2017-2018 RANKINGS & SOS

[ripemupshocks]

1/8/2018

	Rank	Overall SOS Rank	NonCon SOS Rank
Live RPI	19	34	31
Kenpom	11	80	78
Haslametrics	8	105	-
Realtime RPI TPR	14	49	-
National Statistical	5	39	69
Warren Nolan ELO	8	35	34
KPI Sports	16	70	-
ESPN BPI	10	83	-
Massey Ratings	10	25	-
Sagarin Ratings	12	61	-
Team Rankings	8	23	9
Donchess Ratings	11	19	-
LRMC Ratings	19	77	64

[Jhook89]

What is great is after Thursday night's RPI killing game at ECU (#314) we only have 2 games the rest of the regular season against opponents currently outside the top 100, with Memphis being the lowest at #138. Such a refreshing change from the last decade in the Valley...

With that being said, with how things are currently sitting there are very few opportunities for WSU to secure marquee wins (top 50 RPI) to hang their hat on come selection Sunday. Currently Temple (#43) and Cincinnati (#35) are the only 2 remaining opponents in the top 50, with Houston (#54), UCF (#58), and SMU (#64) currently right on the cusp. I think it is fairly safe to say Temple will probably fall out of the top 50 by years end, which makes it imperative that 1) we at a bare minimum split the Cincinnati series and 2) that some teams from the on the cusp group (hopefully all 3) are able to separate themselves and climb in to the top 50. We are currently 1-2 against the top 50, with our lone win coming again Marquette, which is not a lock to stay in the top 50 by years end. Baylor and OSU have the potential to move in to the top 50 if they have a good conference record, but both teams are currently trending towards being in the bottom half of their league (top half of the Big 12 is very strong this year, so that is not as bad as it sounds).For reference, last years team played 6 top 50 games (2-4).

My point is with the selection committee's emphasis on marquee wins, which we here at shockernet are all too familiar with, we may need to temper expectations for seeding. Last year SMU was 30-4 overall, 2-3 against the top 50 (with both wins being top 25), and only 1 loss outside the top 50 (it was still within the top 100), yet they were given a 6 seed... If we end up going 17-1 in conference like they did last year I do believe that our resume will be stronger, but don't be surprised if we end up going 30-3 and get a 4 or 5 seed. It may turn out that a few of the second tier teams in the AAC separate themselves and we head in to selection Sunday with a fair amount of top 50 wins, but it is definitely something that we should monitor as the season progresses.

All of that being said, I will take being an under-seeded 4 seed over being an under-seeded 10 every single time. It is great to be in the AAC!

[AndShock]

Keep in mind that for this year the wins we want are top 30 for home games, top 50 for neutral, and top 75 for road games. Still plenty of opportunities for Tier 1 wins.

[Stickboy46]

Keep in mind .. with the new Tier system a win @RPI75 = home win vs RPI25. So 5-6 potential tier 1 games left

Our wins @Baylor, @OSU and neutral vs Marquette should all be Tier 1

[shocks02]

Our wins @OSU and N-Marquette both project as Tier 2. They're both right on that borderline but each has work to do over the next two months.

[Play Angry]

Need to adjust mindset away from Top 50 and Top 100 when assessing quality wins, as that is the old framework for the nitty gritty sheets.

Groups 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the new soup du jour. Lots of opportunities coming up for our guys to get Group 1 and Group 2 wins.

[ShockCrazy]

Because I got curious, using RPIForecast which uses Sagarin Predictor for it's model, here is what our Group 1 and Group 2 games look like:
Group1
Notre Dame
@Baylor
Oklahoma
@Houston
@Temple
@Cinci
@SMU
@UCF
Cinci

Group 2
Marquette
South Dakota St
@Oklahoma St
@UConn
Houston
@Tulsa
SMU
UCF
Temple

9 of each. That's incredible compared to our previous schedules. Heck even if we go back to the old top 50 and 51-100 categories its 9 and 7, that top 50 number blows away any schedule we've had since 2006. For reference the 2006 schedule had an absurd 14 top 50 games but only 2 more 51-100.

[ShockCrazy]

Needless to say if this team finishes with 5 or less losses overall we won't be getting under seeded. Assuming an additional group 1 and group 2 game for the conference tournament we are looking at 15-5 record against groups 1 and 2. That at it's weakest is 5-5 group 1 and 10-0 group, with a sub 10 RPI. That resume gets a protected seed easy even at 28-5.

[WuShock Reaper]

wichita-state-rankings.jpeg
Wichita State was ranked No. 7 in the preseason AP Top 25.

"Do Preseason Rankings Predict NCAA Tournament Success?" - HERO Sports

By Andrew Doughty
Published on January 11, 2018 at 9:40 AM EST

https://herosports.com/college-basketball/preseason-rankings-ncaa-tournament-predictions-ahah

"The 21st-ranked team in the Preseason AP Top 25 has missed the NCAA Tournament four straight years.

Two hundred and seventy-six teams have been ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 since 2006. Forty -- or nearly 15 percent -- have failed to not only match expectations of a good seed in the NCAA Tournament, they've whiffed on the tournament entirely.

Preseason and weekly polls exist purely for entertainment purposes. They are not an accurate assessment of the state college basketball, mean nothing outside of perception and are not used as an evaluation tool by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

AP preseason rankings are not accurate in predicting regular-season or postseason success but they have produced interesting trends over the last decade that -- if history repeats itself -- suggest some 2017-18 preseason Top 25 teams could be in trouble. A review of the last 11 years of the preseason AP poll revealed that certain preseason slots are more likely to yield NCAA tournament success, or failure.

In the following data (updated from last year), we excluded play-in games because they're weak. Average tourney seed is calculated from only teams who made the tourney but average tourney games won was calculated from total teams -- because losing in the first round is almost as bad as missing the tourney altogether...."

[ripemupshocks]

Shouldn't the above post be in the media thread.

[pogo]

It fits both topics

[Aargh]

Preseason and weekly polls ...mean nothing outside of perception and are not used as an evaluation tool by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

That's the "official" position, but the selection committee is made up of people who, we hope, have followed basketball throughout the season. If they've followed basketball, they are incredibly likely to have watched the polls. After seeing a team ranked in the polls for 4 months, it would be awfully hard for humans to not give that team a slot in the tournament. If a ranked team was left out of the tournament, the outcry would be overwhelming.

Jerry Palm isn't used in the seeding criteria either, but I'd wager that if he hadn't gone on his months-long campaign to discredit WSU last year, the Shox would have gotten a better seed.

[FadedCrown]

And reading that article, UCLA is also having a bad year, being ranked 21st in the Preseason, amazing.

[DUShock]

Shouldn't the above post be in the media thread.

Welcome to the world of a moderator; damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

[pogo]

Thats why they get the big bucks:)