So you're telling me there's a chance...

[kochHead]

A quick analytical breakdown of the tournament from our perspective (per KenPom):

1) We have a good first round match-up as Marshall's KenPom seed would be 15; However our likely second round opponent (WV) was under seeded at a 5 (-2), and will likely be favored against us.
2) Our adjusted D puts us well outside of the "window" or "profile" of recent National Championship teams. We are on the wrong side of the Mendoza line (95) in terms of D required to win a championship.
3) Our path to a Sweet 16 is difficult due to our second round game, however WV's advantage is statistically very small (45%/55% or 1pt); Once into the round of 16 the odds shift significantly against us
4) Odds of winning it all = 3.7%

So, i'm telling you there's a chance!

[FlyingWheat]

Vegas says 1:45, 538 says 1%. I like where you’re getting your numbers from.

[kochHead]

Sorry about the terrible resolution of these. The KenPom site shows a 45% of beating WV, a 24% chance of beating Villanova, a 34% chance of beating Purdue, a 28% chance of beating Duke, and a 26% chance of beating Virginia. Not that any of this means anything.

Sources:

https://gamepredict.us/kenpom

https://gamepredict.us/bracket

https://gamepredict.us/bracketology

[Shocktoberfest]

It's all about getting on a run. It would be interesting to look at our odds similarly in 2013. Surely that path looked like crap.

[WstateU]

[CBB_Fan]

While our defensive is quite mediocre by the metrics, there is light at the end of the tunnel. If we look at the blueprint for an NCAA champion, it comes down to more than a KenPom score in the top 20 for both offense and defense. Here is what that blueprint tells us:

OFFENSE

Shoot above 37% from the 3PT line (38.5%)
Have a frontcourt scorer averaging more than 12 PPG (Shaquille Morris, 14.0)
Have four or more players that average 10 or more (Landry 15.0, Shaq 14.0, Darral 10.4, Conner 10.1)
Be in top 50 in offensive rebound percentage, percentage having gone done as more teams shoot 3s (10th)

DEFENSE

Hold opponents to less than 47% from inside the paint (45.8%)
Don't let opponents shoot more than 31 FTs for every 100 FGs (33.1%)

OTHERS

Be a conference champ (second in AAC) or win the tournament (didn't)
Have a coach that has been to a Sweet 16 (Marshall)
Be a top 25 KenPom team on Selection Sunday (20th)
Be a 4 seed or better (4 seed)
Have a KenPom ORtg in the top 25 (4)
Have a KenPom DRtg in the top 25 (error does not compute)

CONCLUSION

The point is, we hit 9 out of 12 categories. The same as Virginia, the same as Villanova, the same as Kansas, and 3 more than Xavier. There are only 6 teams that hit more categories than we did: Michigan State (12), Gonzaga (12), Duke (11), UNC (10), Purdue (10), and Cincinnati (10).

Send opponents to the FT line 2.2% less and pretend like we scored our last bucket against Cincinnati, and we are as likely to end up the overall champions as any team but Gonzaga or Michigan State. And notice, even without that we are equal or better than the one seeds. As we've seen this year, the top ranked teams are vulnerable, and we may or even probably will see a championship game without a 1 seed participating.

[kochHead]

Great assessment! My question would be, of the 12 categories, are there certain categories that must be present, or better put, have been historically present for all recent Championship teams? My contention, or implied contention above, is that D falls into that category. As a Shocker fan, it would be nice to be proven wrong on this point for obvious reasons.

[CBB_Fan]

Unfortunately for us, the two biggest "never wrong" stats are a KenPom score in the top 25 on Selection Sunday, and a defense in the top 40. Every champion since KenPom started has had both the overall rating and the defense. Other metrics are usually missing a year (specifically, 2014 UConn).

[kochHead]

Ok, so were screwed after all. Let's go outliers!

[kochHead]

I can't say for sure in 2013, but a quick look at our AdjD tells me that according to KenPom our chances were probably better. We were 20th in AdjD in 2013 (currently we are 107th). When you look at the scatter plot of AdjD v AdjO and former NCs, you are MUCH better off having a solid defense and a mediocre offence. Mediocre offenses can get hot, not so much the case with defense. If we won a NC this year, we would be the poster child for outliers.

[CBB_Fan]

I can't say for sure in 2013, but a quick look at our AdjD tells me that according to KenPom our chances were probably better. We were 20th in AdjD in 2013 (currently we are 107th). When you look at the scatter plot of AdjD v AdjO and former NCs, you are MUCH better off having a solid defense and a mediocre offence. Mediocre offenses can get hot, not so much the case with defense. If we won a NC this year, we would be the poster child for outliers.

Here's the breakdown for 2013:

OFFENSE

Shoot above 37% from the 3PT line (33.9%)
Have a frontcourt scorer averaging more than 12 PPG (Cleanthony Early, 13.9)
Have four or more players that average 10 or more (Early 13.9, Hall 12.5, Armstead 10.7)
Be in top 50 in offensive rebound percentage, percentage having gone done as more teams shoot 3s (18th)

DEFENSE

Hold opponents to less than 47% from inside the paint (43.6%)
Don't let opponents shoot more than 31 FTs for every 100 FGs (38.3%)

OTHERS

Be a conference champ (second in MVC) or win the tournament (didn't)
Have a coach that has been to a Sweet 16 (Marshall had never been)
Be a top 25 KenPom team on Selection Sunday (I seem to recall we were 27th)
Be a 4 seed or better (9 seed)
Have a KenPom ORtg in the top 25 (ended at 35)
Have a KenPom DRtg in the top 25 (possibly was under 25)

So that team was more an Cinderella than this one, only hitting 4 of the 12 criteria. They relied more on a underdog track, which revolves around lowering possessions and making the most of them with hot shooting (and perhaps a little unknown weapon in Baker). That said, there's always 2014 UConn to show it is possible to defy whatever criteria you'd think a champion would need hit.

[El_Wu]

Heck i already did my bracket and guess who's winning the whole enchilada, Cali style. That's right Shockers baby.

[kochHead]

Thanks, you just triggered a realization that I was looking at the post tournament KenPom figures and thus it's not an apples to apples comparison on my part. So yes, I would buy the fact that 2013 was a more difficult and statistically improbable path, vs if we were to make the FF this year. It's still hard to make the case we are a 2018 NC contender with our defensive struggles, even with the 9 of 12 factors in our favor, but I do feel a bit more optimistic now, so there is that! Nice analysis btw.

[60Shock]

My philosophy in life has always been to never interfere or downplay a man's dream, no matter how slim I may think the chances may be.

All of us are entitled to dream what may appear to some as,The Impossible Dream.

But, just think how dull and dreadful life would be without our Dreams and our Dreamers.

One of my dreams has always been to see WSU win a National Basketball Championship, and I have been waiting and dreaming for this to happen since the first day Cleo Littleton put on a Shocker uniform.

I may, or may not live to see it ever happen, but it is a dream I can not give up, no matter what the odds.