Nate Silver forecasts the tourney

[kcshocker11]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html?_r=0


He called the election right, but hes gonna be wrong here:hurt:

[jocoshock]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html?_r=0


He called the election right, but hes gonna be wrong here:hurt:

Nate started as a baseball statistician. The year after the Chicago White Sox won the World Series, he predicted they would finish 5 games over .500 the next season. Everyone said he was crazy. The White Sox finished 5 games over .500....

He says Pitt has a 62.1% chance of beating the Shox. That is not unreasonable. It gives us better odds than Jim Carey had in the movie Dumb and Dumber.... so he saying there's still a chance... :peaceful:

[Shockeriffic]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html?_r=0


He called the election right, but hes gonna be wrong here:hurt:

Even if we beat Pitt, he won't be wrong. He'd be wrong if the teams he gave a 60% chance of winning didn't win 60% of the time.

[jdmee]

Even if we beat Pitt, he won't be wrong. He'd be wrong if the teams he gave a 60% chance of winning didn't win 60% of the time.

That's not entirely correct either. If you flip a coin you have a 50% chance of it being heads. If you flip it 100 times and every time it came up heads doesn't meant that it wasn't a 50/50 chance. It just meant you got lucky and hit heads 100% of the time.

[Shockeriffic]

That's not entirely correct either. If you flip a coin you have a 50% chance of it being heads. If you flip it 100 times and every time it came up heads doesn't meant that it wasn't a 50/50 chance. It just meant you got lucky and hit heads 100% of the time.

Sure but if all the teams he had pegged to win 60% of their games won every time then he'd go back and look at his methods to make sure he was getting the odds correct. Just like you'd check the coin to make sure it wasn't double sided.

[Dave Stalwart]

I'm not smart enough for this thread

[1979Shocker]

More Nate Silver odds.

What are the chances Wichita State and Kansas are both in the Final Four? Or that they meet in the championship game?

Not very good, but certainly better than it was a week ago.

Stats maven Nate Silver of the New York Times gives Wichita State a 23.6-percent chance to reach the Final Four and KU surprisingly only a 23.3-percent chance with his statistical forecast.

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/2013/03/27/273...#storylink=cpy

[1979Shocker]

Also, Nate Silver has the odds of WSU and KU meeting in the championship game at 0.5 percent. I guess that's better odds than meeting during the regular season.

[_kai_]

Also, Nate Silver has the odds of WSU and KU meeting in the championship game at 0.5 percent. I guess that's better odds than meeting during the regular season.

[Shockeriffic]

The main reason that the odds for Kansas making the Final Four are low is because the computer systems love Florida. The odds for a Kansas vs Wichita St championship game are now better than the odds for us just making the title game were at the start of the tournament.