out before Christmas.

[another shocker]

davidson is coming hard sunday for the upset, by the way. shockers better clamp down.. . or: see davidson at north carolina.

[Dave Stalwart]

The issue I have with comparing this coming game to the North Carolina game is that I really think the Shockers are better this year than North Carolina. I see the logic and all, but I'm not sure I'm on board if the premise involves any kind of inferiority complex to North Carolina.

Davidson taking them to the wire and choking does not translate into Davidson beating WSU... Or even Davidson being competitive down the stretch. Sure it might happen, but I think we win this game without an overtime and maybe even without an elevated stress level.

Folks, I know its different territory, but we are better than North Carolina this year. If you aren't so sure about that because its too awesome to swallow, at least consider that we are as of now and enjoy it. I think we will be at the end of the year too.

[AZ Shocker]

Not so, young grasshopper

1 Big 12 Conference 0.5971 88-24 (0.7857) 1 0.5477
2 Big Ten Conference 0.5936 115-29 (0.7986) 2 0.5386
3 Big East Conference 0.5750 84-29 (0.7434) 3 0.5363
4 Pac 12 Conference 0.5745 104-32 (0.7647) 7 0.5242
5 Atlantic Coast Conference 0.5668 121-47 (0.7202) 4 0.5356
6 Southeastern Conference 0.5582 104-45 (0.6980) 5 0.5340
7 Atlantic 10 Conference 0.5476 100-47 (0.6803) 13 0.5132
8 American Athletic Conference 0.5345 81-32 (0.7168) 20 0.4905
9 West Coast Conference 0.5320 71-40 (0.6396) 16 0.5043
10 Mountain West Conference 0.5299 73-45 (0.6186) 10 0.5162
11 Missouri Valley Conference 0.5139 58-47 (0.5524) 17 0.5038
12 Mid American Conference 0.5093 64-48 (0.5714) 19 0.4959
13 Horizon League 0.4999 45-58 (0.4369) 11 0.5160
14 Colonial Athletic Association 0.4923 43-58 (0.4257) 15 0.5058
15 Sun Belt Conference 0.4910 38-57 (0.4000) 14 0.5118
16 Summit League 0.4878 37-51 (0.4205) 18 0.4986
17 Ivy League 0.4863 43-40 (0.5181) 30 0.4657

I am sooooooooooo not qualified to come up with the answer I seek......but with the above mentioned schools and numbers......how would those numbers change if Wichita St. was among one of the above members of one of those conferences??????

In other words....would WSU's presence with the lofty undefeated "out of conference" win/loss record make the AAC, Mountain West or WCC conference rate higher than what it is today???

[shockmonster]

The issue I have with comparing this coming game to the North Carolina game is that I really think the Shockers are better this year than North Carolina. I see the logic and all, but I'm not sure I'm on board if the premise involves any kind of inferiority complex to North Carolina.

Davidson taking them to the wire and choking does not translate into Davidson beating WSU... Or even Davidson being competitive down the stretch. Sure it might happen, but I think we win this game without an overtime and maybe even without an elevated stress level.

Folks, I know its different territory, but we are better than North Carolina this year. If you aren't so sure about that because its too awesome to swallow, at least consider that we are as of now and enjoy it. I think we will be at the end of the year too.

With Brooks back, Davidson will be potentially better than when they played N.Carolina.

[SB Shock]

I am sooooooooooo not qualified to come up with the answer I seek......but with the above mentioned schools and numbers......how would those numbers change if Wichita St. was among one of the above members of one of those conferences??????

In other words....would WSU's presence with the lofty undefeated "out of conference" win/loss record make the AAC, Mountain West or WCC conference rate higher than what it is today???

Capture.JPG

Here is the effect on each conference RPI with the addition of WSU. This is using projected EOY RPI from http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

So the answer is yes they would be rated higher and in general it would help those conferences maybe jump 1 slot. What I found interesting is how bad the MVC is without WSU. The MVC is equal to a Sun Belt/Summit/Horizon (16-18 ranked conference) without WSU this year.

[SB Shock]

Here is a chart showing just the Delta-Change in RPI with the addition or subtraction of WSU.

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[Rosewood]

I looked at my recipe and it is a simple one ingredient dish. All it requires is winning.

[ShockTalk]

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Here is the effect on each conference RPI with the addition of WSU. This is using projected EOY RPI from http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

So the answer is yes they would be rated higher and in general it would help those conferences maybe jump 1 slot. What I found interesting is how bad the MVC is without WSU. The MVC is equal to a Sun Belt/Summit/Horizon (16-18 ranked conference) without WSU this year.

Using the Red columns (WSU w/ MVC), notice how big of drop off there is between the MWC and MVC. There is a second sizable drop off between the A-10 and WCC. The days of the Valley seeing the top 7 again is remote.

Using these same numbers, I subtracted Loyola from the Valley and added back CU. The MVC would still be #11. That's how down the rest of the Valley is.

Question to @SB Shock:. Since you are using EOY projections, I take that projecting WSU in a better conference would add more losses, but not change the EOY factor due to a better conference SoS?

[SB Shock]

Using the Red columns (WSU w/ MVC), notice how big of drop off there is between the MWC and MVC. There is a second sizable drop off between the A-10 and WCC. The days of the Valley seeing the top 7 again is remote.

Using these same numbers, I subtracted Loyola from the Valley and added back CU. The MVC would still be #11. That's how down the rest of the Valley is.

Question to @SB Shock. Since you are using EOY projections, I take that projecting WSU in a better conference would add more losses, but not change the EOY factor due to a better conference SoS?

It doesn't take in account of what an actual change in conference affiliation would do (e.g. replace the MVC conference schedule with X conference schedule, re-project WSU record and RpI). My assumption the better conference schedule would wash the additional losses that the better schedule brought. That probably to simplistic, but for 10 minute exercise it will have to do.

I concur with your CU calculation...that was the most surprising thing that came from this analysis - how sucky the MVC is this year. I'm worried that if WSU doesn't win in STL, it might be a little dicey on selection sunday. We really need at least 1 or 2 more teams in the MVC to seperate themselves from the bottom feeders of the MVC.

[MadaboutWu]

Dicey for getting a protected seed? No one is talking about us being on the bubble until we lose several games. We would still probably be on the edge of the top 25 if we go 5-3 or so through early February (not checking how many games but you get my point).