Some interesting stats:

[CBB_Fan]

3PT Shooting:

Last year's average: 33.9% (167th in NCAA)

Players with most attempts:
Malcolm Armstead - 177@ 34.5%
Cleanthony Early - 148@ 31.8%
Demetric Williams - 114@ 28.1%
Ron Baker - 84@ 35.7%
Nick Wiggins - 74@ 41.9%
Tekele Cotton - 66@ 36.4%
Fred VanVleet - 49@ 40.8%
Jake White - 27@ 11.1%
Evan Wessel - 24@ 45.8%
Carl Hall - 2@ 0%

Returning players attempts per 36 minutes:

Cleanthony Early - 5.44
Ron Baker - 6.45
Nick Wiggins - 5.78
Tekele Cotton - 2.57
Fred VanVleet - 2.8
Evan Wessel - 5.68

Shooting percentages in the NCAA tournament or year (highest given):

Cleanthony Early - 34.8%
Ron Baker - 42.8%
Nick Wiggins - 41.9%
Tekele Cotton - 50%
Fred VanVleet - 40.8%
Evan Wessel - 45.8%
Derail Green - 35% (high school)
Ria'n Holland - 37% (high school)

Expected shots per game

Cleanthony Early - 4.32 in 28.6 minutes
Ron Baker - 4.68 in 26.1 minutes
Nick Wiggins - 3.05 in 19 minutes
Tekele Cotton - 1.79 in 25.1 minutes
Fred VanVleet - 2.22 in 28.6 minutes
Evan Wessel - 3.93 in 24.9 minutes

151.3 minutes to guards + Early (last year total average minutes was 238 due to injuries)

Expected shooting percentage from main players: 41.9% (#1 in 2013 was 41.4%)


Replacing Hall/Armstead (+ Orukpe)

Carl Hall: 12.5 PPG / 6.8 RPG / 1.7 BPG
Carl Hall per minute: 0.437 / 0.238 / 0.059Carl Hall + Orukpe: 15.1 PPG / 11.2 RPG / 3.3 BPG

Kadeem Coleby @ Louisiana Lafeyette: 9.5 PPG / 4.9 RPG / 2.4 BPG
Kadeem Coleby per minute: 0.389 / 0.201 / 0.098
Darius Carter (expected): 9.0 PPG / 4.6 RPG / 0.7 BPG (numbers derived from Hall's first season and Carter's JUCO numbers)
Coleby + Carter = 18.5 PPG / 9.5 RPG / 3.1 BPG

Average change for a Marshall 2nd year JUCO (per minute): 3.57% PPM / 6.05% RPM / 46.5% BPM
Early's expected change: 2.5 PPG / 1.1 RPG / 0.6 BPG
Coleby + Carter + Early's Change = 21 PPG / 10.6 RPG / 3.7 BPG (Significantly more points/blocks, slightly less rebounds)

Armstead: 10.7 PPG / 3.8 RPG / 4 APG / 1.9 SPG
Per Minute: 0.374 PPM / 0.133 RPM / 0.14 APM / 0.066 SPM

Van Vleet per minute: 0.265 PPM / 0.111 RPM / 0.142 APM / 0.056 SPM
Baker per minute: 0.335 PPM / 0.124 RPM / 0.068 APM / 0.03 SPM
Wessel per minute: 0.289 PPM / 0.095 RPM / 0.1 APM / 0.016 SPM

Average change for Marshall sophomore: 17.8% / 17.1% / 23.0% / 65.1%
Van Vleet expected: 0.312 PPM / 0.13 RPM / 0.175 APM / 0.092 SPM
Baker expected: 0.395 PPM / 0.145 RPM / 0.084 APM / 0.05 SPM
Wessel expected: 0.341 PPM / 0.111 RPM / 0.123 APM / 0.026 SPM

Van Vleet per game: 8.92 PPG / 3.72 RPG / 5.01 APG / 1.59 SPG
Baker per game: 10.31 PPG / 3.78 RPG / 2.19 APG / 1.31 SPG
Wessel per game: 8.5 PPG / 2.76 RPG / 3.06 APG / 0.65 SPG

Change: 9.23 PPG / 3.46 RPG / 4.26 APG / 1.55 SPG

Totals:

Hall + Orukpe + Armstead: 25.8 PPG / 15 RPG / 3.1 BPG (H+O) / 4 APG (A) / 1.9 SPG (A)
Carter/Coleby + Change in Early/Van Vleet/Baker/Wessel: 30.2 PPG / 14.1 RPG / 3.7 BPG / 4.3 APG / 1.6 SPG

Expected stats for entire team:

	MPG	PPG	RPG	BPG	APG	SPG
Cleanthony Early	28.6	16.4	6.53	1.50	0.79	0.86
Fred VanVleet	28.6	8.9	3.72	0.22	5.00	2.62
Ron Baker	26.1	10.3	3.75	0.37	4.92	1.32
Darius Carter	25.1	9.1	4.65	0.70	0.50	0.70
Tekele Cotton	24.9	7.4	4.45	0.24	1.99	1.39
Evan Wessel	23.7	8.1	2.63	0.15	2.92	0.50
Ria'n Holland	19	4.0	2.03	0.10	1.70	0.60
Nick Wiggins	16.2	6.4	2.42	0.37	0.44	0.41
Kadeem Coleby	15.1	6.1	3.50	2.17	0.53	0.27
Derail Green	12.8	4.0	2.01	0.30	0.30	0.15
Chadrack Lufile	10.9	2.3	2.63	0.61	0.48	0.12
Zach Bush	6	1.2	0.31	0.2	0.2	0.1
John Robert Simon	1.9	0.2	0.11	0	0	0
Shaquille Morris	RS	RS	RS	RS	RS	RS
Team	-	71.8	36.7	6.30	17.0	7.72

In short, we will score more with much better efficiency (especially from the 3PT line), and get more steals, assists, and blocks. However, we will not rebound as well. Of those numbers, I would expect points and rebounds to be fairly accurate, though our assists will be slightly lower. By my stats (which may are more likely to be high than low), we could be:

• Top 10 in 3PT% (40+%)
• Top 10 in block percentage and blocks per game (15+% and more than 6 BPG)
• Top 15 in overall offensive efficiency (> 114 points per 100 possessions, in KenPom terms).
• Top 30 in steal percentage and steals per game (12+% and more than 7.5 SPG)
• Top 30 in assist percentage (60+% and more than 16 APG)

If blocks and steals are a good measure of our defense, we should be even better than last year, where KenPom ranked us 25th. On offense, our increase in efficiency should put us well in the top 25. Last year teams with good balance (top 30ish in both categories) finished the year ranked between #1 and #14 in KenPom's rating system. If we are a Top 15 team on both sides of the ball we'd be ranked around #8. Louisville was rated #1 with Top 5 ratings in both categories.

[pie n eye]

Sssddkkkkkkksssssssshhhhhhhhh .....,,,,,,,,,

[wufan]

What a fantastic synopsis! It looks like you've allowed for a slight overage in minutes played (which I assume was done to take into account OT and possibly games in which not everyone plays). Is this factored in to the average scoring as predicted above?

In replacing Hall and Orukpe's numbers, you list Carter and Colbey as combining for 18.5 ppg, but when you view the predicted team stats they would combine for 15.2 ppg.

What predictor did you use for PT? I think it looks pretty solid, but I would challenge Carter at 25 mpg and Colbey at 15.

[CBB_Fan]

What a fantastic synopsis! It looks like you've allowed for a slight overage in minutes played (which I assume was done to take into account OT and possibly games in which not everyone plays). Is this factored in to the average scoring as predicted above?

In replacing Hall and Orukpe's numbers, you list Carter and Colbey as combining for 18.5 ppg, but when you view the predicted team stats they would combine for 15.2 ppg.

What predictor did you use for PT? I think it looks pretty solid, but I would challenge Carter at 25 mpg and Colbey at 15.

Average scoring per player was not reduced down, but the team scoring was. I think the Carter/Coleby numbers accidentally got reduced when I was playing around with the formula, and should be higher. I believe that simply summing the scoring led to a total scoring of around 83. When you account for the Carter/Colby change, it should jump to around 73.5. Other stats were also reduced, but not by the same ratio as that was there was some variance last year between the summed stats and the teams average per game.

For playing time, I worked from the total minutes available last year and the time given to each position and translated it with a few corrections (ex: Reducing 7.9 minutes to 6 and 1.9 for the walk-ons) to this year's team. I calculated stats on a per minute basis given the average changes I listed above (and a few other factors), and then multiplied those stats by minutes predicted to get the total stats.

It was hardest to calculate values for new players, so I tended to use baselines from past players with modifications based around individual tendencies (ie Hall had more rebounds per point than Carter is predicted to have). Green for example used Wiggins as baseline. Colby's numbers assumed that he would play around the same amount as Orukpe I believe, which probably won't be the case but wasn't too much of an issue in the calculations so I didn't adjust it. Carter's minutes came from Early, which assumed that he would play a fair amount of backup C in addition to backing up Early at PF.

Overall these stats are just a rough estimate, designed more to highlight style than effectiveness. I feel that the numbers are good approximations for what I'd expect in terms of a player's ratio of points/rebounds/etc, even if the totals are a little off. For instance I'd expect Van Vleet and Baker will have around a 2/1 ratio for points/assists, even if the numbers shift around and they end up averaging fewer minutes or points, and I'd expect that our biggest loss from last year will be Hall's rebounding. I think the most interesting thing is the potential to improve as a shooting team by replacing minutes from Armstead and Williams with minutes by Van Vleet, Baker, and Wessel.