Tournament history...seeds 4 & 5

[billybud]

I looked at the tournament for the last ten years, feeling this was a healthy enough sample, particularly given how college basketball has evolved over the years. Some of what I found surprised me... so hopefully you find it interesting as well.

***LAST TEN YEARS***

4 SEEDS

Round 1: 31-9 (basically three out of four each year... two years of 4-0, one of 2-2... so bank on one round one upset by a 13 seed).

Advancing to the sweet 16: 13 teams. Frankly, this stunned me. 4 seeds are 13-18 in the second round the last ten years!! It's only a little better than 1 a year for a seed that is supposed to advance to the second weekend.

Advancing to the elite 8: 4 teams and only 1 since 2006 (Kentucky, last season). So these seeds rarely pick up more than two wins. But...

Advancing to the final 4: 3 teams (though again, only UK since '06). So when they get three wins, they often grab 4.

Advancing to the title game: nobody.


5 SEEDS

Round 1: 24-16. Ah, yes... the 'curse' of the 5-12 upset. This is an exceptionally susceptible seed line. But if you get by round 1....

Advancing to the sweet 16: 17 teams. So two out of every three 5 seeds who win their first game win another. And, if you look above... 5 seeds are more likely to escape the first weekend than 4 seeds!

Advancing to the elite 8: 5 teams. Running into a 1 seed to open the second weekend usually proves fatal. But this seed again fares ever so slightly better than the line above it (at least in quantity).

Advancing to the final 4: 4 teams. Maybe it is a first game of the weekend thing. Much like the higher survival rate from round one to round two... teams that make it past round three most often head to the final four! So much for a 'letdown' after taking down a 1 seed.

Advancing to the championship game: 2 teams, with a bit of a burp in the data. As many of us remember, 5 seeds Michigan State and Butler faced off in a 2010 national semifinal. So that guaranteed that one of those four 5 seeds would move on... but it also guaranteed one would lose. Both 5 seeds (Butler in '10 and Indiana in '02) would fall in the title game.

[DUShock]

What about 6 or 7?

[fansince80s]

I dont think you can go by history anymore with a 5 seed, Times changed starting last year with 12 seeds. The 12 seeds are now power conf last 4 in not unlike the 12 seeded teams as in the past.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I dont think you can go by history anymore with a 5 seed, Times changed starting last year with 12 seeds. The 12 seeds are now power conf last 4 in not unlike the 12 seeded teams as in the past.

Did I miss something? The quality of 12 seeds suddenly changed last year? 12 seeds are now suddenly only selected from power conferences?

[SB Shock]

They did expand the tournament to 68 which bad to have some effect.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

They did expand the tournament to 68 which bad to have some effect.

2 of the 4 expanded slots go to 16 seeds. The bubble only weakened by 2 spots. The quality of the average 12 seed (now that there are usually 6 instead of just 4) is virtually identical to what it was before the field was expanded.

Also, the part about "non-power conference" teams really threw me off. Where did that come from?

[MadaboutWu]

Excellent post @billybud:. Thanks for your work.

[KC Shox]

Any team seeded 12 or lower can beat anybody at any time. 13 and higher are gimme games. Regardless of what our seed is, I anticipate our opponent will be a tough out, especially if our team plays the way it did against ISU red. It's going to boil down to match-ups - can't wait for Selection Sunday.

[SB Shock]

2 of the 4 expanded slots go to 16 seeds. The bubble only weakened by 2 spots. The quality of the average 12 seed (now that there are usually 6 instead of just 4) is virtually identical to what it was before the field was expanded.

Also, the part about "non-power conference" teams really threw me off. Where did that come from?

Idk

[billybud]

What about 6 or 7?

6 SEEDS

Round 1: 25-15. The 'curse of the 5 seed' is so bad that the line below has a better first round record. But, though some may hope to be a 6 seed because of an 'easier path' than a 5 seed has, that doesn't seem to work out.

Advancing to the sweet 16: 10 teams. Only 40% of the 6 seeds that win game one win their next one. Still, this is one a year... which isn't awful for a seed line that isn't "supposed" to advance, but a BIG drop from how many 5 seeds advance.

Advancing to the elite 8: 3 teams. Uh-oh. So much for that "easier path" thing. 5 seeds win their sweet 16 games at a 29.4% clip... 6 seeds at 30%. It seems running into a 2 seed really isn't any better than matching up against a top seed.

Advancing to the final 4: Nobody.

7 SEEDS

Round 1: 22-18. Probably what you would guess out of a 7-10 match-up.

Advancing to the sweet 16: 7 teams. So roughly one out of three 7 seeds survive their match with a 2 seed. And we see that 7 seeds are half as likely as 5 seeds to advance to the second weekend. That's a pretty big disparity for two seed lines (at least the way I thought it would work).

Advancing to the elite 8: 3 teams. And none since '05. Silver lining? There's no real appreciable difference in making it to the elite 8 from seed lines 4 through 7.

Advancing to the final 4: Nobody.

[billybud]

***LAST THREE YEARS***

Then just for grins, I looked at just the last three years. It gives us some recent trends, but definitely suffers a bit because of small sample size.


4 seeds: 9-3 in round 1. 5 advance to the sweet 16... but that's where it stopped for everyone but Kentucky last year (final 4).

5 seeds: 7-5 in round 1 (is the curse getting worse??). Four advance to the sweet 16. Three advance to the elite 8. Two advance to the final 4. One advances to the title game (2010, see above).

6 seeds: 6-6 in round 1. Two advance to the sweet 16. One advances to the elite 8.

7 seeds: 5-7 in round 1. And that's it... no 7 seed has survived to advance to the Sweet 16 in the last three years.

[DUShock]

Wonderful work! Thank you for taking the time to compile and present the facts in such a clear and concise manner.

Go Shocks!

[im4wsu]

25 years 1-16 -- 100-0
2-15 -- 96-4
3-14 -- 85-15
4-13 -- 79-21
5-12 -- 66-34
6-11 -- 69-31
7-10 -- 62-38
8-9 -- 45-55

[shocker2012]

Lunardi has dropped us to a 5 from the 4 seed. Think we lost our placement in his bracket to Louisville...given their performance in the BE, not exactly surprising. Ive never expected to get a 4 seed though. Thought we were a 5 and CU is probably a 6. At least its only a little more than 24 hours to go before we actully find out where we stand

[Capitol Shock II]

Well I would rather play a 13 to start but how great is it to be discussing the merits of a four or five seed?