Interesting Observation on AAC vs MVC

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I was curious, so I went back and looked at KenPom's rankings of the MVC over the years and compared it to this year's AAC.

2007 MVC . +11.99 ... #7 (2 bids)
2006 MVC ... +9.41 ... #7 (4 bids)
2018 AAC +8.81 #7 (? bids)
2005 MVC ... +7.96 ... #7 (3 bids)
2008 MVC ... +7.82 ... #7
2013 MVC ... +7.72 ... #9 (2 bids)
2010 MVC ... +6.42 ... #9
2012 MVC ... +6.07 ... #9 (2 bids)
2004 MVC ... +3.96 ... #11 (2 bids)
2009 MVC ... +3.87 ... #10
2018 MVC +2.73 #10 (? bids)
2011 MVC ... +2.54 ... #12
2017 MVC ... +2.08 ... #10
2015 MVC ... +2.04 ... #12 (2 bids)
2016 MVC ... +1.59 ... #11 (2 bids)
2014 MVC ... +1.29 ... #11
2003 MVC ... +1.07 ... #15 (2 bids)
2002 MVC ... +0.51 ... #13 (2 bids)

Obviously, the season is still extremely young. One thing that surprises me is just how highly ranked the 2018 MVC is even without WSU. It's not because they have any new super teams, but there don't seem to be many terrible teams this year.

Also, man, that 2007 MVC! All 10 teams in the top 140. 8 teams in the top 86!

I'll track the movement over the coming weeks and see how this list changes.

[MadaboutWu]

Could you clarify what the number refer to? Amount of something above average?

[AndShock]

Could you clarify what the number refer to? Amount of something above average?

“Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play”

So much closer to the median than the mean. I would make the argument that using KenPom to rank conferences isn’t the best use of KenPom.

[CBB_Fan]

Could you clarify what the number refer to? Amount of something above average?

AdjEm basically means how much KenPom expects them to beat a dead average team by. For instance, Santa Clara is very close to +0.00, while we are +26.00. On average, KenPom expects us to beat a Santa Clara by about 26 points. For reference, UKC is -11.81 and Charleston is +7.64, and the highest ranked MVC team is Missouri State at +6.10.

I'll everyone that we led 47-22 against the College of Charleston at half time, and they'd be the best team in the MVC. Not that any had any doubts, but it shows how important the move to the AAC was.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

“Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play”

So much closer to the median than the mean. I would make the argument that using KenPom to rank conferences isn’t the best use of KenPom.

I'm open to convincing otherwise, but looking at the last 15 years or so, KenPom seems to do a decent job of ranking the MVC vs itself. I don't see any major gripes with that list.

[WSUwatcher]

What was also interesting, and a little bit telling, about the 2007 MVC was your observation that eight teams were in the top 86 but only two made the tournament -- in a year immediately after four Valley teams got in, with two making it to the second weekend (Bradley by beating The Flagship).

It's true that 2007 was the year WSU kind of messed up the league by totally tanking the second semester in Turgeon's swan song, but still, it's hard to imagine to many "power" leagues that would put 80% of their teams in the top 90 and get only two into the NCAA. Maybe a little early evidence of the "eye test," brand name bias that metrics could help alleviate if the selection committee actually took them seriously?

[AndShock]

I'm open to convincing otherwise, but looking at the last 15 years or so, KenPom seems to do a decent job of ranking the MVC vs itself. I don't see any major gripes with that list.

Unless I'm misunderstanding his methodology, if a conference had 5 teams in the top 10 team and the rest of the conference were 300+, replacing the 5 top 10 teams with top 100 teams would result in the conference having the same ranking. That seems fundamentally flawed and would mean something like replacing WSU with Valpo basically having 0 effect. Maybe his methodology results in more of an an "average" than I'm currently interpreting but the way it's described seems off.

[AZ Shocker]

What was also interesting, and a little bit telling, about the 2007 MVC was your observation that eight teams were in the top 86 but only two made the tournament -- in a year immediately after four Valley teams got in, with two making it to the second weekend (Bradley by beating The Flagship).

It's true that 2007 was the year WSU kind of messed up the league by totally tanking the second semester in Turgeon's swan song, but still, it's hard to imagine to many "power" leagues that would put 80% of their teams in the top 90 and get only two into the NCAA. Maybe a little early evidence of the "eye test," brand name bias that metrics could help alleviate if the selection committee actually took them seriously?

Exactly.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

AndShock I think (I could be wrong) you are misunderstanding. I believe Ken's ranking +x.xx of a conference is the calculated value of a team that would be expected to go .500 if playing the entire conference. For example, a team ranked +11.99 would be expected to go .500 if they played all 10 of the 2017 MVC teams.

Its not so much a mean or median of the teams, but a description of what level team would find themselves stuck right in the middle of the league. Replacing top 10 teams with mere top 100 teams would make it much more likely that Ken's hypothetical team could pull out a win, thus reducing the hypothetical teams ranking a bit.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

2018 AAC at +8.93 equates to roughly the #73 team in D1. Just taking the average of the 12 team's individual ranks equates to +9.09, so clearly Ken's formula is close to a simple average, but not exactly the same.

[ShockingButTrue]

And the point is...?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

And the point is...?

Read the first 3 words of my original post.

[WstateU]

Meow!

[FlyingWheat]

The other bonus is the unbalanced schedule we get in the AAC, resulting in ever better conference SoS than what this shows.

[chitown_shocker]

And the point is...?

There is no point. This is all meaningless and we are destined to die alone.

:cowbell: Happy Friday!!!!!!