Vegas Odds - WSU at Missouri State

[WuShock Reaper]

Betting Line:
College basketball odds makers opened the Bears as 5-point underdogs in this matchup and how has now moved to 5.5-point underdogs

Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game puts the Bears, most recently No. 61 in the Odds Shark power rankings, up against the Shockers, who rate No. 3 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and computer-based handicapping simulations run on this game predict a potential 83-73 victory for the Shockers.

How They Match Up:
Rebounding is always a key handicapping consideration and Shockers is ranked No. 32 in NCAA hoops at 38.6 per game. Contrast that with Missouri State’s No. 177 mark in the paint. When it comes to three-point shooting, Missouri State is the No. 184-ranked team in the country at 6.1 per game, while Wichita State rates No. 110 at 6.8 per game.
Comparing how these foes stack up statistically, Wichita State owns the country's No. 140-rated mark, allowing 68.9 points per game on the highway. Missouri State, on the other hand, rates No. 200 in scoring at home.


Betting Fun Facts

Wichita State Shockers Trends:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Indiana State are 6-4
After playing Drake are 5-5
After a loss are 9-1

Missouri State Bears Trends:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Drake are 8-2
After playing Northern Iowa are 3-7
After a win are 5-5

[Snapshot9]

I wouldn't count on Vegas odds at all. We were 8 point favorites on the Drake game, and look what happened. What would be more reliable is the fact that Creighton only won by 1 point in Springfield over the Bears. We better be ready for this one, it will be a battle.
And we have to be hitting some 3 pointers this game if we can't get the ball to Stutz or Hall.

[WuDrWu]

Lines don't mean ****. WSU's line is always inflated against the Valley for the most part, but that's not important.

Play defense and rebound and the rest will take care of itself. I could care less about the 3 falling. Play D and rebound.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I wouldn't count on Vegas odds at all. We were 8 point favorites on the Drake game, and look what happened. What would be more reliable is the fact that Creighton only won by 1 point in Springfield over the Bears. We better be ready for this one, it will be a battle.
And we have to be hitting some 3 pointers this game if we can't get the ball to Stutz or Hall.

no

[Shocktoberfest]

Agree with Doc. Sack up and win this one by playing like it means something. That means tough, in your face D and clearing the boards. And don't let Weems drop 30 on us!

[kochHead]

The line is decent at predicting a winner, but not margin of victory. I appreciate that WuShock Reaper takes the time to post all the info he does, plus the videos. He consistently offers solid info and does good research.

[Aargh]

Lines don't mean ****. WSU's line is always inflated against the Valley for the most part, but that's not important.

Play defense and rebound and the rest will take care of itself. I could care less about the 3 falling. Play D and rebound.

I've got to disagree about the 3's falling. If the 3's aren't there, the Bears just sag off the perimeter guys and dare them to chuck it up. That blocks passing lanes to the inside guys and clogs the middle if the ball does go inside. That's exactly how Drake played the second half and OT's. The Shox perimeter guys fall for it and tend to start shooting as soon as they see some space, regardless of the clock or whether they've tried to run some offense to get an inside shot.

With Patterson out, Stutz can kill the Bears. Lusk almost has to play to prevent passes inside, which generally opens up shots from 3. If those aren't falling, MSU will give the Shox 3's all night long - and the Shox tend to keep taking them.

[WuDrWu]

Lusk isn't going to play much zone. They are a man to man team. They'll double and sag, but I really don't think they'll play much zone.

That being said, while I understand we have to make some shots, our defense and rebounding, when up to par, is good enough to limit the other team, and create enough points to win the day, imho.

Play D and rebound and we'll be fine.

Edit: That makes it sound like I don't mind chucking 37 threes....I do. I am anticipating that shot selection won't be a problem...an assumption that may very well not be correct. It had better be correct. I suspect we will get the ball in good spots.

[GOSHOX1]

We come out focused and we win, easy as that. For both halves I might add!

[RoyalShock]

If their defense is proficient at denying entry passes and dribble penetration the halfcourt offense has only one choice - take the first good outside shot available. If the shots aren't falling the only hope is that your defense is creating turnovers and scoring in transition.

What I think MSU will do is start the game playing straight-up man-to-man with some double-teaming in the post. If Stutz/Hall are still getting the ball and scoring, then they'll try to sag and force us to shoot 3s. If we're at least hitting for 36% from beyond the arc, and forcing them to guard us, I like our chances.


In MVC road games here are our 3FG percentages:
BU - 43.8%
UE* - 36.4%
SIU - 42.1%
InSU - 50%
UNI* - 26.3%
DU* - 28%
* Road loss or very close.


This WSU team fares much better when shooting hitting over 40% from the arc. Anything less than 37% and it is a struggle. So bottom line, I do think we'll need at least servicable outside shooting to get a win.


Another factor in our favor, as Doc has stated, is our defense. In conference play MSU has attempted the 2nd-fewest number of FTs per game. Their opponents shoot a few more. Conversely, the Shocks shoot a few more per game than their opponents. So I don't expect the Bears draw fouls like Drake and Evansville (the top 2 in the Valley in FTAs). With this one at MSU, I'll say that FTs will probably be a wash.

[SubGod22]

How many 3 point attempts were made in those games? I know we've had a couple of games where we've shot 10 or less. If they're not falling, I hope we can do just that. There's no sense in shooting 20 if they're not falling or being forced.

[RoyalShock]

Against UE we only took 11 3FGs. But took 19 at UNI and 25 at DU.

In the wins against BU, SIU and InSU, the Shocks attempted 16, 19 and 20, respectively.

And one of the things I was pointing out is that if the defense is taking away the inside game and the dribble-drive, what choice do you have but try to hit some threes?

[RoyalShock]

In all four losses (UA, TU, CU, DU) WSU shot 35%, 20%, 19.2% and 28%.

In quality (blowouts omitted) wins the 3FG% was:

Non-con:
CU - 35%
CSF - 29%
UNLV - 52%
TU - 46%
USU - 44%

MVC:
@UE - 36%
@SIU - 42%
ISUr - 22% (close home win)
@ISUb - 50%
@UNI - 26% (close road win)
UE - 44%

Except for a couple of outliers, it looks like 35% 3FG is the over-under for WSU to get a win over a quality opponent.

[ShockerPhi]

Wow, the Vegas Odds were pretty much spot on.

[wusphlash]

5.5 favorites. Always bet on the Shocks.:smug: