Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Looking ahead

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Looking ahead

    With the Bradley washout in the books, one would hope the Shocks let Cooper pitch Tuesday against Nebraska (assuming conditions are playable by then, as they certainly should be with a little effort). He could then return for the Sunday conference game on four days rest.

    Actually, WSU could also do a little maneuvering the following week by starting Kelley against OU on a moderate (85-90 or so?) pitch count and then having him return Sunday for the conference game on three days rest with Flynn ready to take over -- or even better, for Flynn to start Sunday against Evansville with Kelley ready when needed. Flynn seems to have reached the point where he can go five solid innings, so letting Kelley be the long man out of the pen on Sunday with Lowell and Cooper starting the Fri-Sat home games against Evansville might be a way to improve their chances in an important midweek game against OU while not sacrificing the conference finale on Easter.

    Unfortunately, there's little recent history to suggest that the latter move could be in the cards, even though in earlier and more successful years it wouldn't have been at all unusual. But maybe we can at least hope to see Cooper this Tuesday.

  • #2
    Re: Looking ahead

    Originally posted by WSUwatcher
    With the Bradley washout in the books, one would hope the Shocks let Cooper pitch Tuesday against Nebraska (assuming conditions are playable by then, as they certainly should be with a little effort). He could then return for the Sunday conference game on four days rest.

    Actually, WSU could also do a little maneuvering the following week by starting Kelley against OU on a moderate (85-90 or so?) pitch count and then having him return Sunday for the conference game on three days rest with Flynn ready to take over -- or even better, for Flynn to start Sunday against Evansville with Kelley ready when needed. Flynn seems to have reached the point where he can go five solid innings, so letting Kelley be the long man out of the pen on Sunday with Lowell and Cooper starting the Fri-Sat home games against Evansville might be a way to improve their chances in an important midweek game against OU while not sacrificing the conference finale on Easter.

    Unfortunately, there's little recent history to suggest that the latter move could be in the cards, even though in earlier and more successful years it wouldn't have been at all unusual. But maybe we can at least hope to see Cooper this Tuesday.
    Who knows you may be right but my guess is Fleming throws tuesday and everything stays the same. I mean mid week means nothing this season. I cna't imagine a scenerio where the shox remaing mid week could now help them get an at large. They have dug too big of hole. Winnng every game possible in conference is whats needed. Best seed possible for the conf tourney. Its the only road to the post season this year.

    Comment


    • #3
      I'd go Lowell 3 innings,Cooper 3,and Flynn 3.Not sure which order though.Nebraska may have some pitching issues depending on if they got in their DH today.They have a makeup also on monday afternoon in Norman.I wish we could talk them into playing 2 on Tuesday!

      Comment


      • #4
        IMO mid-weeks games are unimportant now. Wsu decisions need to be focused on the weekend. Use the mid-week games to develop depth and to give opportunities for younger players.

        Comment


        • #5
          I would not be surprised to see Flynn start since it is his regular turn and go 3-4 innings then Lowell and Cooper pitch 2-3 innings each on Tuesday. That sorta leaves the regular bullpen guys out, though.

          There are other small schools who lost games locally, perhaps Sterling, Newman, or Friends will be in on Wed./Thurs. for a make-up.

          I guess we'll see ...

          Oh, and I agree about mid-week. The Shox MUST win the conference automatic bid. I haven't thought it through, but does seeding matter much (or at all) now in the pod format tournament?

          --'85.
          Basketball Season Tix since '77-78 . . . . . . Baseball Season Tix since '88

          Comment


          • #6
            If he gets a start, look for a pre-determined split.

            Comment


            • #7
              Wrong

              Disagree completely about the importance of midweek games.

              Look at the RPI ranks. Every non-conference team WSU plays from here on outranks every Valley opponent, and only MoState is even close. While the Shocks may indeed be deep enough in the hole to have no chance of an at-large spot, the only slim chance they could possibly have would to be to pick up as many quality wins as possible.

              On the other hand, going 22-0 in the Valley wouldn't make a dime's worth of difference, because they have at most three possible good wins in conference play -- and even that's assuming MSU in Springfield would be considered a "quality" opponent, which may or may not be the case. The Bears certainly don't have the name recognition some of the non-conference teams do. It's true that not winning this decrepit league would be another strike against them -- and Gene and Brent are certainly going to go for it -- but nothing I suggested would reduce their chances of doing so anyway.

              In addition, with the new Valley tournament format, seeding is also largely irrelevant. The only difference is that #1 plays one game vs. #4 whereas #2 plays #3 instead. Depending on the pitching matchup, that may or may not even be an advantage. So really, winning the league is just a matter of pride; what it's all about in MVC play is winning the tournament. On the other hand, playing well against Nebraska, OSU, Oklahoma, K-State, and Kansas -- and playing better against ORU than in that first debacle -- could at least make some positive impression, whereas winning against Valley teams won't even register on the radar.

              I'll be very disappointed, although not necessarily surprised, if Flynn starts against Nebraska. Of course, being very disappointed so far this year is nothing new, anyway.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Wrong

                Originally posted by WSUwatcher
                Disagree completely about the importance of midweek games.
                That what this chatroom is to discuss our disagreements.


                Look at the RPI ranks. Every non-conference team WSU plays from here on outranks every Valley opponent, and only MoState is even close. While the Shocks may indeed be deep enough in the hole to have no chance of an at-large spot, the only slim chance they could possibly have would to be to pick up as many quality wins as possible.
                I'm glad you can somehow hold out hope for at-large bid. Lets see how realistic it could be:

                With the final 10 games it is conceivable (if all teams continue to win or lose at the same pace) WSU non-conference SOS could climb to around 40.

                WSU RPI just due to non-conference RPI would theoretically be the following:

                13-20 (0-10) RPI 125
                15-18 (2-8 ) RPI 106
                17-16 (4-6) RPI 87
                19-14 (6-4) RPI 68
                21-12 (8-2) RPI 48
                ------- bubble territory --------
                23-10 (10-0) RPI 34

                So if WSU would really need to go at least 9-1 to feel like they were at least in the conversation.

                But here is the sad news, lets add in the MVC conference results and lets assume WSU goes 17-5 in the MVC (and likely the would finish second).

                29-25 (0-10) RPI 102
                31-23 (2-8 ) RPI 90
                33-21 (4-6) RPI 88
                35-19 (6-4) RPI 63
                37-17 (8-2) RPI 52
                39-15 (10-0) RPI 45 (Bubble)

                So it would take WSU to have a perfect finish in mid-week and play at the same level in conference that they played last year. That is the hole the shox have dug for themselves. So it is probably not out of the question that they could find themselves a bubble team, but not probable either.


                On the other hand, going 22-0 in the Valley wouldn't make a dime's worth of difference,
                If WSU went 22-0 in the MVC their RPI would be some where in the range of 21 to 40 depending whether they went 6-4 or 10-0 in the remaining 10 non-conference. So it would make a difference in fact it would put them in the position to get an at-large.

                So really, winning the league is just a matter of pride; what it's all about in MVC play is winning the tournament.
                How many 17th ranked conference do you see get their No. 2 team in as at-large? None.

                If WSU doesn't win the conference regular season championship, they will not get an at-large bid. It is a fact. When you play in a conference like the MVC you have to win it or win the tournament. If you don't, it really won't matter what you do in non-conference because you will not be in the discussion.

                Past history has proven it out (reference 2001). WSU finished 2nd in the MVC and going into selection sunday their RPI was in the mid-to-upper 40's. They were one of the last one out. IIRC a conference USA team was selected over them (and their non-conference record was alot worse than WSU).

                The committee when question by Mike Kennedy on the telecon said the conference USA team had played alot of games against top 50 competion (and they lost most of them) and that got them the bid.

                It also later came out that the Missouri St AD who was on the committee and he actually made the argument that it would not be right to take the No. 2 team in a conference and leave the No. 1 home even if their overall resume was better (i.e. take WSU and leave MSU home).

                Comment


                • #9
                  At large

                  I don't remember whether 2001 was the year, SB, but I do know that in one of the all-time tournament selection jokes, Houston actually got into the tournament at large with a .500 overall record somewhere around that time. Maybe that's the situation you're remembering.

                  In any case, we both know that the Shocks are unlikely to go 22-0 in the Valley, but how on earth can you project such a high RPI rank for them even if they do? Remember, 50% of RPI is your opponents' record, and there aren't going to be a lot of good opponent's records in the Valley this year. No one in the league is currently playing even .600 ball.

                  The other thing is that the numbers you're talking about aren't the RPI anyway, they're the rank. RPI is a decimal value (currently .5203 for WSU, according to Warren Nolan, which leaves them ranked 105th). That being the case, isn't it a little tough to project a rank when you obviously can't know what everyone else's RPI value will be?

                  For perspective, last year's 21st ranked team had an RPI of .5823; the 40th ranked team was at .5669. The two years before that the spread was slightly larger. So are you saying that the unlikely event of winning their remaining 20 Valley games, without regard to how they do midweek, would raise WSU that much?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: At large

                    Originally posted by WSUwatcher
                    I don't remember whether 2001 was the year, SB, but I do know that in one of the all-time tournament selection jokes, Houston actually got into the tournament at large with a .500 overall record somewhere around that time. Maybe that's the situation you're remembering.
                    Yes. I believe it was Houston.

                    In any case, we both know that the Shocks are unlikely to go 22-0 in the Valley, but how on earth can you project such a high RPI rank for them even if they do? Remember, 50% of RPI is your opponents' record, and there aren't going to be a lot of good opponent's records in the Valley this year. No one in the league is currently playing even .600 ball.
                    It's simple math. My calculation used RPI formula (without the NCAA bonues). The assumptions were:

                    - Opp Win Pct stayed stable
                    - Opp/Opp Win Pct stays stable
                    - The RPI value and corresponding rank splits remain the same

                    Of course if WSU non-conference opponents get exceptionally better or worse than these projections would get bettor or worse depending.

                    The other thing is that the numbers you're talking about aren't the RPI anyway, they're the rank. RPI is a decimal value (currently .5203 for WSU, according to Warren Nolan, which leaves them ranked 105th). That being the case, isn't it a little tough to project a rank when you obviously can't know what everyone else's RPI value will be?
                    I realized that. I made the assumption that the actual RPI value converted over to a ranking will over the course of the season remain pretty much the same. If you look at past history at say the No. 40 ranking the corresponding RPI number was:

                    2008 - 0.5669
                    2007 - 0.5642
                    2006 - 0.5648
                    2005 - 0.5645
                    2004 - 0.5660

                    I believe it is a valid assumption, of course this is all part of the inherent error or variance that this projection does have.

                    For perspective, last year's 21st ranked team had an RPI of .5823; the 40th ranked team was at .5669. The two years before that the spread was slightly larger.
                    If you plot Ranking versus RPI you will find that is not linear but exponential curve at the ends and is only linear between about 30-250

                    So are you saying that the unlikely event of winning their remaining 20 Valley games, without regard to how they do midweek, would raise WSU that much?
                    No. I said that WSU RPI ranking projects somewhere between 21-40 if they:

                    a. WSU goes 22-0 in conference season
                    b. WSU goes 6-4 or 10-0 in the remaining non-conference

                    of course the 40's would be if WSU goes 6-4, the 20's would be if WSU went 10-0. Of course I think we realize going 22-0 is not very probable. Another way you could look at it is if WSU goes 32-0 they projected to have a Top 20 RPI or if they goe 28-4 they will have Top 40 RPI.

                    The thing to remember is W-L portion of the RPI does not care about who you beat, all it cares about is if you win/lose. A win against bradley counts the same as win against OU.

                    WSU due to it's conference affiliation will never have a great SOS, WSU depends on it superior Winning Pct to gets it's strength in the RPI. WSU must win and win often. But as you pointed out, this is ineffecient in boosting the RPI. At certain point WSU is limited to how high they can climb without SOS. In perfect year, WSU RPI is probably limited to Mid-20's RPI.

                    Now there are other benchmarks the committee will look at the will look at quality of wins. That is where winning these mid-week games are important. But, for the committee to get to the point of them looking at those benchmarks, WSU has to win the MVC conference regular season. If they don't - they will not be in the conversation.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Okay

                      Thanks for the clarification, SB.

                      I agree that it's important for WSU to win the Valley regualr season, simply because with the league being way down in the RPI ranks this year it would be a big minus -- the equivalent of a "bad loss" -- not to do so.

                      But when I was talking about a couple of pitching maneuvers I was hoping to see, you'll recall that I emphasized that I thought they could improve WSU's chances in midweek games while not really hurting them in MVC play.

                      That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I simply believe the Shocks hurt themselves by essentially blowing off midweek games rather than trying to improve their chances in them where they can do so without really weakening their weekend prospects. As long as they win the Valley tournament, of course, it doesn't matter anyway -- but it's nice to have some margin for error in case they slip up. And that margin for error comes from good performance against their quality opponents. Yes, they can't afford a debacle in league play like the four game sweep I believe they suffered against MoState in 2001. But having Cooper pitch on four days rest against Illinois State after a regular outing vs. Nebraska instead of having him face IlSt on four days rest after a short stint tonight anyway is hardly putting the season at risk

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X