Vegas line

[wuhog]

Vegas has Shox 15:1 to win it all.

[ShoxRoxMySox]

I’m not familiar with odds, but that puts us at about a 6% probability of winning right? That feels low, what are the other teams’ odds?

[bighouse]

Duke 5/1
Michigan St 11/2
Arizona 8/1
UK 10/1
UNC 12/1
At team that shall remain nameless 14/1
WICHITA STATE UNIVERSITY 15/1

[Shocktoberfest]

15/1 sounds about right really. I hope those inclined to wager their hard earned bucks put some jack on the Shox earlier in the year.

[ShoxRoxMySox]

Hahah! Was thinking win it all as “Maui”. Time for me to knock off the rust and get in regular season shape here.

[wuhog]

Hahah! Was thinking win it all as “Maui”. Time for me to knock off the rust and get in regular season shape here.

I checked on betting line for Maui. Was told there isn’t one.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I’m not familiar with odds, but that puts us at about a 6% probability of winning right? That feels low, what are the other teams’ odds?

Let's assume Final 4 games are always 50/50 matchups. I know that isn't perfectly true, but it greatly simplifies things to help get a general feel of odds.

If the Shox reach the Final 4, they then have a 25% chance to win it all. I'm OK saying this team could play a 100 simulation seasons and participate in the Final Four 25 times. Basically, 1 in 4 of making it there, 1 in 4 of winning it all if they do make it there.

Sounds about right to me.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

A more detailed example:

2 seed WSU could theoretically be
99% favorite vs 15 seed
90% favorite vs 7 seed
60% favorite vs 3 seed
47% chance vs 1 seed

That's 1 in 4 odds of reaching the Final Four.