Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

I'm a Louisville fan, here's our scouting report, ask me anything...

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • I'm a Louisville fan, here's our scouting report, ask me anything...

    Well, I've seen some of your fans post on Louisville forums so I thought I'd post here. I did some reading of your posts breaking down the Louisville team, so I thought I'd give you an in depth look at the players that isn't always reported in the box score and stat sheets. I'm very respectful, so I'll be happy to answer any questions. I won't slam your program. I'll try to give an objective analysis and answer questions as objectively as I can.

    About:

    The team.
    As you already know, Louisville is really good on defense. Really really good. It's the best defense Ken Pomeroy (of Kenpom.com) has ever recorded. They will slap at the ball all the way up the court and ride you from baseline to baseline. Some teams press to speed you up, some teams press to slow you down, some teams press to turn you over. Louisville can do all three. Louisville plays a matchup zone, which essentially means they can switch to man when needed. Against Duke, the ran a hybrid defense that changed when Seth Curry had the ball. What defense will they run against WSU? WHo knows, probably 3 or 4 and all of the intertwined. The Louisville offense is also top 5 in the nation in efficiency. Last season, when Louisville went to the final four, they were 103rd in offense. They don't have a particularly good jump shooter, although Luke Hancock has had a really good run. They don't shoot a lot of three point baskets. The big men are some of the best in the nation at running the pick and roll, and they generate most of their points in the half court from that set. About 1/3rd of their points are generated from turnovers. Lousivlle has avenged every loss they've had this season in convincing fashion except for Georgetown, whom they only had the opportunity to play once. Louisville has won 14 in a row and 17 of 18, the only loss coming in 5OTs to Notre Dame. In the postseason, only one team has come within single digits. Oregon, who was allowed to cut it to 8 on an uncontested layup in the closing seconds. In the postseason, Louisville's average margin of victory is over 18 points. Louisville is prone to foul trouble, as they play a very very aggressive style of defense. It doesn't affect them much, however. They have 9 players that average double-digit minutes (eight now that Ware is out) and they can sub in any of those nine and not really lose anything. Their best rebounder (van tresse) is a bench player. Their best shooter is a bench player (Hancock). Louisville has 4 big guys that will throw you around without issue. They are deep in the front court.

    The Starters
    Peyton Siva. Washington Native and senior starting PG. He doesn't have an amazing offensive repertoire. He averages less than 10 PPG and shoots about 30% from 3. What he does do well is manage a game and play defense. He's an incredible on-ball defender. He's made really good NBA-level PGs look really bad (see Phil Pressey). He is prone to foul trouble, as he makes some really boneheaded plays at times. He tends to get a couple of frustration fouls a game.

    Russ Smith. Bronx native, 2 star recruit, starting 2-guard. Endearingly nicknamed "Russdiculous", he has an amazing offensive repertoire and has dropped many of the mistakes that led to Russdiculous being used as a pejorative. He maintains a substantial lead in Kenpom's player of the year rankings, although he gets little mainstream POY pub. In the post season, he's averaging over 21 PPG (I think 26ppg in this tournament). He had 8 steals in the NCAAT opener, matching an NCAA record. When he sees a 1 on 3 fastbreak, he thinks that he has the advantage. He makes no bones about it. He draws a lot...A LOT of fouls. He shoots about 7FTs a game and makes them at an 83% clip. He'll run into a brick wall if he thinks he can shoot freethrows. He plays incredible defense and doesn't get into a lot of foul trouble much unlike Siva. I don't think he's fouled out of a game this season.

    Wayne Blackshear. Chicago native and starting 3. Nicknamed Fat-Wayne, he entered the season terribly out of shape. He's a sophomore and former Illinois player of the year (beating out Anthony Davis for that honor). He has failed to live up to expectations. Whereas in highschool, he used to drive hard and accumulate a lot of points, he's now become a spot-up shooter, and not a great one. Many posit this is a result of timidness due to shoulder injuries he's suffered. He's getting better on defense, but still not great. He's been steadily getting less minutes than his backup, Luke Hancock.

    Chane Behanan. Pronounced "Shane". Starting 4. More of a tweener without the shooting skills. He plays with a lot of heart and is 2nd in team rebounding (but probably the 4th best rebounder). Last season he played like a man and won the west region MVP. He was a huge contributor in last years final four run. We haven't seen that Chane yet this season. He has potential, but he has yet to reach it again. He has the worst hands on the team and cannot catch a basketball if a stork delivered it to him in a blanket.

    Gorgui Dieng. Junior center, Senegal native, speaks 5 languages, and NBA bound next season. He broke his wrist earlier this season against Missouri and missed a significant number of games. He was awarded the BE defensive player of the year (after being robbed of it last season). He owns the inside. He averages almost a double-double a game, he's one of the best passing big men in college basketball, and if you leave him open for an 18-ft jumper he'll make you pay for it.

    The bench:

    Luke Hancock. backup 3, plays more minutes than the starter. He's the shooter on the team. The kid can stroke the three-ball. He had what was described as the worst shoulder injury the trainer had ever seen in the preseason. The kid couldn't shoot a lick at the start of the year. Although he's a 37% shooter from 3, he's shooting over 50% in the month of March. His inability to shoot earlier this year killed his percentage. When he started off the season, he couldn't even lift his shoulder to grab a board. Now he's healthy and it's paying dividends. He's a good defender (not great), but very intelligent. He knows the passing lanes well and he is a very good passer, ball handler, and decision maker.

    Montrezl Harrell. Pronounced Mon-trez (the L is silent). He was once an VaTech committ who chose Louisville after Seth Greenburg was fouled. He comes in and is a massive energy spark off the bench, He was the Big East Championship game MVP, scoring 20 points and 7 rebounds. He will outwork and out hustle everyone on the team. He's slowly eaten into the minutes of Chane Behanan in March. He shoots 57% from the field largely because almost all his points are from dunks. Horrible FT shooter, 50%.

    Stephen Van-Treese. Backup center. Per minute, he's the best rebounder on the team. He's gradually gotten more minutes as Pitino has tried to give Gorgui some rest on the bench. High energy guy who generates a good amount of second-chance points by tipping the ball up. He wasn't even on the team a few weeks before the season started, as he was to transfer. He came back when a scholarship was available. He filled in at starting center when Dieng was out with a broken wrist. Louisville won every game except against Duke (and only lost by 5 with less than 24hours of prep for the loss of their starting center). The minutes he puts in are quality minutes.

    What we lost with Kevin Ware - Backup one or two-guard. He played a tremendous post-season. Maybe the best on-ball defender on the team and knows the passing lanes better than anyone. His length is his asset. He deflects a lot of passes which usually result in fast-break points. He's not a huge scorer, but he is a capable shooter. His ball-handling and decision making aren't near the level of Siva, but he made up for it in intensity and defense. Without Ware, Luke Hancock may move to the backup two role putting he and Blackshear on the court at the same time. Luke is a great ball handler and a really solid shooter. He makes great decisions. I expect him to fill that role fine when needed. Tim Henderson may also see some increased minutes. I really have no commentary on that other than I hope he doesn't play too much.

    Edit: Is the text black for everyone, or just me? Very hard on the eyes. Feel free to modedit if it's formatted incorrectly.

  • #2
    What did Illinois St, Northern Iowa and Pittsburgh do that caused Louisville problems?

    Comment


    • #3
      Pitt simply showed up. Don't let them fool you, they are a very good team. They were top 10 in Kenpom. However, Jamie Dixon has a reputation for sucking hard in the post season. Google it. Mike Brey and Jamie Dixon cannot play post season basketball. That's not a shot at you as much of an acknowledgment of history.

      Dieng was out against Illinois State, but honestly, they and NIU just played well. I wouldn't put a lot of weight in your analysis of common opponents for two reasons. A. The transitive property doesn't apply in college hoops. It never has. And B. this isn't the same team that played at the start of the year. Hancock couldn't lift his shoulder the first month (shoulder surgery). Dieng was out. The team didnt have the cohesiveness they did then. I don't expect to evaluate WSU on their games in November. Why would I? I want to know how you've been playing in February and March. So much changes with teams over the course of three months.

      Comment


      • #4
        My thoughts and prayers are with Ware. That was a terrible injury.
        Marge: The plant called and said that if you don't come in tomorrow, don't bother coming in Monday.
        Homer: WOOHOO! Four day weekend.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Joneildu View Post
          Pitt simply showed up. Don't let them fool you, they are a very good team. They were top 10 in Kenpom. However, Jamie Dixon has a reputation for sucking hard in the post season. Google it. Mike Brey and Jamie Dixon cannot play post season basketball. That's not a shot at you as much of an acknowledgment of history.

          Dieng was out against Illinois State, but honestly, they and NIU just played well. I wouldn't put a lot of weight in your analysis of common opponents for two reasons. A. The transitive property doesn't apply in college hoops. It never has. And B. this isn't the same team that played at the start of the year. Hancock couldn't lift his shoulder the first month (shoulder surgery). Dieng was out. The team didnt have the cohesiveness they did then. I don't expect to evaluate WSU on their games in November. Why would I? I want to know how you've been playing in February and March. So much changes with teams over the course of three months.
          Neither are we
          I just want to stand on land...

          @rjl:
          If I had a gun with two bullets and was in a room with Hitler, Bin Laden, and a Creighton fan, I think I'd shoot the Creighton fan twice.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by LandStander View Post
            Neither are we
            I know...

            I don't expect to evaluate WSU on their games in November. Why would I? I want to know how you've been playing in February and March. So much changes with teams over the course of three months.

            Comment


            • #7
              We're different from Feb as well considering one of our best players didn't play through most of Dec and all of Jan. and Feb.
              Infinity Art Glass - Fantastic local artist and Shocker fan
              RIP Guy Always A Shocker
              Carpenter Place - A blessing to many young girls/women
              ICT S.O.S - Great local cause fighting against human trafficking
              Wartick Insurance Agency - Saved me money with more coverage.
              Save Shocker Sports - A rallying cry

              Comment


              • #8
                What is the airspeed velocity of a fully laden swallow?








                Sorry, I couldn't resist. You said to ask you anything. ;) Thanks for the scouting report.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by SubGod22 View Post
                  We're different from Feb as well considering one of our best players didn't play through most of Dec and all of Jan. and Feb.
                  I even think we're different since Arch Madness, Baker's only been back since March 7th! Every game we get stronger and healthier
                  I just want to stand on land...

                  @rjl:
                  If I had a gun with two bullets and was in a room with Hitler, Bin Laden, and a Creighton fan, I think I'd shoot the Creighton fan twice.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    What do you mean, African or European swallow?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Well played Joneildu.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Joneildu View Post
                        What do you mean, African or European swallow?
                        I like this guy.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          lou has THE full court press for sure. wu has the best handles in the country left for sure. duck fuke. how do you see that one playing out? is this like the immovable force vs. the unstoppable object? let us know (something other than the talking heads that know jack about the shockers and pick lou hands down).

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The one thing I saw when I looked at Louisville's games against our common opponents was a low 3PT% (under 30% in games against Pitt, Illinois State, and UNI). Marshall is going to try and make them beat us with their shooting, but we'll see how effective that is. They can beat opponents when they shoot badly (as they won all of those games), and Louisville has a very versatile defense that can play a lot of different styles.

                            In order to beat Louisville, we have to keep TOs down, outshoot them, and force them to play a half-court game. Oh, and do a better job of rebounding than the best rebounding team in the country (CSU). It will be interesting to see how fouls are called and how the teams shoot from outside. I think those two factors could decide the game.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by another shocker View Post
                              lou has THE full court press for sure. wu has the best handles in the country left for sure. duck fuke. how do you see that one playing out? is this like the immovable force vs. the unstoppable object? let us know (something other than the talking heads that know jack about the shockers and pick lou hands down).
                              I'm not going to act like I'm a shocker enthusiast and can tell you how your guards will handle the press, but I can talk about other teams. Phil Pressey was made a fool of, he's an elite NBA caliber point guard. He couldnt stop turning the ball over. Oregon averaged 15 turnovers a game and we couldn't mount anything against them (they're also very speedy). We had more turnovers than they did iirc. This is where coaching is imperative. Oregon practiced against 6 players and still had trouble simulating it. You're going to have trouble in bounding, once you get it inbounded, you have to cross half court, once you cross half court, you have to deal with the Frankenstein bastardization of whatever defense is being ran. Teams that do well have long players who handle the ball well and make good decisions. If you have multiple ball handlers (and I think you have a few players capable of running the point), and some good front court players who aren't afraid to bring the ball across half court, WSU can limit their turnovers, if not, it could be a long day.

                              I'll admit, I was thoroughly unimpressed with how Wichita handled Ohio state when they started to full court press. I don't know if that's indicative of how Wichita State handles it against Louisville or how theyve handled pass presses, but Louisville will do that for 40 minutes and much more efficiently than OSU did it.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X