Projections

[ShockTalk]

Kinda funny the projections of 2 weeks ago had us losing 6 times and nobody was panicking then. We're about on par with that and some people are jumping off the deep end now.

Not funny at all. Prior to the Evansville loss, most of the projections were showing WSU to go 16-2/15-3 in the Valley or a total of 3-4 losses. Personally, I thought that 14-4 was closer to what would happen. After the Evansville loss, it changed to 15-3/14-4 and 4-5 total losses. Now, after 2 more losses, most are at 13-5 in the Valley and 6 total losses (12-6 might not be out of line).

RPIForecast's update does not have us at 25-5 as above, but 24-6. If these three losses had been part of the expected/projected losses, you would not have seen these changes. Most projections had us winning those games and losing some games yet to be played (roadies at IN St, Ill St, and/or CU).

What's not funny is the direction we have taken at a time our chemistry should have been getting better. I hope the Shocks prove these projections wrong and win the games they were projected to lose. Time will tell.

[rrshock]

Not funny at all. Prior to the Evansville loss, most of the projections were showing WSU to go 16-2/15-3 in the Valley or a total of 3-4 losses. Personally, I thought that 14-4 was closer to what would happen. After the Evansville loss, it changed to 15-3/14-4 and 4-5 total losses. Now, after 2 more losses, most are at 13-5 in the Valley and 6 total losses (12-6 might not be out of line).

RPIForecast's update does not have us at 25-5 as above, but 24-6. If these three losses had been part of the expected/projected losses, you would not have seen these changes. Most projections had us winning those games and losing some games yet to be played (roadies at IN St, Ill St, and/or CU).

What's not funny is the direction we have taken at a time our chemistry should have been getting better. I hope the Shocks prove these projections wrong and win the games they were projected to lose. Time will tell.

This is troubling.

I saw someone else post about the resemblance to 06/07. There are problems somewhere besides on the court. A team doesn't just fall apart like this without them.

[proshox]

This is troubling.

I saw someone else post about the resemblance to 06/07. There are problems somewhere besides on the court. A team doesn't just fall apart like this without them.

I do not believe we have a chemistry problem. The team has weaknesses and four straight teams have applied a variation of soft man or zone to slow our offense down. We have never shot a tremendous percentage from the three point stipe, but having so many additional bodies in the paint has prevented our second chance points. There is very little room for EO, CH, or CE to operate.

[rrshock]

I do not believe we have a chemistry problem. The team has weaknesses and four straight teams have applied a variation of soft man or zone to slow our offense down. We have never shot a tremendous percentage from the three point stipe, but having so many additional bodies in the paint has prevented our second chance points. There is very little room for EO, CH, or CE to operate.

That may be, plus if you can't hit threes, there is no reason to gaurd out there.

I know teams hit slides, but a slide like this does look just like it did that season. I hope it isn't right, but it worries me that it is. We should be a little more clear on this after the SIU game. Another game like they have been playing and the wondering will get to be more prevelant.

[Kung Wu]

This is kooky.

In 1980/81, the Shox were 19-2 before losing their third game at home to Tulsa -- as we lost to Indiana State (though Tulsa was double overtime, and we know how the Indiana State game played out). So they were 19-3.

Then they turned around traveled to New Mexico State and lost the very next game again, also by one possession (2 points). Putting the Shox at 19-4. And before you go thinking that New Mexico State was better then than UNI is now .. guess again. New Mexico State finished the season tied for 6th in the conference with a 7-9 record (10-17 overall!). Guess where UNI is currently sitting? 6th. With a 5-6 record in conference and (12-11 overall). So UNI is probably relatively better.

How crazy is that?

[GoShockers89]

Comparisons to 06-07 are silly. Few, if any, similarities to this team.

If we lose at SIU on Tuesday, a more apt comparison would be to the 04-05 squad which squandered a bid down the stretch. I am confident we will win and such discussion can be muted.

[SubGod22]

The troubling thing isn't our offense, which we knew had some issues, it's our D which has looked awful of late. It's our lack of energy and effort/hustle. We are not winning the 50/50 balls like we were in the past. And in many cases the past couple of weeks, we've gotten our asses handed to us in that department.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

The troubling thing isn't our offense, which we knew had some issues, it's our D which has looked awful of late. It's our lack of energy and effort/hustle. We are not winning the 50/50 balls like we were in the past. And in many cases the past couple of weeks, we've gotten our asses handed to us in that department.

This. We shot 40.4% at UNI, which was actually better than the home team. Our 3pt percent was very close to UNI's. We made all of our free throws. Carl had 20 and led all scorers. But our rebounding margin was only 3 and we only pulled down 5 offensive rebounds. We had 13 turnovers. Our problem in the UNI game wasn't getting the ball in hoop, it was keeping UNI from scoring and our lack of energy. That is troubling, but by no means not fixable.

[shockmonster]

No stats from me because they're beginning to make my head hurt. I'll just say that if we want to have a good offense, and have a chance to win at the end of the game, we need for Cleanthony not to foul out. He can score in bunches and without him, our margin of error goes down considerably. One of our other shooters has to get hot and this has rarely happened recently.

[ShockTalk]

This. We shot 40.4% at UNI, which was actually better than the home team. Our 3pt percent was very close to UNI's. We made all of our free throws. Carl had 20 and led all scorers. But our rebounding margin was only 3 and we only pulled down 5 offensive rebounds. We had 13 turnovers. Our problem in the UNI game wasn't getting the ball in hoop, it was keeping UNI from scoring and our lack of energy. That is troubling, but by no means not fixable.

I'm not disagreeing with the rest of your post, but over the last 4 games, averaging 60.5 ppg, for a squad as athletic as this, is a problem. Take the Bradley game out, and the average for the other three games is 56.3. The teams we've been playing are not VCU type D.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

I'm not disagreeing with the rest of your post, but over the last 4 games, averaging 60.5 ppg, for a squad as athletic as this, is a problem. Take the Bradley game out, and the average for the other three games is 56.3. The teams we've been playing are not VCU type D.

That's a good point and I won't disagree. The point I was failing to make is that our offense has been weak all year, so that's nothing new. But we've been able to compensate by out rebounding opponents by a hefty margin and out hustling our opponents. That hasn't been happening lately. Also, even when we have a game where our shooting percentage is decent (at UNI), we still lose because we're not rebounding and hustling. So is the problem really a lack of scoring offense?

[ShockTalk]

That's a good point and I won't disagree. The point I was failing to make is that our offense has been weak all year, so that's nothing new. But we've been able to compensate by out rebounding opponents by a hefty margin and out hustling our opponents. That hasn't been happening lately. Also, even when we have a game where our shooting percentage is decent (at UNI), we still lose because we're not rebounding and hustling. So is the problem really a lack of scoring offense?

I think we're really in agreement on all our points. However, let me also further explain. The hustling issue is most obvious on offense. Maybe, instead of the hard, hustling work on D helping our offense, it is starting to work in reverse. The slow down pace we're having to play of offense is hurting our D. Frankly, I don't believe it is the other teams' D that has slowed us down, but how we attack it. The loose balls....sometimes they just don't bounce in your favor. Whether you think we have either too many TOs or the TOs we have were unforced and silly, they happen while we're on offense.

Should a team have to out rebound their opponent by a "hefty margin" just to win? Are we that much worse in other areas of our game that "even up" in rebounding we should lose to UNI and IN St? Both of those teams had 7 blocks against us. 7. These were not athletic blocks of good shots. I mean Tuttle and Koch had all 7 of UNI's! W....T....F!!! They average 2 a game combined! In those 2 games, our 4 guards have been 8-30 (.267) inside the arc. They've shot better from 3 (9-29, .310) and get more points doing it. Also, bad decisions on offense can put you in an unfavorable position for the next defensive stand.

That decent shooting at UNI was below our average. To me, decent is not below average. If we'd shot our average, as bad as it might be, we'd have won.

[shockmonster]

That's a good point and I won't disagree. The point I was failing to make is that our offense has been weak all year, so that's nothing new. But we've been able to compensate by out rebounding opponents by a hefty margin and out hustling our opponents. That hasn't been happening lately. Also, even when we have a game where our shooting percentage is decent (at UNI), we still lose because we're not rebounding and hustling. So is the problem really a lack of scoring offense?

The only other factor in our early offensive success was that we often had easy bucket opportunities. Fast break easy buckets, Full court or 3/4 court press steals that ended in buckets, offensive rebounds and put backs, or Hall going one on one inside when we needed a bucket. The tempo (partly because we haven't made very many baskets and partly because of zone defenses against us) hasn't gone our way, teams have done a better job of breaking our press, we have been getting outrebounded or at least even with us on rebounds, and the zone defenses won't allow Hall to get the ball inside recently. Result has been fewer easy buckets.