WSU v. VCU simulation

[stepback]

Here's a cool sim site: http://www.whatifsports.com/ncaab/default.asp#top

I ran two simulations of the match-up.

You guys killed them 85-52 in the first. Shockers out-rebounded 'em 42-29, huge key to the game. Ragland led the way with 19 points (4 players were in double figures) and the team shot 45.5% from 3. VCU shot under 30% from the floor.



Second simulation was MUCH closer. Ben Smith led the way with 17 while Ragland was held to 10. For VCU Burgess and Daniels each had 17 as well.

A huge key to the game was WSU's aggressive style of play which eventually caused both Burgess and Brandenberg to foul out late in the game. Despite Ragland's off night, Shockers again shot very well from behind the arc, this time 10-16 (62.5%). The Shockers took their first lead late in the second half on a 15 footer by Smith and extended that lead to 70-61 with a little over a minute to play. This is where it gets interesting. Daniels buried FOUR straight 3s and Burgess hit another at the buzzer. However, thanks to some clutch free throw shooting in the final minute, Shockers hang on 77-76.

Thus in 2 simulations WSU goes 2-0. Try it out if you like, check the play-by-play box.

[ShockerFever]

That's really good, fun, and interesting stuff. Very detailed box scores. I love meaningless simulations. Probably why I still turn on the Xbox once in a while with some College Hoops 2K8.

I'm hoping this simulation knows what it's talking about..

[WuDrWu]

Interesting....I must be doing something wrong because I ran it 5 times and VCU wins every time and 4 of the 5 games were double digit losses. If memory serves me correctly, I think we have 2 double digit losses in the last 24 months...seems unlikely 80% of the outcomes would result in a 10+ point loss.

Oh well, I guess in about 65 hours we'll know for sure.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

We won by 1 pt in my simulation on a clutch shot by Toure. Would have been a tournament game for the ages, and nice payback

[1979Shocker]

Before you guys run your simulatiions, you better edit the Depth Chart. Otherwise, you'll have players playing out of position.

I looked at WSU's Depth Chart and it had Hall playing 9 minutes at SG, White playing 5 minutes at SG, and Kyles playing 7 minutes at center.

[1972Shocker]

Before you guys run your simulatiions, you better edit the Depth Chart. Otherwise, you'll have players playing out of position.

I looked at WSU's Depth Chart and it had Hall playing 9 minutes at SG, White playing 5 minutes at SG, and Kyles playing 7 minutes at center.

Ok, so were versatile.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

That's why we're so hard to beat. Anyone can play any position, we're very difficult to scout.

[SHOXAAC]

My sim just saw EO score 17 points, 3-5 from 3, 6 assists, 3 steals & 2 rebounds.

[1972Shocker]

My sim just saw EO score 17 points, 3-5 from 3, 6 assists, 3 steals & 2 rebounds.

Is that unrealistic? ;-)

[BOBB]

Is that unrealistic? ;-)

Yes. He should have 6 boards at least!

[SHOXAAC]

Is that unrealistic? ;-)

Not for the thread king.
:-)

[1979Shocker]

The simulations seem to favors the team you set as the Away Team on a Neutral Site. Since Notre Dame and Duke will probably play in the second round, I did some simulations for them.


With Notre Dame set as the Away Team. the simulations had Notre Dame winning 6 times and losing 0 times.

With Duke as the Away Team, the simulations had Duke winning 5 times and losing 1 time.

[SHOXAAC]

The simulations seem to favors the team you set as the Away Team on a Neutral Site. Since Notre Dame and Duke will probably play in the second round, I did some simulations for them.


With Notre Dame set as the Away Team. the simulations had Notre Dame winning 6 times and losing 0 times.

With Duke as the Away Team, the simulations had Duke winning 5 times and losing 1 time.

Sounds like you're on to a Harvard-like formula. :-)

[Cole59]

I did not adjust the depth chart and it had us beating vcu (with us as the home on a neutral site) twice both by atleast 17 pts, then it had us beating indiana (with us as the away on a neutral site) twice both by 10+, then for the fun of it i ran two simulations against kentucky (with us as the away on a neutral site) and we split losing by 4 in the first and winning by 14 in the second.. I guess we will see how it plays out in a little while..

[Cole59]

also just caught that obama picked vcu..