Top 10 returning guards to the Valley next season

[electricmayhem]

Good filler for the offseason... anyone rank this differently?

http://www.examiner.com/missouri-valley-basketball-in-national/top-10-returning-guards-special-mentions

[wufan]

Solid list. My opininion would be:

Latham might be too high. He might be better suited for 9th or 10th.

James at UNI is very good, but I'm kinda unsure. He seemed a little high, but I'm not sure who I put in front of him.

Odum is VERY good, but not the best just yet. My top three:

Young
Odum
Ryan (it pains me to put Ryan here, and I might even throw Rice in front of him). Can't argue with his numbers though.

After those four it tightens up quite a bit and alot of my rankings would simply be based on the 2 or 3 games I watched them last year.

As always, well researched write-up!

[SpanglerFan316]

The intent of the list is a bit unclear. It might be either of the following:
1. (Performance in 2010-11) Rank the returning guards based on their performance in 2010-11.
2. (Potential in 2011-12) Rank the returning guards based on their likely impact in 2011-12.

Using criterion 1, I would not quibble too much with the list. I might put Colt Ryan and a few others a bit lower. In my opinion, you need to look more at how the player's team did and less at a player's stats because each team has a system and the player has to play in that system. (For example, one's team (e.g. ball movement, screens) help determine if one is taking fairly open shots or tough, contested shots and this can affect one's shooting percentages.) On that basis, Odum is fine at #1 but Murry and Ragland could be a little higher.

Using criterion 2, I would change the rankings. For example, it usually takes at least half of a season for a good JUCO player to get up to speed and really make contributions. On that basis and given WSU's run to the NIT title, I think Ragland has to be higher. Also, on the terrible teams (e.g. Bradley, Drake, SIU, ISU-red, Evansville, etc.), somebody has to score; that is , every team will score points and an "average" player on a poor team (who may not even start for a good team) might be that guy. Thus Rice, Ryan, Simms-Edwards, Wilkins, Holmes, etc. would be tending down in my book.

Also, looking at freshmen and projecting their sophomore seasons based on their frosh seasons is usually a bad idea (e.g. Toure Murry.) For example, I think teams are going to "figure out" Odum and he is going to be less effective in 2011-12. On this basis, Rice, Odum, Manigat, etc. tend down in my book.

Finally, I think you have to look at seniors who have shown (substantial) flashes of outstanding play and who have special skills (athletic ability, precision, etc.); people like past player Blake Ahearn (precision) and current player David Kyles. I think they (excluding former players, of course) tend up in the ranking.

Here is my Top Ten list, based on criterion 2

• 1. Antoine Young
  2. Joe Ragland
  3. Jake Odum
  4. Toure Murry
  5. Rayvonte Rice
  6. David Kyles
  7. Johnny Moran
  8. Colt Ryan
  9. Anthony James
  10. Dyricus Simms-Edwards

OK, I'm not entirely happy with this list but I guess this could be a starting point for discussion. UNI pretty much dropped off the face of the earth after O'Rear went down; ranking UNI guards highly offends my sense of "how did you help your team" but I think Moran will offer UNI a steady, calming influence while I don't expect as much from James.

Kyles looked really good at the start of the season; I expect to see a lot more of that in 2011-12. I think Gregg Marshall quits messing with Murry's role and Toure has a great senior season. I expect Rags to be the leader of the season and MVC tourney champs in 2011-12.

It pains me to list a Creighton player #1 but there you have it. I think Young, Murry and Kyles come out with chips on their shoulders based on the last Oregon game (for Young) and the MVC season & tourney for Kyles & Murry.

I expect Odum and Rice to continue to be good. I am really up in the air concerning Colt Ryan. I think Simms-Edwards has talent but on a bad team with a new coach, who knows? I don't think Dwayne Lathan makes his team better and left him off the list. Manigat might sneak up and bit the MVC; who knows?

[pinstripers]

Edwards left.

[wufan]

8 is really low for Ryan, and I thing he's crap! His numbers are just so freaking good that it makes me bump him into the top 5. He's done if for three years now and I expect him to be slightly better next year. Odum and Rice will be good. They might slide slightly statistically, or maybe not, but both are top 5ish.

I'm a big Ragland fan, but unless he shoots like Clevin and like he did in JUCO, there is no way that he is the second best guard in the MVC. IF Rags shoots 40-45% from three and 45% from the field and 85% from FT...and he has a 2.5:1 A:T ratio, then maybe he is one of the top 5 guards. He's a distant third as far as PGs go right now.

Kyles has been streaky for three years. No reason to think that as a senior he will suddenly be consistent, although I hope he is, and if so, then yeah he's All-MVC caliber!!!

Murry has plateaued offensively. Still rebounds, passes, plays D, but he will need to shoot it better next year if he is going to have a memorable senior season.

James and Manigat looked really good late last season. Manigat is probably still a year away with the two bigs and Young stealing his numbers.

[forevershockerfan]

It is hard to say individually as to where to rank this group of Valley guards. However, collectively, I think the Shockers committee of guards is #1.

[SpanglerFan316]

Edwards left.

OK. Then

• 10. G. Stutz, point guard

:whistle: ;-)

[ShockTalk]

Edwards left.

Simms-Edwards stayed.

http://www.pjstar.com/news/x675823528/Simms-Edwards-to-stay-at-Bradley?photo=0

[electricmayhem]

To answer Spangler, it's a combo of both. I like Rags, but I'll be interested to see his production over a full season as a starter. Odum's defense gives him the top spot.

Great feedback...

[Speed]

If a guard is to be ranked for the 11-12 season on potential, I have no idea how Kyles is ranked anything but 1st. That guy can be electric on any given play. A little consistency can make that guy Valley POY.

[forevershockerfan]

DK was awesome in the Tulsa game. Look for TM and DK to both start many of our games at the 2 and 3 and play significant minutes.

[electricmayhem]

I agree that DK is good, but #1 is a stretch IMO. He lost his starting job late last year and didn't look good the rest of the way, save for a few bright moments. DK should be a starter, but I don't think he is consistent enough or strong in any skill other than scoring.

I expect WSU to have the top backcourt in the league next season...

[forevershockerfan]

2 Seasons ago without DK due to injury late in the Season really hurt us. DK also plays the D and is quite the athlete. I hope this will be a great Season for him. Stranger things have happened.

[WSUwatcher]

Wow!

Great avatar, mayhem. If we were ranking posters the way you do players, you'd have to move up on the strength of that alone.

[notquiteBWing]

nice list.
I don't know enough about any of the other teams players to make much an an argument either way.

But i'm gonna throw out my two cents for the heck of it.

I think Odum is the freakin man. I love his game. I think he's the best guard in the MVC.

I like watching him play. A lot.

So I got Lanky Jake Odum #1

But like a few others have posted, I've got our boy Ragland at #2.

I'm biased. But I think he's the second best guard.
Even if his 3 point shooting still sucks this year, I think he'll be the 2nd best guard in the MVC.

Contrary to what you said about Murry, Joe will be the senior leader next year despite having played here 2 less years than Toure. The 2011-2012 Shockers will be Joe's team. Along with Stutz. They are voices.

Joe's numbers may not be All-MVC numbers. Just because D-Will is one of if not the best backup PG in the MVC and he deserves his time.

Joe's change of speed, fearlessness, offensive knowledge, and superior passing ability makes him the 2nd best guard in the MVC behind Odum IMO.