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**ripemupshocks** · March 13, 2013, 04:15 PM

Give us a BCS team. Not afraid of anyone. Just like beating BCS teams.

**another shocker** · March 13, 2013, 04:17 PM

butler has some nice wins.

i'd like to see shocks vs unc. marshall would prepare the team well for them imo.

**CBB_Fan** · March 13, 2013, 05:49 PM

The first thing I want to do is look at which opponents are probably going to be overseeded. I'll use the easiest bubble solver (KenPom + RPI) to give me an S-curve, and then compare teams with Joe Lunardi's S-curve. I'll spare the details for brevity. These are the teams most likely to be overseeded:

Team: Lunardi-EBS (difference)
Every 4 teams roughly corresponds to a seed (not counting play-in games), so 3 means a 1 seed, 7 a two seed, 13 a four, &c.

Oregon: 33 - 56 (23)*
California: 36 - 54 (18)*
Kansas State: 14 - 28 (14)
Butler: 24 - 36 (12)
Notre Dame: 25 - 37 (12)
Temple: 44 - 56 (12)*
Wisconsin: 16 - 37 (11)
UCLA: 23 - 34 (11)
Illinois: 32 - 42 (10)
Villanova: 41 - 51 (10)*

* - would not make tournament according to EBS

If we assume Wichita State could be ranked anywhere from a 9 seed to an 11 seed, you can eliminate the following first round opponents (too high or low seed): Kansas State (4 seed), California (10) Temple (10), Wisconsin (4), and Villanova (10).

If anyone is wondering, I also have a list of underseeded teams. We are #6 on the list (EBS has us 9 spots higher than Lunardi), with Saint Mary's, Colorado St., Creighton, Belmont, and Minnesota above us. Anyway, let's assume that we could face opponents under different circumstances, and use that to determine how different the quality of the teams would be from their seeding. We are roughly a 9 seed in quality by EBS, so as a 9 seed we would be right at our ranking, but as an 11 or 12 seed we'd be tremendously underseeded. Here are your possible scenarios:

Oregon (8) versus Wichita State (9): Oregon wouldn't make the tournament by EBS, but we are close to even with our expected statistical ranking. Still, this would be a combined ratings mismatch of about 6 seeds (meaning that instead of 1 seed under Oregon, we should be 5 better than them). 6 seed difference (meaning the actual match-up is 6 seeds away from being correct, not that we are 6 seeds better than them necessarily. If a 1 seed were overseeded by 6, they'd still be 2 seeds above us).
Butler (6) versus Wichita State (11): This is a likely matchup from Joe Lunardi's S-curve. Butler is statistically about dead even with Wichita State (one spot behind us actually by EBS), so the game would basically be a pick'em despite Butler's higher seed. 5 seed difference.
Notre Dame (6) versus Wichita State (11): Same circumstances as Butler. Notre Dame is the first ten seed by EBS, but could get a seed 5 spots higher. 7 seed difference (barely)
UCLA (6) versus Wichita State (11): UCLA just above us in EBS, but ranked as a possible 5 seed. If they fall to a 6 seed, they'll be slightly less overseeded. 5 seed difference.
Illinois (8) versus Wichita State (9): Illinois would be slightly overseeded, but we would be pretty close to our actual ranking. 3 seed difference

Most of the teams in the 7 to 8 seed range are not particularly overseeded. In fact, they are more likely to be severely underseeded than overseeded. If you are worried about a second round matchup against 1 or 2 seeds, Georgetown is the only team that is significantly overseeded, with Florida and Michigan State slightly underseeded. Instead, let's look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team I've already talked about and compare them to us.

Remember, the seed difference doesn't mean we are probably better than those teams. It says that Lunardi's seeding statistically is favoring those teams by too much, but the actual results are in most cases a wash. Instead of being the 70/30 games you'd expect from those matchups, they would be 50/50 games (not 70/30 our way). So matchups are important.

Oregon has some pretty exploitable weaknesses. They turn the ball over at a high rate (262th in the nation), and aren't good shooters (279). Their strengths are rebounding (42 on offense, 34 on defense), avoiding blocks (15), and stealing the ball (25). They play at a fast pace (46). All in all, they are a good matchup for Wichita State, which is still a stronger rebounding team, avoids TOs to pressing teams, forces a lot of 3s, and likes to play fast. This would probably be a favorable matchup for us even if Oregon was slightly higher seeded (and again, statistically they shouldn't be an at-large team).

Butler is weak at protecting the ball (202), and even worse at forcing TOs (299). They don't block many shots (300) either. Again, they are best at rebounding (39 offense, 18 defense). They are decent on both offense and defense (70ish on both), can get to the line (84) and play at a slow pace (255). If we can exploit the TO margin and take away rebounding, we should have an advantage, but they have some similar characteristics to Evansville. Both play slow, deliberate, and can get to the line. I think this match up is iffy because of that.

Notre Dame is probably more of a stylistic mismatch than either Butler or Oregon. The MVC team that most matches them is Creighton. They hardly ever turn other teams (329), but are good at avoiding TOs themselves (36). They play VERY slow (321), get a lot of assists (4), shoot well in (37) and outside (52) the arc, and mostly play zone. All of which are bad for Wichita State. Two other side-notes: they don't get to the line often (268), but hardly ever send teams to the line (6), which means that we'd likely be at a FT deficit. All in all, not a great matchup.

UCLA is slightly better. They are a bad rebounding team (220 O, 270 D), which should give us extra possessions. They are really good at avoiding TOs (8), and giving opponents FTs (3), but little else. For a tall team (7), they are suspiciously weak at blocking shots (191), or rebounding (already mentioned), and don't make that up with shooting from the perimeter (174). Stylistically, they play at a fast pace (31), and both score and allow a lot of points in the paint (11 O, 9 D). This would be a good match up for us.

Illinois is another good match up. They shoot a ton of 3s (25), but are bad at them (235). They give up lot of FTs (197)and get little back in return (284) because of all the perimeter play). Imagine a team of Demetric Williams: a lot of contested 3s (low assists totals).

So Illinois, UCLA, and Oregon are good match-ups that likely are overseeded. Butler is a bad match-up (Evansville-esque), and Notre Dame is very bad match-up. Other teams may not be overseeded, but might be good matchups.

**AZ Shocker** · March 13, 2013, 07:09 PM

So in short...the NCAA will pair us against Butler or Notre Dame.

**CBB_Fan** · March 13, 2013, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by AZ Shocker View Post

So in short...the NCAA will pair us against Butler or Notre Dame.

I feel very confident we will pull Butler in the first round. Right seed? Check. Mid-major? Check (for now). Gimmicky and exploits our weaknesses? Check.

Almost certain match up.

**ShoxFan45** · March 13, 2013, 07:56 PM

I though the same as CBB to be honest.. Butler seems like the toughest of the possible draws. Pair that with the non-BCS teams they seem to like to pair up.. perfect storm. Would love to avoid it, however.

**Rlh04d** · March 13, 2013, 08:05 PM

I'm really hoping for Oregon. Have some good friends that are Oregon alumni, and I'd like to see Armstead up against his old school.

Not to mention that they'll be over-rated in seeding and I think we match up well against them.

**kstarheel** · March 13, 2013, 08:07 PM

NCAA will let the mid-majors beat on each other to keep their blue-bloods alive.

**GoShockers89** · March 13, 2013, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by Rlh04d View Post

I'm really hoping for Oregon. Have some good friends that are Oregon alumni, and I'd like to see Armstead up against his old school.

Not to mention that they'll be over-rated in seeding and I think we match up well against them.

I have been thinking the same. I would LOVE a matchup with Dana in our first game.

**1979Shocker** · March 13, 2013, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by kstarheel View Post

NCAA will let the mid-majors beat on each other to keep their blue-bloods alive.

Of course, that means the blue-bloods have to beat on each other, too.

**60Shock** · March 13, 2013, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by ShoxFan45 View Post

UNLV: 23-8, (10-6) MWC. Key wins: San Diego St (2X), Iowa State, @ Cal, New Mexico. Key Losses: Fresno State (2X)

Butler: 24-7, (11-5) A-10 . Key wins: Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette. Key Losses: None really.. Two worst are Charlotte and Xavier

VCU: 24-7, (12-4) A-10. Key wins: Memphis, Belmont, Butler. Key Losses: None really.. worst @ Richmond.

Notre Dame: 23-8, (11-7) Big East. Key wins: Louisville, Pitt, Cinci (2X). Key Losses: None really.. worst @ Providence and St. Johns (2X)

North Carolina: 22-9, (12-6) ACC. Key wins: UNLV, NC State. Key Losses: Texas

Colorado State: 24-7, (11-5) MWC. Key wins: UNLV, San Diego St. Key Losses: Illinois Chicago

UCLA: 23-8, (13-5) Pac-12. Key wins: Arizona (2X), Missouri. Key Losses: USC, Cal Poly, @ Washington St.

Memphis: 27-4, (16-0) C-USA. Key wins: So Miss (2X). Key Losses: None really.. worst @ Xavier

Wisconsin: 21-10, (12-6) B1G. Key wins: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois (2X). Key Losses: Purdue

Minnesota: 20-11, (8-10) B1G. Key wins: Indiana, Mich St. Memphis, Wisconsin, @ Illinois. Key Losses: @ Nebraska, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern

Pittsburgh: 24-7, (12-6) Big East. Key wins: @ Georgtown, Syracuse, UConn, @ Cinci. Key Losses: @ Rutgers

Seems like a lot of teams, but these look to me like the best options of who we might be paired up with assuming we are a 10 or 11. Thoughts on who you want to play? Predictions on who we will play?

Obviously some depends on conference tournaments, too.

Memphis seems pretty over seeded there, really didn't realize how weak C-USA was this year until I really looked at it. UCLA, Minnesota, Colo St. and maybe UNLV seem like the other best options. I would love to stay away from Butler, Wisconsin, and Pitt.

Thoughts?

Go Shox!

May or may not make any difference in who we play, but in your key wins for VCU and key loses for Butler, you somehow overlooked the March 2 game in which Butler got their clock cleaned by VCU by 32 points - 84- 52?

**ShoxFan45** · March 13, 2013, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by 60Shock View Post

May or may not make any difference in who we play, but in your key wins for VCU and key loses for Butler, you somehow overlooked the March 2 game in which Butler got their clock cleaned by VCU by 32 points - 84- 52?

Oops, you are correct. I didn't notice the margin. Obviously since the two are pretty similarly seeded, it isn't all that notable that one beat the other. Was trying to highlight bigger wins and bigger losses. I'll add it.

**ABC** · March 13, 2013, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by CBB_Fan View Post

The first thing I want to do is look at which opponents are probably going to be overseeded. I'll use the easiest bubble solver (KenPom + RPI) to give me an S-curve, and then compare teams with Joe Lunardi's S-curve. I'll spare the details for brevity. These are the teams most likely to be overseeded:

Team: Lunardi-EBS (difference)
Every 4 teams roughly corresponds to a seed (not counting play-in games), so 3 means a 1 seed, 7 a two seed, 13 a four, &c.

Oregon: 33 - 56 (23)*
California: 36 - 54 (18)*
Kansas State: 14 - 28 (14)
Butler: 24 - 36 (12)
Notre Dame: 25 - 37 (12)
Temple: 44 - 56 (12)*
Wisconsin: 16 - 37 (11)
UCLA: 23 - 34 (11)
Illinois: 32 - 42 (10)
Villanova: 41 - 51 (10)*

* - would not make tournament according to EBS

If we assume Wichita State could be ranked anywhere from a 9 seed to an 11 seed, you can eliminate the following first round opponents (too high or low seed): Kansas State (4 seed), California (10) Temple (10), Wisconsin (4), and Villanova (10).

If anyone is wondering, I also have a list of underseeded teams. We are #6 on the list (EBS has us 9 spots higher than Lunardi), with Saint Mary's, Colorado St., Creighton, Belmont, and Minnesota above us. Anyway, let's assume that we could face opponents under different circumstances, and use that to determine how different the quality of the teams would be from their seeding. We are roughly a 9 seed in quality by EBS, so as a 9 seed we would be right at our ranking, but as an 11 or 12 seed we'd be tremendously underseeded. Here are your possible scenarios:

Oregon (8) versus Wichita State (9): Oregon wouldn't make the tournament by EBS, but we are close to even with our expected statistical ranking. Still, this would be a combined ratings mismatch of about 6 seeds (meaning that instead of 1 seed under Oregon, we should be 5 better than them). 6 seed difference (meaning the actual match-up is 6 seeds away from being correct, not that we are 6 seeds better than them necessarily. If a 1 seed were overseeded by 6, they'd still be 2 seeds above us).
Butler (6) versus Wichita State (11): This is a likely matchup from Joe Lunardi's S-curve. Butler is statistically about dead even with Wichita State (one spot behind us actually by EBS), so the game would basically be a pick'em despite Butler's higher seed. 5 seed difference.
Notre Dame (6) versus Wichita State (11): Same circumstances as Butler. Notre Dame is the first ten seed by EBS, but could get a seed 5 spots higher. 7 seed difference (barely)
UCLA (6) versus Wichita State (11): UCLA just above us in EBS, but ranked as a possible 5 seed. If they fall to a 6 seed, they'll be slightly less overseeded. 5 seed difference.
Illinois (8) versus Wichita State (9): Illinois would be slightly overseeded, but we would be pretty close to our actual ranking. 3 seed difference

Most of the teams in the 7 to 8 seed range are not particularly overseeded. In fact, they are more likely to be severely underseeded than overseeded. If you are worried about a second round matchup against 1 or 2 seeds, Georgetown is the only team that is significantly overseeded, with Florida and Michigan State slightly underseeded. Instead, let's look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team I've already talked about and compare them to us.

Remember, the seed difference doesn't mean we are probably better than those teams. It says that Lunardi's seeding statistically is favoring those teams by too much, but the actual results are in most cases a wash. Instead of being the 70/30 games you'd expect from those matchups, they would be 50/50 games (not 70/30 our way). So matchups are important.

Oregon has some pretty exploitable weaknesses. They turn the ball over at a high rate (262th in the nation), and aren't good shooters (279). Their strengths are rebounding (42 on offense, 34 on defense), avoiding blocks (15), and stealing the ball (25). They play at a fast pace (46). All in all, they are a good matchup for Wichita State, which is still a stronger rebounding team, avoids TOs to pressing teams, forces a lot of 3s, and likes to play fast. This would probably be a favorable matchup for us even if Oregon was slightly higher seeded (and again, statistically they shouldn't be an at-large team).

Butler is weak at protecting the ball (202), and even worse at forcing TOs (299). They don't block many shots (300) either. Again, they are best at rebounding (39 offense, 18 defense). They are decent on both offense and defense (70ish on both), can get to the line (84) and play at a slow pace (255). If we can exploit the TO margin and take away rebounding, we should have an advantage, but they have some similar characteristics to Evansville. Both play slow, deliberate, and can get to the line. I think this match up is iffy because of that.

Notre Dame is probably more of a stylistic mismatch than either Butler or Oregon. The MVC team that most matches them is Creighton. They hardly ever turn other teams (329), but are good at avoiding TOs themselves (36). They play VERY slow (321), get a lot of assists (4), shoot well in (37) and outside (52) the arc, and mostly play zone. All of which are bad for Wichita State. Two other side-notes: they don't get to the line often (268), but hardly ever send teams to the line (6), which means that we'd likely be at a FT deficit. All in all, not a great matchup.

UCLA is slightly better. They are a bad rebounding team (220 O, 270 D), which should give us extra possessions. They are really good at avoiding TOs (8), and giving opponents FTs (3), but little else. For a tall team (7), they are suspiciously weak at blocking shots (191), or rebounding (already mentioned), and don't make that up with shooting from the perimeter (174). Stylistically, they play at a fast pace (31), and both score and allow a lot of points in the paint (11 O, 9 D). This would be a good match up for us.

Illinois is another good match up. They shoot a ton of 3s (25), but are bad at them (235). They give up lot of FTs (197)and get little back in return (284) because of all the perimeter play). Imagine a team of Demetric Williams: a lot of contested 3s (low assists totals).

So Illinois, UCLA, and Oregon are good match-ups that likely are overseeded. Butler is a bad match-up (Evansville-esque), and Notre Dame is very bad match-up. Other teams may not be overseeded, but might be good matchups.

Please summarize.

**jdmee** · March 13, 2013, 09:44 PM

Here

Originally posted by ABC View Post

Please summarize.

Originally posted by CBB_Fan View Post

A bunch of words

llinois, UCLA, and Oregon are good match-ups that likely are overseeded.
Butler is a bad match-up (Evansville-esque), and
Notre Dame is very bad match-up.
Other teams may not be overseeded, but might be good matchups.

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