2018 - 2019 RATINGS & RANKINGS

[WSUwatcher]

At least as far as Warren Nolan is concerned, the Shocks are doing something right. A couple of games ago he was showing their RPI at 65th but had then projected to go 6-12 in league play, 13-17 overall, and finish with an RPI rank of 184th. Now their current RPI rank has dropped to 81st but his projected final RPI ranking is 132nd, up over 50 spots, and he's showing WSU finishing at 8-10 in the league and 15-15 overall.

We'll see how it goes, but this team is starting to figure things out a bit more. So with Torres rounding into form more all the time, and Echenique doing a better job of asserting himself, I expect them to beat Nolan's current projections all the way around: RPI, league record, and overall.

[SB Shock]

At least as far as Warren Nolan is concerned, the Shocks are doing something right. A couple of games ago he was showing their RPI at 65th but had then projected to go 6-12 in league play, 13-17 overall, and finish with an RPI rank of 184th. Now their current RPI rank has dropped to 81st but his projected final RPI ranking is 132nd, up over 50 spots, and he's showing WSU finishing at 8-10 in the league and 15-15 overall.

As KenPom said on his podcast the other day - "why would even be looking at RPI. It dead".

WSU NET is 132

If they want to improve that, they need to win on the road. NCAA thinks WSU record is 4.5-4.

[WSUwatcher]

Interesting that KenPom has the Shocks ranked higher than the NCAA does -- what else is new?

Road wins will obviously be key, though, you're right; and that will also be a great test for the development of this team. No one has been better on the road in recent years than WSU, but how much of that legacy will this group be able to carry on?

[FadedCrown]

WSUwatcher KenPom is still using last year and preseason data, that is why. NET is brand new and only using real game results from this season.

[FadedCrown]

Winning on the road is key, and these next two games are great chances for that.

[ripemupshocks]

12/22/2018

	Overall Rank	NonCon SOS Rank	Season SOS Rank
NCAA NET Rankings	124
Live-RPI	*
Kenpom	110	119	125
Haslametrics	126	91	91
Realtime RPI TPR	61	49	49
Warren Nolan ELO	72	38	41
KPI Sports	79	108	108
ESPN BPI	128	117	117
Massey Ratings	85	56	56
Sagarin Ratings	109	130	130
Team Rankings	101	74	82
Donchess Ratings	111	43	43
LRMC Rankings	*
Barttorvik Rankings	95	52	59

* Have Not Started Posting 2018-19 Numbers.

[WuShock Reaper]

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/sos

Current Strength of Schedule as of 02/01/19

Wichita State	0.6039	9
Temple	0.5775	31
Tulsa	0.5661	41
Memphis	0.5652	43
Houston	0.5541	60
Cincinnati	0.5345	87
Connecticut	0.5332	90
UCF	0.5302	93
Tulane	0.5189	111
SMU	0.4938	177
South Florida	0.4896	184
East Carolina	0.4785	211

[Stickboy46]

Feb 3rd Team Sheet.

SOS 8
ALL Away games have been Q1 so far
1-8 in Q1 (Baylor win is Q1 now)
2-2 in Q2

4 Q4 games remaining for this team.

[FadedCrown]

Resume Prediction:

Record: 17-13 (10-8)

Wins: vs. Tulane (Q4), @ Tulsa (Q2), vs. Memphis (Q2), vs. Connecticut (Q3), vs. ECU (Q4), @ Tulane (Q4)

Losses: @ Cincinnati (Q1), @ SMU (Q2)

Q1: 0-8
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0

[Stickboy46]

Baylor and UCF could both end up Q1 wins

[FadedCrown]

Stickboy46 I am aware, I was just using current NET ranks for this.

[Shocktoberfest]

Totally unscientific way for me to look at our overall schedule, but hypothetically, being front loaded with tough games could have been the best thing for this young team. What if the schedule had been reversed? It is certainly conceivable that early in the year the Shox would stumble against even the worst teams in league, getting better along the way, but not good enough to overcome the tough schedule that awaited them at the end.

If this plays out as above, man, what a nice year for a bunch of newbies. @Tulsa would be the one game on there that I would probably count as an L. But who knows. The trend is definitely up.

[FadedCrown]

My theory for that was this. Home court advantage in CBB is about 4 points.

Beat SMU at home by 2.
Beat Tulsa at home by 11.

Lose to SMU by 6.
Win against Tulsa by 3.

[Stickboy46]

Resume Prediction:

Record: 17-13 (10-8)

Wins: vs. Tulane (Q4), @ Tulsa (Q2), vs. Memphis (Q2), vs. Connecticut (Q3), vs. ECU (Q4), @ Tulane (Q4)

Losses: @ Cincinnati (Q1), @ SMU (Q2)

Q1: 0-8
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0

Let's go extremely hypothetical here.

Record 18-12 (11-7)

Wins vs Tulane, @Tulsa, @SMU, Memphis, UCONN, ECU, @Tulane

Loss: @Cincinnati

Baylor and UCF make it to <30 (currently 32 and 42) and UCONN goes <75 (currently 78)

Q1: 2-9
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 7-0

I think that gets bubble conversation. Don't think that will happen, but sure is nice to be able to have that thought at this point in a down year (Thank you AAC)

[Woodrow]

Also, could win a couple of games in AAC tourney and lose in Championship game. 20-12

[FadedCrown]

Woodrow So you are saying if we go 20-12 you believe we are among the Top 36 in the country?

[Woodrow]

It's possible. Too many unknowns such as which 2 teams we beat in the AAC tourney and what other teams we are in competition with in the top 36 at that time.

[pie n eye]

I know there is a lot of season left and every game is still an adventure but let’s just say the best case scenario plays out, how realistic is an NIT bid? I’d put NIT thoughts to bed a while ago and was more realistically hoping for a CIT, or CBI but now we’ve got Sports Daily talking about a possible NIT bid if things break right.

I think any kind of post season would be a positive for this team. Outside of winning the American tourney, playing in the NIT seems like a dream scenario.

[SB Shock]

How is WSU going to do in their final 8 games? They are projected 3-5. That will not be good enough for NIT. Those 3 wins are Tulane x2, and Ecu.

Can they beat Cincy? Probably not
Can they beat Tulsa? Yes
can they beat Memphis at home? Yes
can they beat UConn at home? Yes
can they beat SMU on the road? Maybe, but tough

I would say they need to go 6-2 or 7-1 to get into the conversation and not be out in 1 in the AAC tournament.

[im4wsu]

I know there is a lot of season left and every game is still an adventure but let’s just say the best case scenario plays out, how realistic is an NIT bid? I’d put NIT thoughts to bed a while ago and was more realistically hoping for a CIT, or CBI but now we’ve got Sports Daily talking about a possible NIT bid if things break right.

I think any kind of post season would be a positive for this team. Outside of winning the American tourney, playing in the NIT seems like a dream scenario.

Any post season would at least give these youngsters additional practice sessions and a game or hopefully more. Every minute of experience is valuable.

[WuShock Reaper]

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/net

Last night's win against ECU had no impact on our NET Ranking, it stayed at #90. ECU lost one position from #253 to #254.

[FadedCrown]

Comparing quadrant games in the AAC vs MVC

American (play all teams twice):
Q1: 8 (33%)
Q2: 7 (29%)
Q3: 5 (21%)
Q4: 4 (17%)

MVC (play all teams twice):
Q1: 0 (0%)
Q2: 2 (10%)
Q3: 11 (55%)
Q4: 7 (35%)

Yeah, lol.

[Stickboy46]

Comparing quadrant games in the AAC vs MVC

American (play all teams twice):
Q1: 8 (33%)
Q2: 7 (29%)
Q3: 5 (21%)
Q4: 4 (17%)

MVC (play all teams twice):
Q1: 0 (0%)
Q2: 2 (10%)
Q3: 11 (55%)
Q4: 7 (35%)

Yeah, lol.

I'll add in one more.

Neutral Quadrants (for Conference Tourney Purposes)
AAC
Q1: 4 (33%)
Q2: 5 (42%)
Q3: 1 (8%)
Q4: 2 (16%)


MVC
Q1: 0 (0%)
Q2: 0 (0%)
Q3: 9 (90%)
Q4: 1 (10%)

75% Q1 or Q2 games vs 0%