Bracketology 2/6

[shox1989]

Okay before Jamar tells me teams get bids not conferences, here are the 3 teams Lunardi has as IN right now from the lowly PAC 12:

Cal, record 18-6, rpi 48, 0-4 against the top 50, Best non-con win: #87 Weber State, Best overall win: #65 Arizona. Their worst losses: #165 Washington State, #122 Oregon State.

Washington, record 16-7, rpi 76, 0-4 agaisnt the top 50, Best non-win: #138 Georgia State, Best win overall- #83 Oregon

Arizona, record 16-8, rpi 65, 1-4 against the top 50 (they beat Cal #48), Best non-conference win: #84 New Mexico st. Best overall win: #48 Cal.

If WSU had any of those resumes we would NOT be in the dance right now.

[ShockerPrez]

Okay before Jamar tells me teams get bids not conferences, here are the 3 teams Lunardi has as IN right now from the lowly PAC 12:

Cal, record 18-6, rpi 48, 0-4 against the top 50, Best non-con win: #87 Weber State, Best overall win: #65 Arizona. Their worst losses: #165 Washington State, #122 Oregon State.

Washington, record 16-7, rpi 76, 0-4 agaisnt the top 50, Best non-win: #138 Georgia State, Best win overall- #83 Oregon

Arizona, record 16-8, rpi 65, 1-4 against the top 50 (they beat Cal #48), Best non-conference win: #84 New Mexico st. Best overall win: #48 Cal.

If WSU had any of those resumes we would NOT be in the dance right now.

That. Is. Brutal

[rrshock]

I'd have Colorado in over the last two. It should only get one unless the wrong team wins their tournament.

[shox1989]

I'd have Colorado in over the last two. It should only get one unless the wrong team wins their tournament.

I don't think they should get 2 even then. None of their teams has an at large worthy resume. I would love to see Colorado come on strong and win the rest of their games.

[rrshock]

But all of us on here know that common sense and logic go out the door when it comes to bracketology.

[WSUwatcher]

Okay before Jamar tells me teams get bids not conferences, here are the 3 teams Lunardi has as IN right now from the lowly PAC 12:

Cal, record 18-6, rpi 48, 0-4 against the top 50, Best non-con win: #87 Weber State, Best overall win: #65 Arizona. Their worst losses: #165 Washington State, #122 Oregon State.

Washington, record 16-7, rpi 76, 0-4 agaisnt the top 50, Best non-win: #138 Georgia State, Best win overall- #83 Oregon

Arizona, record 16-8, rpi 65, 1-4 against the top 50 (they beat Cal #48), Best non-conference win: #84 New Mexico st. Best overall win: #48 Cal.

If WSU had any of those resumes we would NOT be in the dance right now.

So, 1989, if you care what Lunardi thinks -- I don't, personally, and I don't believe he has a crystal ball or any influence, either -- why not ask him why he projects teams like Arizona and Washington to make it? Apparently he has a chat where people can ask him such things.

[Wu du Nord]

I just checked my forecast bracket, and I have penciled in selection Sunday for March 11th of this year.

Good times. ;-)

[Capitol Shock II]

We will never be allowed to have a seven seed even though we are as deserving as anyone at this point.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Okay before Jamar tells me teams get bids not conferences, here are the 3 teams Lunardi has as IN right now from the lowly PAC 12:

Cal, record 18-6, rpi 48, 0-4 against the top 50, Best non-con win: #87 Weber State, Best overall win: #65 Arizona. Their worst losses: #165 Washington State, #122 Oregon State.

Washington, record 16-7, rpi 76, 0-4 agaisnt the top 50, Best non-win: #138 Georgia State, Best win overall- #83 Oregon

Arizona, record 16-8, rpi 65, 1-4 against the top 50 (they beat Cal #48), Best non-conference win: #84 New Mexico st. Best overall win: #48 Cal.

If WSU had any of those resumes we would NOT be in the dance right now.

I just updated my blog. I have Cal last 8 in, Arizona and Washington first 8 out. There is NO WAY that all 3 make it this year.

FYI, as of right now the top 49 teams in the country will make the Big Dance. 19 teams will be "undeserving" but will make it through auto-bids.

[Kung Wu]

Forgetting projections, how do WSU and Creighton compare right now?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Wu, I'd say Creighton is definitely a step ahead of WSU.

Slightly better RPI
3 losses instead of 4
No losses outside top 100 (Drake currently sitting at 121)
Head to head win

Seeding wise, I would put Creighton's window around 3-8... WSU around 5-10

[Kung Wu]

Nice, how do the quality wins stack up?

[DwShock]

I think wsu should be a #1 seed but I'm a little biased

[ABC]

According to Realtime RPI:

WSU has one great win (UNLV #10) and three good wins (CU #73, UNI #51, Missouri State #81) and one bad loss, Drake #120. (Any 100+ loss is bad)

Tulsa sits at #108. If they continue to win, WSU victory could be a top 100 win. Also, Drake, Ill State and Indiana State all have a chance to become top 100 wins. (which works well for CU too as does Tulsa.) Nebraska sits at #109.

CU has two great wins, three good wins and no bad losses. Great wins are WSU #27 and SDSU #20. Good wins are Northwestern #37, UNI #51, and MSU #81.

CU's strength of schedule is 89 while WSU's is 71.

These are fairly close resumes but CU does have the advantage with the resume.

I think when you look at game statistics, the way KenPom does, WSU has the edge. I believe some of that comes into play too.

Ken Pom has WSU #16 and CU #25.

http://kenpom.com/

[WuDrWu]

Wu, I'd say Creighton is definitely a step ahead of WSU.

Slightly better RPI
3 losses instead of 4
No losses outside top 100 (Drake currently sitting at 121)
Head to head win

Seeding wise, I would put Creighton's window around 3-8... WSU around 5-10

JH4P, good stuff as always. I love the way you break down the bids into groups in a way that's easy to digest. I have 2 questions...on your current breakdown I didn't see Cincinnati listed; did I miss something or am I off base thinking they are in the discussion?

Secondly, do you see any way that WSU gets into the protected seed discussion if they run the table (highly unlikely, but not out of the question...they will be favored to win at least 7 of those games) in their last 9 possible regular season games?