Why we do NOT have a decent defense, yet:

[C0|dB|00ded]

Wichita State lost 5 seniors from a MVC Championship team. HCGM brought in even greater talent and we are a threat to win it all again. We are 9-1 and ranked in the top 25. CBB, you need to muzzle it up really quickly. Marshall knows what he's doing.




T




...:cool:

[Dan]

we were 9-1 at this point PJ's senior year and ranked #8, we all know how that season panned out. The question is, are we for real or have we been lucky up to this point? We've got some really good players on this team, but we also have offensive issues that i haven't seen in a long time. Baker is supposed to be money and he's not really showing it on the offensive end. Armstead, Cotton, Williams - disappointing 3 point shooting so far from all of them. Wessel has been a surprise but who knows how long he'll be out. Jake White is still stiff and slow and not really knocking down outside shots like we thought he would. Given all that, we have a bunch of guys that think they're 3 point shooters when they should be working in to Hall every single time down the court. I'm certainly glad we're 9-1 but I still see a huge mountain to climb to be in a position to compete for a title this year.

[Kung Wu]

Look at our true shooting % defense

Could you please provide a link to the formula and where you found a list of teams ranked by the notion of "true shooting % defense"?

[proshox]

No, fouling is never a strategy. Consider that the average basketball player can shoot free-throws at a 70% rate, but shoots 40% on mid-range jumpshots. Giving up a shooting foul on the drive is almost always worse than the mid-range jumpshot because that 70% shooter will make 2 shots 49% of the time and one 42% of the time. So the chance of getting a point from the jump-shot is 80% (40% * 2 points) while the odds of getting a point from the free-throw is 140% (.49% * 2 + .42 * 1). Essentially, what I'm saying is that free-throws are worth more points on average than jump-shots.

We are winning close games because a lot of the teams we've played have shot free-throws at 60% or lower. VCU and Airforce both have uncharacteristically bad free-throw shooting when we played them. Hoping your opponent plays worse than normal is not a strategy. We need to continue what we do well on defense (blocks, steals, limiting easy looks) but we cannot ruin those efforts by committing silly fouls (especially technicals). Unfortunately, we didn't do any of those things well against Tennessee (they shot much better than normal), and then we helped them by putting them on the line whenever they wanted.

I am starting to wonder about you. I said it is one of the trade-offs of the strategy.

Against Airforce coach did not want to let their shooters get hot from three. We overplayed shooters on purpose which left us exposed to back door passes and fouling. The strategy wasn't to foul, but that was a calculated trade-off.

Also, scoring stats in isolation are interesting, but leave out pace, opposition, and a myriad of other factors. I will take the 9-1 start combined with the fact that we have played in three true road games.... You can keep worrying about the fouling.

[tropicalshox]

Here's @CBB_Fan: complete guide on how to beat WSU which was posted on MVCFans. As suggested by a Creighton fan, back away from the ledge, your team is 9-1.


by CBB_Fan » December 13th, 2012, 9:49 pm

1. Penetrate: Wichita State overplays on the perimeter to try and force steals, but that simply forces fouls. Example: Trae Golden (25 points, 13-16 FTM-FTA)

2. Make your open shots: Wichita State plays "hard" on defense (hard meaning overly aggressive, with lots of fouls but few made baskets), so you need to make shots when you don't have a man on you. Shoot 50% against us, and you are halfway to winning the same. Example: Iowa first half (8-8 from 3PT line)

3. Shoot free-throws well: Wichita State is not good enough to play decent defense and not foul. If you are a good team, you'll be shooting from the line 30-40 times a game, easily enough to make up for missing a few shots. Example: Tennessee (29-36 FTA-FTM)


And that's it. You literally have to do nothing else to beat us right now. We have a one man offense (Carl Hall), and our defense depends on officials not calling fouls. If our opponents have an off shooting night, or miss from the free-throw line, we look like a good team. But a truly good team will beat us because we don't do enough things well to make up for the pretty horrible failings we have right now.CBB_Fan

[CBB_Fan]

Could you please provide a link to the formula and where you found a list of teams ranked by the notion of "true shooting % defense"?

True Shooting Percentage: Points / (2 * (FGA + .44 * FTA)). Also, here is where you can get a list (includes tons of other stats as well).

I am starting to wonder about you. I said it is one of the trade-offs of the strategy.

Against Airforce coach did not want to let their shooters get hot from three. We overplayed shooters on purpose which left us exposed to back door passes and fouling. The strategy wasn't to foul, but that was a calculated trade-off.

Also, scoring stats in isolation are interesting, but leave out pace, opposition, and a myriad of other factors. I will take the 9-1 start combined with the fact that we have played in three true road games.... You can keep worrying about the fouling.

I worry about fouling because it could have cost us in every close game so far. It isn't so much that it is an aberration but that it is the way we play. It does not matter how hard we play on defense if we give those points back, and that is what we do when we foul. We have to start playing defense without fouling, or it will continue to bite us. Do you think we can beat Creighton if we send Doug McDermott and the other good free-throw shooters to the line 30 times?

We may be 9-1, but we have major faults. It is not bad to admit that. We turn the ball over WAY too often. We shoot early 3s when we have few people on our team that can make them, essentially handing the ball to the other team. Last night, our offense was to throw the ball at the basket and let Carl Hall rebound it, and that simply won't work. And worst of all, we foul way too much. And we do these things consistently.

Also, in response to the quote I made in MVCFans:

Nothing in that is false. If a good team makes a decent percentage of the open looks we give them, and shoot free-throws well, we lose. We don't do enough to account for two things, and that is why Tennessee beat us.

[proshox]

CBB - answer these questions:

How many of Tennessee's foul shots were indicative of our normal playing style?

What impact did Tennessee's personnel and offensive talent have on the number of foul shots?

Are there relatively simple fixes to the "problem" which our players could easily grasp and apply?

[CBB_Fan]

CBB - answer these questions:

How many of Tennessee's foul shots were indicative of our normal playing style?

What impact did Tennessee's personnel and offensive talent have on the number of foul shots?

Are there relatively simple fixes to the "problem" which our players could easily grasp and apply?

1. Out of their 36 attempts, I'd say roughly 26-30 were from our normal playing style, with 6-10 coming from bad calls or end of the game shots.

2. Little to none. Tennessee is an offensively challenged team, so their offensive talent should not have done anything to our defense (it certainly didn't to Georgetown or UVA)

3. Yes. Our perimeter players need to sag off penetrators more and be smarter about trying to steal the ball in those situations. The reach-in on a player moving towards the basket is one of the easiest calls to make for an official because it involves a player with the ball in an open spot of the court. Scrum fouls are less likely to be called and are more often fouls that prevent a shot, so they are more acceptable, but we should NEVER let a penetrator get to the line 16 times simply because we made the same mistake repeatedly.

[proshox]

1. Out of their 36 attempts, I'd say roughly 26-30 were from our normal playing style, with 6-10 coming from bad calls or end of the game shots.

2. Little to none. Tennessee is an offensively challenged team, so their offensive talent should not have done anything to our defense (it certainly didn't to Georgetown or UVA)

3. Yes. Our perimeter players need to sag off penetrators more and be smarter about trying to steal the ball in those situations. The reach-in on a player moving towards the basket is one of the easiest calls to make for an official because it involves a player with the ball in an open spot of the court. Scrum fouls are less likely to be called and are more often fouls that prevent a shot, so they are more acceptable, but we should NEVER let a penetrator get to the line 16 times simply because we made the same mistake repeatedly.

1: your starting point for adjusting for "bad calls" should be 24 shots. Four shots resulted from technicals which will be a rare occurrence. Eight foul shots resulted from on purpose fouls to extend the number of possessions available to the shockers. Anything below 25 is acceptable against BCS schools when playing on the road.

2: after the game the Tennessee players stated that they came in with a game plan to drive and get fouled. Players with strength and size can generate points with this strategy. Tennessee had more than enough size to force it. When you practically refuse to shoot outside of the paint you are going to get fouled.

3: I mostly agree. I am willing to accept most of our fouls. I hate the really stupid stuff (see Wiggins foul in the first half). I think Marshall's teams have always taken a while to figure out how close to guard ball handlers. They often get too close early in the season, get beat a few times, "try harder" leading to more of the same. Clevin did it. Rags did it. Now MA is doing it. The problem is a little more pronounced this year due to the EO impact. I think this is an easy adjustment that comes with time.

Bottom line, minor adjustments will make them better, but we are not in trouble or beatable by most teams because of last night's fouling.

[another shocker]

rebounds. i'm concerned about the rebounds. what's the story there.

[CBB_Fan]

1: your starting point for adjusting for "bad calls" should be 24 shots. Four shots resulted from technicals which will be a rare occurrence. Eight foul shots resulted from on purpose fouls to extend the number of possessions available to the shockers. Anything below 25 is acceptable against BCS schools when playing on the road.

2: after the game the Tennessee players stated that they came in with a game plan to drive and get fouled. Players with strength and size can generate points with this strategy. Tennessee had more than enough size to force it. When you practically refuse to shoot outside of the paint you are going to get fouled.

3: I mostly agree. I am willing to accept most of our fouls. I hate the really stupid stuff (see Wiggins foul in the first half). I think Marshall's teams have always taken a while to figure out how close to guard ball handlers. They often get too close early in the season, get beat a few times, "try harder" leading to more of the same. Clevin did it. Rags did it. Now MA is doing it. The problem is a little more pronounced this year due to the EO impact. I think this is an easy adjustment that comes with time.

Bottom line, minor adjustments will make them better, but we are not in trouble or beatable by most teams because of last night's fouling.

I do see one good positive coming back: EO. This is one of the many ways he affects our team without having much statistical impact. Ignore the fact that he plays against Tennessee at all; he was still hampered by injury. When he is in, I think it helps our guards avoid fouling on the perimeter more than necessary, because the opposing team cannot drive around Orukpe. It lets our guards be more selective. It requires a little more experience, I think, but I think it will end up working out.

You make good points on size and driving. Lebron James has made a living on using his size to get fouls while driving. This is one of the reasons I like Early at SF, rather than the 3-guard set up Marshall really likes. Putting Armstead, Williams, and Baker/Wiggins in at the same time makes it very hard to guard large SGs and SFs, which leads to more fouls. We really miss Toure, because he was a solid defensive player that could guard those types of players. Again, Evan Wessel coming back should help this.

Note, however, I don't think we are easily beatable by most teams. Just good teams. In the MVC, we go 50% or worse playing that way against Creighton, Illinois State, and UNI, but probably win nearly every game against the rest of the conference.

[moshock]

Note, however, I don't think we are easily beatable by most teams. Just good teams. In the MVC, we go 50% or worse playing that way against Creighton, Illinois State, and UNI, but probably win nearly every game against the rest of the conference.

How do you think those teams would have done last nite against UT ?

[CBB_Fan]

rebounds. i'm concerned about the rebounds. what's the story there.

It is surprising that we got out-rebounded by Tennessee (Gregg Marshall teams very rarely get out-rebounded), but we dominated on the offensive board. Or should I say, Carl Hall dominated. He got more offensive rebounds than the entire Tennessee team, and we won that battle 14-6 but lost overall rebounding by 1.

[CBB_Fan]

How do you think those teams would have done last nite against UT ?

Since I wasn't impressed with UT (especially not with their earlier games in perspective), I'd say Creighton would win pretty easily (good match up for them), Illinois State would probably win, and UNI would blow a close game like they always do.

[Ta town]

Since I wasn't impressed with UT (especially not with their earlier games in perspective), I'd say Creighton would win pretty easily (good match up for them), Illinois State would probably win, and UNI would blow a close game like they always do.

yeah well...thats like your opinion man.

Seriously you have been pushing the same garbage for 24 hours now give it a rest.