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Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64+, the average number of upsets in the “first round” has averaged about 8 with highs in 2001 of 13, and 1989 with 12, and a low of three in 2000. How many do you predict this year?
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315 or less19.35%66 or 732.26%108 or 932.26%1010 or 1116.13%512 or more0%0The poll is expired.
Last edited by WuShock Reaper; March 18, 2018, 01:34 PM. -
I think there will only be about 4 upsets this. Here are my picks:
No. 10 Butler vs. No. 7 Arkansas
No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Rhode Island
No. 10 Texas vs. No. 7 Nevada
No. 12 New Mexico State vs. No. 5 Clemson
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This year seems so equal I think there will be a fair amount of upsets just because it is hard to compare a Texas vs Nevada. Some of these basically seem like a chance on which "team" shows up. And honestly, is a 10 over a 7 an upset??? More like a seeding situation than anything.Comment
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If New Mexico State, Charleston, and Penn win (and the Shockers too of course), I'll be a happy camper.78-65Comment
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A beat up KSU team will lose to Creighton. Creighton winning a game in the tourney has to be considered an upset.
At first I thought KSU had a first round bye by drawing Creighton. Then I remembered the injury situation at KSU.The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.Comment
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Hearing too many talking heads propping Loyola, which means Miami will destroy them."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Upsets by seed
#9 Kansas State beats #8 Creighton
#12 Davidson beats #5 Kentucky
#11 Loyola Chicago beats #6 Miami FL
#10 Providence beats #7 Texas A&M
#9 Alabama beats #8 Virginia Tech
#11 St. Bonaventure beats #6 Florida
#10 Butler beats #7 Arkansas
#9 N.C. State beats #8 Seton Hall
#12 New Mexico State beats #5 ClemsonComment
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"March Madness 2018: Using the Four Factors of Basketball Success to pick your NCAA bracket" - Sporting News
By Alex Novick
Published on Mar. 13, 2018
"Everyone looks for that little edge in picking their NCAA Tournament bracket. Here's a new angle, which yields some interesting results.
A common thought process in basketball analytics identifies four key elements which correlate most closely with winning games. Former Sacramento Kings Director of Analytics Dean Oliver coined these the Four Factors of Basketball Success — shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throw proficiency.
Each of these factors hold varying weights, and we can apply them to determine a team’s likelihood of success, in this case within the NCAA Tournament. Using a model that measures these factors — eight total stats when accounting for both a team’s offense and defense — we’ve unofficially created a "Four Factors Score" and an adjusted ranking for each team in the Field of 68 to help pick the bracket. You can scroll down to Key Takeaways for some bracket tips and the full rankings, or continue reading for a nerdy explanation of how this system works.,,
#1 - Cincinnati - their model predicts the will win the National Championship.
#10 - Houston - to the 2nd round
#11 - Wichita State - they predict WSU to the Sweet 16
#12 - Villanova - beats WSU
#82 - West Virginia - loses to Murray State
#96 - Marshall - lose to WSU
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First Day (Thursday) upsets:
#13 Buffalo over #4 Arizona
#11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami
#9 Alabama over #8 Virginia Tech
First Day (Thursday) upsets:
#16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
#13 Marshall over #4 Wichita State
#11 Syracuse over #6 TCU
#10 Butler over #7 Arkansas
#9 Kansas State over #8 Creighton
#9 Florida State over #8 Missouri
Last edited by WuShock Reaper; March 18, 2018, 01:33 PM.Comment
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