WSU Plus/Minus Stats

[RoyalShock]

I'd have to watch the replay, but I think ISU changed their post defense assignments when Stutz was in without Hall. If so, the big +/- difference may have been due to matchups, and mostly because Hall drew a lot of attention. That would partially explain why his numbers were down.

[ShockTalk]

I see that 4 of our top 8 players (mpg) have improved Prouty ratings for MVC play, yet all 8 have lower +/- numbers. Of course, had we lost one more conference game, the Prouty improvements might not have been there. Is there anything to draw from this?

[im4wsu]

I see that 4 of our top 8 players (mpg) have improved Prouty ratings for MVC play, yet all 8 have lower +/- numbers. Of course, had we lost one more conference game, the Prouty improvements might not have been there. Is there anything to draw from this?

With the +/- numbers, you need to really be looking at the difference between the individual number and the team number. The winning margin for conference games is 9.2 compared to 14.1 for all games, so comparing Williams' 11.5 to 5.6, a drop of 5.9 in raw numbers, really is a change of only -1 because the team dropped by 4.9.

Can't do that with prouty because of the discussion earlier about the formulas used. To be fair, I think the fourth factor of the prouty should be eliminated altogether and use the first three parts divided by 3. In this case, however, the winning percentage for conference is .8 and thewinning percentage for all games is .8125, so that shouldn't alter things too much.

[1972Shocker]

I was looking over the +/- stats for the various combinations for the past 4 games to see if I could detect any obvious trends that might account for our difficulties in holding leads in those games.

I can't say I really found any such trends at the lineup level. But it did strike me that @im4wsu listed 17 different lineups in those 4 games. None was repeated in all 4 games and only 1 (Ragland-Williams-Murry-Smith & Stutz) was repeated in 3 of the 4 games. 5 lineups were used in two of the games. 11 of the lineup combinations appeared in only 1 of those 4 games.

Ragland-Williams-Murry-Hall-Stutz with a +51.5 in 11 minutes against SIU and a +70.6 in 10 minutes against ILS was the only lineup that had moe than 1 positive rating. This lineup wasn't used against CU or EU. There were 8 other lineups that had at least positive ratings in 1 of the 4 games.

There were 10 different lineups with negative +/- ratings over the four games. 4 of these lineups also had games with positive or breakeven ratings. Of the 10 different linups with negative ratings none of those 10 combos appeared in more than one game. 2 were vs CU, 3 vs EU, 2 vs SIU and 3 vs ILS.

Here are the times individual players appeared in lineups with positive (1st number) and negative (2nd number) +/- ratings:
Hall 8-6, Smith 8-6, Stutz 7-7, Ragland 7-7, Murry 6-6, Williams 6-7, Kyles 6-7, Cotton 2-1, Orupke 0-1, Anacreon 0-1, White 0-1

I am just not really seeing a trend of any kind. Perhaps the trend is that the lineup combinations have not been real consistent over those 4 games. Not sure if that could be a factor or not. Of course, foul trouble, opponents personnel and game situations can cause a lot of this.

The bottom line is that we have been very inconsistent over this stretch of games and it appears to be pretty much a team-wide phenomenon. Are the wide variety of lineups attributable to this inconsistency or is the inconsistency attributed to the wide variety of lineups or both or neither.

I believe I have just completed an exercise of futility. Whoopee!

[ShockTalk]

@1972Shocker:, your efforts, none the less, are appreciated.

[im4wsu]

Bradley Plus/Minus

Bradley playing their scrubs at the end really skews the WSU +/- statistics in favor of our 2nd-3rd teamers.

[im4wsu]

Indiana State Plus/Minus

Draw whatever conclusions you see fit.

[im4wsu]

UNI Plus/Minus

Stutz and Smith numbers are very surprising.

[im4wsu]

Southern Illinois Plus/Minus

The youngsters numbers look extraordinaryly good.

[im4wsu]

Evansville Plus/Minus

Kind of surprised at Ragland & Smith's +/- for the game.

[SubGod22]

I can't see the +/- here at work for some reason, but I was shocked that Rags had as good a prouty as he did last night. Considering he played very little due to stupid foul after stupid foul...

[im4wsu]

Drake Game posted late

These are posted late because goshockers.com did not post the box score until early this morning.

David Kyles having a .210 Prouty on 1-12 shooting seems high, relatively speaking, but it is correct -- see Prouty thread.

[im4wsu]

Missouri State Plus/Minus

The Drake game, Kyles had a .210 Prouty in a loss on 1-12 shooting, but played 32 minutes. Plus/minus per 40 was zero.
Mo State game, Kyles had a .094 Prouty in a win on 0-4 shooting, playing 15 minutes. Plus/minus per 40 is 16.0
These to me seem very disproportionate.

[im4wsu]

Indiana State Plus/Minus

Orupke played 6 seconds and ISU scored 3 points, so EO had a -1200.
Kyles, while not scoring, played effectively.

[ShockTalk]

@im4wsu:: You used your combination averages for the year as the Indiana St game combos as well.