NCAA Bracket Discussion Thread

[ShockerFever]

Rooting for Bradley went out the window with Wardle being such a richard.

His history shows he's been a richard long before he ever came to Bradley.

That coupled with the whole beat writer ban thing and I hope MSU buries them by 35, which is more likely to happen than not.

[WuShock Reaper]

Just some statistical observations:

Top 50 NET Teams:
84% (42 teams) made the NCAA Tournament
14% (7 teams) made the NIT Tournament
2% (1 team) Penn State did not make any post-season tournament

Top 50 RIP Teams:
92% (46 teams) made the NCAA Tournament
8% (4 teams) made the NIT Tournament

Top 50 Strength of Schedule (SOS) Teams:
31 out of 50 (62.0%) made the NCAA Tourney
10 out of 50 (20.0%) made the NIT Tourney
1 out of 50 (2.0%) made the CBI Tourney
0 out of 50 (0.0%) made the CIT Tourney
8 out of 50 (16.0%) had no post season

Top Total W/L Record Teams:
>90% wins; 4 out of 4 (100%) made the NCAA Tournament
>80% wins; 22 out of 23 (95.6%) made the NCAA Tournament (UNCG made the NIT as a 1 Seed)
>75% wins; 32 out of 37 (86.4%) made the NCAA Tournament (the other 5 all made the NIT)
>70% wins; 44 out of 59 (74.6%) made the NCAA Tournament (7 made the NIT, 2 the CBI, 3 in the CIT, 3 had no post-season)

Top Total Conference W/L Record Teams:
>90% wins; 6 out of 6 (100%) made the NCAA Tournament
>80% wins; 23 out of 32 (95.6%) made the NCAA Tournament (6 made the NIT, 3 had no post-season)
>75% wins; 30 out of 46 (65.2%) made the NCAA Tournament (8 made the NIT, 2 in the CBI, 1 in the CIT, 5 had no post-season)
>70% wins; 44 out of 65 (67.7%) made the NCAA Tournament (13 made the NIT, 3 in the CBI, 2 in the CIT, 8 had no post-season)

[ShockBand]

With all you statistical eggheads, what kind of "lookback" research has been done? As in looking at teams that perform well in the tournament (especially unexpected ones) and if there are any metrics that seem to have strong correlation to tournament performance above expectations.

[Kel Varnsen]

With all you statistical eggheads, what kind of "lookback" research has been done? As in looking at teams that perform well in the tournament (especially unexpected ones) and if there are any metrics that seem to have strong correlation to tournament performance above expectations.

There has never been a national champion that was not ranked in the top 20 of KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, so over-reliance on one aspect (WSU in '16 on defense, inept offensively somehow) is usually a negative sign.

Surprisingly, the AP poll is a decent predictor of tournament success. Ken Pomeroy wrote an article about that a while back.

The unpopular opinion is that there often is no formula and that the tournament is a random collection of games that make up a little more than 1% of the games played during the season. It makes up around 5-6% of the games that tournament teams have played during the season. VCU in 2011 finished 47th in AdjO and 78th in AdjD, even after the Final Four run.

My opinion is that there are certain qualitative factors that can help teams, such as:

Getting a high-caliber player back from injury (Baker in 2013).
Playing a style that most teams aren't used to with good personnel to do it (Syracuse's 2-3 zone).
Having good players that can break down defenses create their own shot (duh).

Of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

[AZ Shocker]

Good stuff!!! May I also add (or rather suggest) that the AP Poll is also a "popular" poll that indeed dictates seeding and where a team plays in March for "certain teams" success value. We'll never get away from TV metrics no matter how well we dissect it.

In other words...if there were more "real data" added to the criteria and were publicly "measured" (example - TV ratings, dollar amount generated from shoe companies, schools athletic budget, etc.)...we as college basketball fans would be able to ascertain a higher percentage of accuracy of who would win the National Championship. Or at the very least...the Final Four.

Problem is...with that knowledge...nobody would watch anymore. Except Yankees (Duke) and Patriot (Kentucky) fans of course.

[WstateU]

Poor TCU... Jason King hits the nail on the head.

https://twitter.com/jasonkingbr/status/1107851766157266944?s=21