WSU VS. LOUISVILLE PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[Capitol Shock II]

Thanks for the info. I certainly think Louisville is the best team in the tournament. And they completely blew out MVC powerhouse northern Iowa by a gaudy five points and mma conference champion Illinois state by a whopping 3 points. I suppose that our guys are terrified and may not even board the plane.

However if your players show up with the same level of confidence you show it is going to be them that are shell shocked.

I have watched Louisville a few times this year and have been impressed with their talent. However they do look like they foul a lot play with more athleticism than intellect.

[moshock]

Cardinalfan123 - see Pitt - Gonzaga & Ohio State for "shell-SHOCKED". All three of those teams were going to blow us out and all three went home singing a different tune about us.

We've heard the same BS all year about our team - starting at VCU. Of our common opponents - UNI, Ill St, Pitt - your best margin of victory was 5. We only lost 1 time to any of those teams and manhandled all of them in the other 5 games - some by a blowout.

This will be a good game and can go either way.

[Dan]

All 3 thought we were lucky that they played their worst game of the year. I guess we have to hope Louisville plays their worst game of the year against us. Funny how that happens.

[jocoshock]

This is USA vs Soviets 1980.

I hate to pick against the Shox, so I won't gonns be a tough game. Will be great to see how we pull this one off.

Good comparison. The 1982 game against the Soviets had Antoine Carr out with a stress fracture, a young, yet to be discovered Xavier McDaniel, Karl Papke, Zarko, and a new crop of spunky freshment: Gary Cundiff, Bernard Jackson, and Gilbert Wilburn. No superstars on the Shox; several superstars on the USSR team.

We won that game with toughness (MTXE), hustle and ATTiTUDE!! We definitely played angry.

I seem to recall we won that game by 3 or 4 points. I will go with that for this game.

#PLAYANGRY #NOTSATISFIED

[jocoshock]

I'm not encouraged. You gotta know that Lousivillle is going to dedicate the rest of the season to Ware. The last thing you want in a game like this is for your opponent to have any unusual motivation.

And don't be surprised if Ware is not there on his crutches. It will provide lots of drama. This will be an extremely tough game for the Shox to win, but we are an extremely tough team. No point in being worried, having doubt or not being encouraged at this point. There is no turning back now.. #PLAYANGRY #NOTSATISIFIED #LETITALLHANGOUT #WATCHUS ...win...

[Kung Wu]

Screw every single one of you that says Loo-evil is the best team in the tournament. The Shox are.

Interesting stat:
Shox are now 6 and 2 against top 25 opponents. (.750 win percentage against top 25)
Loo-evil is 6 and 3 against top 25 opponents. (.667 win percentage against top 25)

Loo-evil's weakness:
Defensive rebounding. Second chance points will be there for us, if we are aggressive on the offensive glass.

Where Loo-evil is better than us:
Steals
Offensive efficiency

WSU is better than them:
Rebounding
Screwing up people's brackets

Loo-evil is virtually identical to us in these categories:
Turnovers
Assists
Blocks
Fouls

[shoxlax]

Tempo, Pace, Tempo, Pace.

Bill Snyder ball.

It's the greatest equalizer in sports.

We will have a game plan superior to anyone Louisville has played so far in the tourney. That I promise you.

If we are within single digits with five minutes or less in the game, I like our chances. A lot.

[jocoshock]

Yes, I know these games were early in the season, but they provide some insight...
Northern Iowa Game - Louisville had Northern Iowa down by 18 in the first half and won by 5

"We didn't play well, but when you don't play well, there is a reason. And the reason was their team," Louisville coach Rick Pitino said. "They are really good at what they do. They clog it up so you cannot get anything inside. They will give you a few shots from the outside, which we didn't hit. Our press was very effective, but because we shot such a low percentage, we couldn't get it to take its toll."

From the Illinois State game (Louisville won by 3)

Siva -- the Big East preseason player of the year -- went to the bench with his fourth foul with 13:09 to play. Smith then carried the Louisville offense with his backcourt partner out, driving to the basket and drawing fouls. He hit six of eight free throws in a three-minute stretch, the last cutting the Illinois State lead to 55-51 with 10:03 to play.
Siva returned with 9:07 left, Illinois State up 57-51. Smith's steal from Johnny Hill and layup 21 seconds later was Louisville's first field goal in nearly four minutes. Luke Hancock immediately drew a charge on Hill on the next possession and Siva's 3-pointer off an inbounds play with 8:33 remaining cut the lead to one.

Pretty obvious - make your shots, make them miss their's; don't let them press and if they do, handle it. Don't let them drive to the basket and avoid the fouls... And getting in foul trouble (if you can) will help....

[MizzouShockerFan]

I think a good indicator of the matchup between us and Louisville lies in the Colorado State-Louisville 3rd round game. Having watched CSU a couple times this year, I think they play a very similar style to us, with not quite the athleticism. CSU had a tremendous amount of trouble with the press. If memory serves, there were even 4-5 times CSU was called for 10 seconds. CSU really tried to push them around down low, which Louisville struggled a little bit with. The game was close for a while, I think it was 13 at the half. At the end, Louisville just wore them out. I think we will fare better than the Rams, but am concerned that a turnover number over 7 will spell doom for us. If we keep TO's under 7, we win by 5, 72-67.

[ShockTalk]

At this stage of the game, if you want to win, you better play your best or go home. The Shocks have the grit and attitude to do this and we'll need for them to continue to ignore being "under the big lights".

Thanks to @cardinalfan123: for his post. However, it is what it is and Lou is not as deep as it was. His 8-10 players is a little of a stretch. They are basically 8 deep. That's not to say the rest of the bench is not talented, but they have not played that much. The Cards have 3 players of 30+ mpg. Given their number of wins and blowouts, I find that odd with "such a deep and talented bench". With Ware out, our #11 player has almost twice as many minutes as their #9 and our #10 the same number as their #8.

Most any team can get hot and become uncanny from 3 point land, but that is not what one would expect form Louisvile. For the season, they have one guy, Hancock, who is their 3 point specialist. He's somewhat of a Wragge clone as 3 of 4 shots come from beyond the arc. However, at .372, he's their best 3 shooter by 40 percentage points. As a team, WSU is better than there #2 guy. This comes with a warning for our guys. Find the hot hands! Cle, DWill, and Mal need to remember they have 4 other guys who can shoot the rock from long range. FVV, Cotton, Wiggins, and now with Ron back, these four have hit for .385 this season.

I also cannot say that the Cards know how to play phyiscal without fouling. Smith, Siva, Dieng, and Blackshear all average at least 2.5 fouls per game. Early is the only Shocker that would be in that group at 2.5 fpg. If Louisville doesn't think we know a little about tough D, that will be their problem.

PS, Cards. Don't underestimate how hard and smart Coach Marshall works as well.

I agree with @cardinalfan123: that Louisville has been the #1 team for the 2013 season and we will need to play angry and play tough, but also play smart and under control. They are a very good basketball team, but have chinks in their armor. Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio St, even LaSalle, are very good basketball teams. We found their chinks. Can we find and expose Louisville's.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Some Louisville stats:

3FG%, adjusted for Ware's absence - 32.4%
Personal fouls per game - 17.8
Turnovers per game - 12.7
Team FT% - 64.8
Smith FT% - 82.7
Siva FT% - 85.4

[kcshocker11]

67 to 64 Shockers

[calfan]

First of all Louisville is the #1 team in the nation. They are a great team. Having said that, Cardinalfan123 forgot one weekness that I think that WSU could exploit. WSU has guards that are bigger and stronger than the Cardinal guards. I would think about inverting the WSU offense and put the guards down low and shoot short jump shots over their smaller guards and then crashing the boards. I like Cotton's chances against Siva one on one of getting offensive rebounds. I like Baker's chances of getting rebounds or shooting over Russ Smith. If Dieng comes down to help, kick it out to open shooters Armstead and Early for 3. Dieng is also possibly open to foul trouble. It looked like he couldn't wait yesterday to go after a block.

I also believe that no matter what the coach tells them, they have already started scouting Michigan and Syracuse for the title game. If I looked at cardinalfan123's scouting report, I know I would be.

[Dan]

we foul an aweful lot as well. That aspect concerns me for this game. We need Hall and Early to play hard and smart. Orukpe will get a lot of minutes as well - we need to clog the lanes just like we did against OSU.

[KC Shox]

“You don’t have to be better than them 365 days out of the year, but for 40 minutes, that’s all it takes,” Wichita State point guard Malcolm Armstead said as a piece of the net dangled from his new Final Four hat. “If you’re better than somebody for 40 minutes this time of the year, it doesn’t matter. Anything can be accomplished.” - Malcom ArmSTUD.