2012-13 KenPoms Preseason Projections

[WuShock Reaper]

2012-13 KenPoms Preseason Projections: http://kenpom.com/

1st - Creighton (#30)
2nd - Wichita State (#46)
3rd - Northern Iowa (#48)
4th - Illinois State (#86)
5th - Evansville (#111)
6th - Missouri State (#123)
7th - Indiana State (#150)
8th - Drake (#204)
9th - Bradley (#234)
10th - Southern Illinois (#236)

[im4wsu]

2012-13 KenPoms Preseason Projections: http://kenpom.com/

1st - Creighton (#30)
2nd - Wichita State (#46)
3rd - Northern Iowa (#48)
4th - Illinois State (#86)
5th - Evansville (#111)
6th - Missouri State (#123)
7th - Indiana State (#150)
8th - Drake (#204)
9th - Bradley (#234)
10th - Southern Illinois (#236)

For comparison, he had us 9th in nation last year with rating of .9233; out current rating at #46 is .7989.

[CBB_Fan]

For comparison, he had us 9th in nation last year with rating of .9233; out current rating at #46 is .7989.

It should also be noted that the .9233 mark would be #6 (just behind Wisconsin) this year, but the .7989 would put us at exactly #46 last year. This tells us that KenPom is predicting a weaker top-end field but an equivalent middle. That just means that if we are as good as we were last year, we'll be even better versus the field, while a 25-50 ranking wouldn't really change much.

It should be noted that Ken Pomeroy's system is probably most flawed when it comes to predicting the production of new players. JuCos and players outside the top-100 are not evaluated for impact, which could be huge for both Wichita State and the Valley as a whole. For instance, he evaluated Fred Van Vleet, but no other freshman in the Valley or JuCo transfer (he did evaluate players like Malcolm Armstead.

I'd say he is pretty positive about Wichita State, but I think he also expects similar defensive numbers, which may not happen at the start of the season. Even without considering the JuCos, he thinks that Wichita State is above UNI and Illinois State, while keeping the same predictions for the rest of the Valley that we in most places. Furthermore, the distance between us and Creighton is considerably less than the distance between us and ISUR. His predictions for Creighton seem harsher than most expectations, but he considering a likely regression in McDermott's shooting percentage (towards the mean).

Considering the fact that:

He doesn't evaluate most of the new players on the roster
Wichita State will probably improve on defense by the end of the season
The top end is diluted compared to last year

I'd say these are very positive rankings.

[C0|dB|00ded]

This poll looks a bit more accurate if you consider what WSU brings to the table this year and not just "lost five starters from last year". A typical MVC team losing 5 starters would be screwed because typical Valley teams have cyclical success based on the perfect timing of experienced and skilled players. WSU has recruited more like a BCS team in that several of our players are high talents with physical advantages that will allow them to have success over smaller Valley opponents. The talent level on the floor in 2012-2013 is higher than what we had in 2011-2012. It's very similar to when Turdgeon brought in the Braeuer, Ogirri, and Couisnard line and they would many times do better than the starters. You just knew that Turdgeon's freshman crop were way better than what he previously had. That is our situation this year. We are bigger, faster, and more talented.


T


...:cool:

[WuShock Reaper]

Here are the average conference preseason rankings:

1. B10 – (Avg. 47)
2. Big East – (Avg. 49)
3. B12 – (Avg. 67)
4. ACC – (Avg. 79)
5. SEC – (Avg. 88)
6. MWC – (Avg. 89)
7. P12 – (Avg. 100)
8. A10 – (Avg. 104)
9. MVC – (Avg. 127)
10. CUSA – (Avg. 135)
11. WCC – (Avg. 138)
12. Ivy – (Avg. 175)
13. CAA – (Avg.178)
14. Horizon – (Avg. 179)
15. WAC – (Avg. 179)

[tropicalshox]

This is more favorable than somebody's ranking I saw yesterday. It had us ranked in the 120's.

[ShockerFever]

This is more favorable than somebody's ranking I saw yesterday. It had us ranked in the 120's.

Who's your source? Andy Katz?

[ShockTalk]

Here are the average conference preseason rankings:

1. B10 – (Avg. 47)
2. Big East – (Avg. 49)
3. B12 – (Avg. 67)
4. ACC – (Avg. 79)
5. SEC – (Avg. 88)
6. MWC – (Avg. 89)
7. P12 – (Avg. 100)
8. A10 – (Avg. 104)
9. MVC – (Avg. 127)
10. CUSA – (Avg. 135)
11. WCC – (Avg. 138)
12. Ivy – (Avg. 175)
13. CAA – (Avg.178)
14. Horizon – (Avg. 179)
15. WAC – (Avg. 179)

These numbers are a little scary to me. With the CAA, Horizon, and WAC taking some hard hits in loss of quality teams, there may now be a pretty clear line between the top 11 conferences and the middle group. The problem is that the Valley is very close to being at the bottom of that 11. Add to this the improvement of the A10, there is also separation of the top 8 from the other 3.

If these numbers were to hold up for the season, for the Valley to be on par with the A10, the next conference in front of them, our top 3 teams would need to improve 10 spots each, the middle four teams 20 spots each, and the bottom three 40 spots (#20, 36, 38, 66, 91, 103, 130, 164, 194, and 196). That's probably 3 teams Dancing, 6 in the top 100, with no teams below #200.

[Cdizzle]

Anyone including Pac27 in the top 15 conferences hasn't watched CBB in 4 years.

[im4wsu]

If you take the top 75% of the teams in each conference, here are the average for those teams for the top 12 (based on those rankings)
conferences:

1	B10	0.871
2	BE	0.819
3	B12	0.819
4	ACC	0.783
5	P12	0.78
6	MWC	0.763
7	SEC	0.76
8	A10	0.731
9	MVC	0.702
10	WCC	0.683
11	CUSA	0.643
12	CAA	0.601

[ShockTalk]

Of the top 11 conferences, only the Valley has 3 teams 200 or worse. Atl10, C-USA, and Pac12 have 2 (all have 12 or more teams), B10, ACC, and WCC have 1. Only the Atl10 and Pac12 have a team lower than BU and SIU.

[im4wsu]

From KenPom:

As I would do in previous seasons in the printed version of College Basketball Prospectus, I want to document a few of the perceived outliers in my preseason ratings for handy reference later in the season. This season, I’m including a breakdown of how much sleep I’ve recently lost over each team.

46. Wichita State: This is here more or less to showcase what happens when a team loses nearly all its key parts. The Shockers are assumed to drop, but not catastrophically. The MVC media picks them fourth and I’ve got them second, if barely so. They may be overrated by me but there are a bunch of unknowns with the Shockers this season.
Sleep lost: 30 minutes, because I just can’t live with myself if I don’t get the top of the MVC right.

[Kung Wu]

Interesting. He should work out a way to statistically calculate a coach's ability to rebuild and reload, based on prior success/failures, and use that as part of his preseason regime.