Some Interesting Stats

[Aargh]

For those concerned that the Shox just aren't playing well:

Points Per game
WSU - 80.0
Opponents - 57.2
Average margin of victory is 22.8

FG%
WSU - 47.3 %
Opponents - 39.0 %
It appears that early practices have been emphasizing D over O.

Our 3-point shooting is really off
WSU - 35.4 %
Opponents - 27.0 %
It appears that early practices have been emphasizing D over O.

Then there's the huge hand-wringing over the Shox inability to rebound down low
WSU Rebounds - 40.6
Opponents Rebounds - 32.0
That's +8.6 boards. Wasn't last year 7.3 or something like that?

I could go on and on with stats from Assists, Turnovers, Steals, Blocks, and every other stat category, and the Shox have ridiculous edges over their opponents in every one.

Maybe the Shox haven't looked like a top-20 team in every half or every 10 minutes of every game this year, but they play 40 minutes. In looking at stats, results, and every other method of evaluation over 40 minutes, the Shox are looking more like a top-10 team than a top-20 team.

[CBB_Fan]

Our weirdest stat: 51.1%. Our opponents FT%. Only one other team in the country has "forced" their opponents into worse FT shooting.

Is our defense so incredibly suffocating that it scares our opponents even from the safety of the line? Has the spirit of Orukpe decided to haunt the foul line of our opponents? Or is it just a combination of normally mediocre FT shooting from our opponents and a few "off days?" It didn't seem to stop William&Mary from shooting 80% against Liberty or Tennessee State from shooting 74% against Lipscomb. Tulsa rained in 30-38 against Missouri State (78.9%).

[Cdizzle]

Simple case of "Ball Don't Lie."

[ShockTalk]

@Aargh:, no one is complaining about or questioning the final results or stats. It is how those results/stats are being accumulated. I'll repeat a recent post I made on another thread:

Interesting stat (IMO) over the last 4 games:

We have had 1 big run in each of those games. Those 4 runs total just over 45 minutes and we have put up 133 points while allowing only 59.

That means we have scored 43% of our points in only 28% of the playing time.

In the remaining 115 minutes, WSU 174, opponents 177.

My concern is whether that type of performance over 40 minutes will work on better competition. We have been consistently playing down to the level of mediocre competition over 70% of the playing time. I don't have the answer on why that is, but it is not because we get out to early big leads and coast. I am not concerned because it may have happened only once or twice over the competition we have faced over those 4 games, but every single time. I think that gives reasonable concern, but in no way says that it will not change starting the very next game.

By the way, I'm not consoled much by the fact that this is happening to some other quality programs as well. I think their fans would have reasonable cause to be concerned as well.

I do have faith in HCGM and our players to get this worked out. It may happen quickly. It may not. We may have to work our way back into the rankings and/or good favor of the tournament committee.

[ShockerFever]

Our weirdest stat: 51.1%. Our opponents FT%. Only one other team in the country has "forced" their opponents into worse FT shooting.

Is our defense so incredibly suffocating that it scares our opponents even from the safety of the line? Has the spirit of Orukpe decided to haunt the foul line of our opponents? Or is it just a combination of normally mediocre FT shooting from our opponents and a few "off days?" It didn't seem to stop William&Mary from shooting 80% against Liberty or Tennessee State from shooting 74% against Lipscomb. Tulsa rained in 30-38 against Missouri State (78.9%).

Ah, the patented FT defense stat again, you know, the stat that kept us alive in the non-con last year. God, I hope you don't go postal after an L again this year.

[shox1989]

Our weirdest stat: 51.1%. Our opponents FT%. Only one other team in the country has "forced" their opponents into worse FT shooting.

Is our defense so incredibly suffocating that it scares our opponents even from the safety of the line? Has the spirit of Orukpe decided to haunt the foul line of our opponents? Or is it just a combination of normally mediocre FT shooting from our opponents and a few "off days?" It didn't seem to stop William&Mary from shooting 80% against Liberty or Tennessee State from shooting 74% against Lipscomb. Tulsa rained in 30-38 against Missouri State (78.9%).

Actually playing good defense can cause your opponents FTs percentage to go down. Good defense can actually wear out your opponents, causing them not to shoot as well as normal. I am not saying that is necessarily the case in these games this year, but it certainly can be a factor.

[Kung Wu]

Our weirdest stat: 51.1%. Our opponents FT%. Only one other team in the country has "forced" their opponents into worse FT shooting.

Is our defense so incredibly suffocating that it scares our opponents even from the safety of the line? Has the spirit of Orukpe decided to haunt the foul line of our opponents? Or is it just a combination of normally mediocre FT shooting from our opponents and a few "off days?" It didn't seem to stop William&Mary from shooting 80% against Liberty or Tennessee State from shooting 74% against Lipscomb. Tulsa rained in 30-38 against Missouri State (78.9%).

One possibility: The teams we play against don't have very many good players and our offense style plus the new rules has them in foul trouble early. Therefore worse shooters than normal are going to the line.

[MadaboutWu]

Another possibility is we have a scout sheet telling who to foul. Also Koch arena has been a tough place to play for these early games.

The factors people are listing are interesting but marginally significant at most (as our mine). It's mostly just a case of statistical variance. When you are collecting so many stats you are going to run luckier or less lucky in certain areas over pretty long stretches.

[Steeleshocker]

@Aargh:, no one is complaining about or questioning the final results or stats. It is how those results/stats are being accumulated. I'll repeat a recent post I made on another thread:



My concern is whether that type of performance over 40 minutes will work on better competition. We have been consistently playing down to the level of mediocre competition over 70% of the playing time. I don't have the answer on why that is, but it is not because we get out to early big leads and coast. I am not concerned because it may have happened only once or twice over the competition we have faced over those 4 games, but every single time. I think that gives reasonable concern, but in no way says that it will not change starting the very next game.

By the way, I'm not consoled much by the fact that this is happening to some other quality programs as well. I think their fans would have reasonable cause to be concerned as well.

I do have faith in HCGM and our players to get this worked out. It may happen quickly. It may not. We may have to work our way back into the rankings and/or good favor of the tournament committee.

I can see your point here, but as 3G is always saying, basketball is a game of runs. You just want your runs to be longer than the other teams. To me, having a run that lasts a full 10 minutes over four games is very impressive. Sometimes all you need is a 2-3 minute run to break a game wide open.

Edit: another interesting stat would be how long and how many points the opposition has attained during their runs. W&M went on that 13-3 run, but I can't remember if any other teams went on very significant runs. If we limit the runs of other teams, it's only a meter of time before the Shocker run takes care of business.

[ShockTalk]

I can see your point here, but as 3G is always saying, basketball is a game of runs. You just want your runs to be longer than the other teams. To me, having a run that lasts a full 10 minutes over four games is very impressive. Sometimes all you need is a 2-3 minute run to break a game wide open.

Edit: another interesting stat would be how long and how many points the opposition has attained during their runs. W&M went on that 13-3 run, but I can't remember if any other teams went on very significant runs. If we limit the runs of other teams, it's only a meter of time before the Shocker run takes care of business.

I'm not going to look it up, but I would hope the runs are not many.

Again, what you say has worked against the RPI level of competition we have played so far. Just might be a little presumptuous to assume it will happen the same way against better teams if we play no better than in that of 72% of the time of the past 4 games.

I'm hoping we won't need to find out.

[CBB_Fan]

Ah, the patented FT defense stat again, you know, the stat that kept us alive in the non-con last year. God, I hope you don't go postal after an L again this year.

Ah ShockerFever's patented "be an asshole" strategy. And not even a very intelligent one at that, since my point last year was on the rate of fouling instead of percentage the opponents were shooting (which obviously we can't directly control, which was the reason I found the stat interesting). In our losses last year before the NCAA our opponents shot 177 FTs to our 116, and it was worse early on (67 to 36 in our first two losses). Given our opponents shot 71.4% against us for the season, that is around 44 points and we lost 6 games by a combined 26 (bigger margins vs ISUb and @Creighton).

This year we've actually started out as one of the better adjusted teams to the new fouling rules, and we are one of the few teams that have actually seen their opponents go to the line less this year than last year. Even if our opponents were shooting as well as the #1 team in the country (Indiana State, 86.4%) we'd still be comfortable because we are giving up less attempts. Instead of winning by 17+ we'd have won by 13, 9, 12, and 11.

[60Shock]

I have noticed that our defense against the free throws has been absolutely terrific.

Our man Cotton must be doing something very sneaky at the line.

[pogo]

Most sports have a certain rhythm to them. Our pressure on the ball as well as our D forces players/teams out of comfort zones and disrupts their rhythm. Standing at the free throw line perhaps the young man is thinking about the pressure being extended by the Shocks and not concentrating on the free throw at hand. Of course I could be full of it like most everyone else but at least this is mine.