Historical Yearly Scoring Improvement for WSU Players

[SB Shock]

I have seen some pretty wild or optimistic prediction of what the returning players might contribute this year. So I went back and looked at the improvement of all 1,000 pt scorers in WSU history to see what is really likely. The first figure shows the population improvement from Frosh to Soph, Soph to Junior, and Junior to Senior. The freshman who had the greatest improvements came from those who hadn't played for WSU their frosh year. Historically this has been players like Warren Armstrong, Jamie Thompson, Ron Harris or Ron Heller.


Capture.JPG

Overall what this means is you can expect is this:

Soph Avg: +5.7 pts (normally +3 to +8 pt improvement) [Min -1.6, Max +16.7]
Junior Avg: +1.9 pts (normally 0 to +4 pt improvement) [Min -5.5, Max +11.5]
Senior Avg: 1.6 pts (normall 0 to +3 pt improvement) [Min -4.2, Max +7.6]

for this year players this actually translates to the following estimates. For each player, 3 estimates provided for this year, and "Avg" thereafter.

1. Avg - is what it says - average
2. (likely) - this is the likely range where they will fall
3. (wildly pessimistic/optimistic) - this is based either on the best (or worst) ever improvement. This is an outlying performance.

shown as

example:

Joe Blow:
Fr. Avg ppg (likely ppg) [Optmistic]
Soph. Avg ppg
Jr. Avg ppg
Sr. Avg ppg

Hall:
Sr. 10.0 ppg (8.7 to 11.3 ppg) [4.2 to 16 ppg]

Williams:
Sr. 7.1 ppg (5.8 to 8.4 ppg) [1.3 to 13 ppg]

Cotton
Soph. 8.6 ppg (6.4 to 10.8 ppg) [1.3 to 19.6 ppg]
Jr. 10.4 ppg
Sr. 12.0 ppg

White
Soph. 7.7 ppg (5.5 to 9.9 ppg) [0.4 to 18.7 ppg]
Jr. 9.5 ppg
Sr. 11.1 ppg

Wessel
Soph. 7.0 ppg (4.8 to 9.2 ppg) [0 to 18.0 ppg]
Jr. 8.8 ppg
Sr. 10.4 ppg

Orupke
Sr. 2.3 ppg (1.0 to 3.6 ppg) [0 to 8.3 ppg]

Armstead (based off of his Jr. year)
Sr. 11.9 ppg (10.6 to 13.2 ppg) [6.1 to 17.9 ppg]

[wufan]

Pretty cool chart! I think the numbers you have are probably fairly accurate predictors of what we might see. As for top 100 JUCOs in their second year (Hall), I believe they usually have a 25-40% improvement. That would put Hall in the 11-12 point range.

[forevershockerfan]

Mr. Hall could very well double both his bounds and points from last Season, just as Stutz did. He has put in the work and seems very focused. Thanks for the scoop SB.

[Kung Wu]

I have seen some pretty wild or optimistic prediction of what the returning players might contribute this year. So I went back and looked at the improvement of all 1,000 pt scorers in WSU history to see what is really likely. The first figure shows the population improvement from Frosh to Soph, Soph to Junior, and Junior to Senior. The freshman who had the greatest improvements came from those who hadn't played for WSU their frosh year. Historically this has been players like Warren Armstrong, Jamie Thompson, Ron Harris or ...

Very nice! Let's continue ...

Is there any way to extrapolate how many minutes per game thus represents? If so we can:

a) total the average score
b) total the minutes per game it represents

Which would tell us how many minutes are left for the others. If we can guesstimate how many points we expect out if the others given those minutes we will have calculated our average expected fire power each night. Then we can compare that with Creighton.

Thoughts?

[WSUwatcher]

Interesting chart, SB -- you're the chart king. And interesting theorizing, KW.

But what ultimately matters as much if not more to the most important stat of all, namely WSU's record next year, is harder to project, which is how well the returners and newcomers will perform DEFENSIVELY (and, of course, how that will translate into points for the Shocks' opponents). After all, you can average 70 a game one year and 80 the next -- but if you go from giving up 65 a game to giving up 80, your record will almost certainly take a big hit, even assuming the quality of your opposition remains about the same.

Bottom line: how a team's scoring output changes from one year to the next is interesting, and if all else remains equal, can even be pretty telling. But all else rarely remains equal.

[wufan]

I think this years team will be even better defensively than last years. Armstead will be better than Rags. We return DWill and Cotton and Hall. Our post defense should be better without Stutz than with him. Defensive depth is still in question, but Early has serious potential.

[Dan]

Ragland had one of the best single seasons by a point guard from wsu in 20 yrs. To think armstead will top that is quite the expectations.

[moshock]

Ragland had one of the best single seasons by a point guard from wsu in 20 yrs. To think armstead will top that is quite the expectations.

I totally agree with this from an offensive standpoint. JR was THE MAN. From what I hear - MA may be a better defender than JR but I will be pleasantly suprised if MA is as good or better offensively

[Kung Wu]

Ragland had one of the best single seasons by a point guard from wsu in 20 yrs. To think armstead will top that is quite the expectations.

I was gonna say the exact same thing.

[wufan]

Ragland had one of the best single seasons by a point guard from wsu in 20 yrs. To think armstead will top that is quite the expectations.

I fixed my reply…I was referring to defense only. I do not think that Armstead will have a better offensive season than Ragland, but he should be better defensively.

[SB Shock]

Very nice! Let's continue ...

Is there any way to extrapolate how many minutes per game thus represents? If so we can:

a) total the average score
b) total the minutes per game it represents

Which would tell us how many minutes are left for the others. If we can guesstimate how many points we expect out if the others given those minutes we will have calculated our average expected fire power each night. Then we can compare that with Creighton.

Thoughts?

You are correct that playing time can have a great effect on how those number are or aren't achieved. Playing time with all the players WSU has may be difficult to come by.

Those projections are not saying every (or any one of them) those players will achieve those estimates. It is just showing historically what has happened for those players who becamse 1,000 pt scorers in the program. It was extended down (rightly or wrongly) to DW, Orupke and Armstead just to try and give some perspective of what might be achievable than some of the wild estimate that some think might happen for these guys. I think it is safe to say that Orupke is most likely going to be just a role player and not emerge as a NBA candidate - and there is nothing wrong with that. Every good team needs their players to accept their roles.

So I could break those minutes out, but my gutt is saying it wouldn't be that meaningfull just because this data came from the stars of the program (e.g. 1,000 pt scorers) - they played meaningfull time most of their career. Now If I had a database of all historical players, I think it that might yield some interesting data. But I will take a look to see if anything pops out. I might be able to take a small subset that actually fits some of the roles present players were in.

[Capitol Shock II]

I remember when Joe Ragland first arrived and we had a substantial problem shutting down the drives to the basket. It took some time to address that issue. I seriously doubt that we'll have that problem this year and I feel sorry for any guard that tries to drive with eo hanging back. It just won't work.

That said, I hope that we have replaced our stock of makers because I'm not exactly sure where the offense is going to come from.

[pogo]

SB, you have way too much time on your hands young man.

[ky-mike]

I agree with the points per minutes comment. We should see increased minutes from several players.

Also, the total for returning players is in the low 50s. This leaves plenty of room for the incoming players to score (I am really hoping we see average scores in the 70s and not the 50s).

[Ricardo del Rio]

SB Shocker,

Be prepared to discuss your chart and analysis at lunch on Friday. Expect penetrating questions from JJ Clamdip, Isaso, Deer Hunter and me.