72% chance we lose 1st rd

[shox27]

according to some Harvard model

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577277432949196836.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_Sports_RightTopCarousel_1

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Make a computer model with a small sample size.
Test it one year against a really small sample size.
If it fails, don't publicize it.
If it succeeds, publicize it.

[ShockerPrez]

"Never tell me the odds!!"

-- Han Solo

[Jeffrey Korchek]

And Nate Silver says we have a 74% chance of WINNING the first game: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...h-madness.html

[SB Shock]

To create the model, Ezekowitz analyzed every opening game played since 2004 and found three common threads among teams that pull upsets: They consistently win the turnover battle; they rebound well and they play a strong schedule. Shooting mattered little.

Sounds like either somebody didn't understand the model results Or the model needs to be relooked at. Wsu played a tougher schedule and is a better rebounding team. Now you could argue how close the turnover game is between. The two teams - but 74% is fails a general sanity check.

[ShockerPrez]

There is a 100% chance I will have several adult beverages in me by tipoff.

[SB Shock]

Actually reading from the modeler blog he has warned that vcu result us a big outlier and may not do as well as predicted - nice waffling. Basically he saying "even though I predict them to win they might very well lose". :)

[Jwetzel]

He seems to weight the turnover margin high, which will heavily favour VCU.

[Ricardo del Rio]

If you want more detail on the methodology, go here:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...ing/#more-2959

Scroll down to the second topic.

[ShockerPhi]

So basically in the near future, a computer might predict the perfect bracket?

[SpanglerFan316]

according to some Harvard model

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...tTopCarousel_1

95% chance we fire Harvard.

[The Mad Hatter]

Or you could go with a source that predicts an enormous number of games and quantifies the results, like Raymond Cheong.

http://www.raymondcheong.com/rankings/perf12.html

I've posted this image before, but this is a chart ranking prediction systems for NCAA games. Cheong's system (which has us as 9 point winners over VCU) is the second best and Bayesian LRMC, which has us ranked as the #6 team in the nation is the best. In fact, since most of these were drawn from the Massey Comparison Ratings, I don't think there is a single one of these that doesn't predict a WSU victory (although winning percentage - the single worst predictor - is among the few where the two teams are closely ranked).

[ShockerPrez]

This makes me wanna go into the basement of the science building and start beating up nerds!

[SpanglerFan316]

This makes me wanna go into the basement of the science building and start beating up nerds!

They would probably beat you up if you tried. And that's just the female graduate students. :p :D

[SB Shock]

If you want more detail on the methodology, go here:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...ing/#more-2959

Scroll down to the second topic.

the model success rate is 42% 15-6 identified upsets, missed additional 15 upsets or 15 out 36.