2022-23 Expectations for Shocker Basketball – “Summertime Edition”

[WuShock Reaper]

Hot Days, Cold Beer, and Hot TBT Hoops at the Roundhouse in July!!!


So what do we know today: we know who left (players/coaches); who stayed (players/coaches); who arrived (players/coaches); our AAC pairings have yet to be announced; and who our non-conference games will be against (still 1-2 to go) this season.

11 Non-Conference Games (perhaps 1-2 more)
18 Conference Games
1+ Conference Tournament Games
?+ Post Season Games

Here is how our "Summertime" projected wins versus actual wins have fared for the last few seasons:

Summertime	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21*	2021-22
Projected Wins	23.1	24.6	23.3	24.7
Actual Wins	22.0	23.0	22.5	15.0
Over/Under	+1.1	+1.6	+0.8	+9.7

*Covid shortened season and was estimated.

[WuShock Reaper]

I am going with 20 wins, with a slight bullish outlook from that point.

I see 10+ non-conference wins
I see 9+ conference wins, (I see WSU getting an easier schedule)
I see 1 AAC Conference Tournament win
I see 1 game in the post season somewhere.

That would get us in the range of 20-21 wins this season.

Go Shockers!!!

[WuDrWu]

I expect that the kids will play with passion. Beyond that, I have zero expectations.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Until shown something tangible to really believe in, 18 wins or less.

[AZ Shocker]

We got a lot of good looking players to be excited about...but I think the question will be "who" our coach will deem "who" shoots with under 3 seconds left on the shot-clock. Or for that matter "who" gets to shoot whenever they want to. That is the question....

[SubGod22]

I have no reason to have high expectations and voted accordingly. I like IB as a person, but last years coaching left a lot to be desired. Add in so many new faces and I don't see how that's a plus. We brought in some OK talent on paper, but I'm not overly whelmed by any one of them. A few could have some potential to take the next step, but I don't see anyone that is a definite game changer. Time will tell if at least one emerges. I'm not entirely sure the coaching is going to create that either.

I'd love to be wrong and see this team go on a tear, but if I'm trying to be honest and objective, I see no reason to believe that's going to happen at this point in the summer. At least we can trust our PG and if he stays healthy he will give us a fighting chance in most games, if the others do their part.

Even with the unimpressive non-conference schedule, I'm not sure I see more than 7, maybe 8 wins with what we know. It's hard to know for sure about the conference slate until it's released, but if I'm preparing for a weaker schedule where we double up on all the lesser teams, I'm still not sure I see more than 8 or 9 wins on the high side.

I'm sure we'll re-evaluate once everything is finalized, but as of now, I really don't see us getting more than 18

[shoxlax]

Anything over 17 wins would surprise me….pleasantly.

[ShockTalk]

I probably gave the Shocks too much credit and should have voted one more step down (18 or less). I'm banking on Porter NOT getting injured and NOT running out of gas. I see no half reliable backup at PG. Bell was not really a backup PG for Drexel, as his former team's PG played 35+ mpg while also leading the Dragons in scoring by over 4 ppg. No one else shows PG skills other than the walk-ons.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

I probably gave the Shocks too much credit and should have voted one more step down (18 or less). I'm banking on Porter NOT getting injured and NOT running out of gas. I see no half reliable backup at PG. Bell was not really a backup PG for Drexel, as his former team's PG played 35+ mpg while also leading the Dragons in scoring by over 4 ppg. No one else shows PG skills other than the walk-ons.

Fingers crossed the team adds a backup PG with its final scholarship.

[WuShock16]

I have zero idea as to what I should expect from this team. My eternal optimism (though last season took a big bite out of that) is hopeful, but we will see how it plays out. I don't think the team was as good as the record indicated in 2020-21 season nor was it as bad as last season's record indicated. I keep going back to Tad Boyle always saying that "there's a fine line between winning and losing." With the newer guys though, I just have no gauge on how the team will do.

As I have said before, the best thing for the program is 20+ wins with at least an NIT berth...or higher. The next best thing for the program is a sub-.500 record that would justify wholesale changes. A 17-18 win season (paired with 14-15 losses) going into Selection Sunday does nothing to inspire confidence in the future but is probably not quite bad enough to make a change, especially when financials get much more palatable for a potential change in the 2024 offseason.

I would say that I am more "curious" than "excited."

On the plus side though, my little guy should have the attention span to attend a couple more games this year (just did one with him last year and he lasted until halftime), so I am excited to do that with him.

[Dan]

Based on the interviews, everyone seems to think Jaron Pierre can really play. Probably the starting 2 guard at this point.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Based on the interviews, everyone seems to think Jaron Pierre can really play. Probably the starting 2 guard at this point.

I am getting a similar vibe. Have to imagine he and Colby Rogers (if he receives a waiver) will split a lot of the minutes at the 2. Not sure where that leaves Xavier Bell. Am I wrong to think Jaykwon Walton and Jalen Ricks will mostly play the 3? Hard to figure out a depth chart for this team beyond Craig Porter at the 1 and Kenny Pohto at the 4/5.

[ShockingButTrue]

If our point guard can elevate his play, compared to last year when he really struggled to get the ball in bounds, or run a capable fast break offense, to a level of all-conference, it's not unreasonable to expect 20 wins (give or take 2 victories). Porter has shown a few flashes of being that kind of performer, unfortunately, however, the opposite is also true, as stated.

After all, the Shocks have proven in the AAC (and the Valley before that) that when they have an all conference guard/s the results are more victories and top of the league finishes. Who would disagree with that? Those are just the facts.

[ShoxRoxMySox]

A small snippet from The Athletic, but it still provides a bit of sobering context. (https://theathletic.com/3390668/2022...portal-losers/)

"The major losses were Ricky Council IV (who transferred to Arkansas), Dexter Dennis (Texas A&M) and Morris Udeze (New Mexico). All three made our top transfer list. None of the seven transfers the Shockers brought in were on that list."

I want to be optimistic, and excited, but realistically on paper, this is likely to be rough.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

A small snippet from The Athletic, but it still provides a bit of sobering context. (https://theathletic.com/3390668/2022...portal-losers/)

"The major losses were Ricky Council IV (who transferred to Arkansas), Dexter Dennis (Texas A&M) and Morris Udeze (New Mexico). All three made our top transfer list. None of the seven transfers the Shockers brought in were on that list."

I want to be optimistic, and excited, but realistically on paper, this is likely to be rough.

Let me try to excite you a little with my sunshine pumper take:

- None of the departing players were highly-touted when they committed to WSU. No reason to look down on under-recruited players.
- Jaykwon Walton was one of the top ranked JUCO prospects this year.
- Four additions were recruited/offered by power conference teams (Jaron Pierre Jr., Jaykwon Walton, Gus Okafor, Quincy Ballard).
- Jalen Ricks was a top ~150 recruit who has a year of college development.