Remaining season outlook

[Ta town]

You are nuts if you don't think Tyler Weber is going to straighten out.

For the rest of your quote, yes WSU will go deep in a regional (like every year) but it's the small things that will get them over the top. They don't seem to do the small things this year.

As for Tyler, watch him hit and watch closely. He has a huge tendancy to throw his hips way before the hands. Then instead of thowing the top hand thru the zone he tends to drag his hands and bat head thru the zone. This makes it tough to hit consistently. His timing has to be absolute dead on.

I'm sure your rolling your eyes at me. Just watch some video next time they are on t.v. Slow it down and watch how soon he throws those hips bringing that weight shift forward too quickly and dragging the bat thru the zone. Then watch the other hitters on the team. It also makes him suck on most anything outside.

Just my opinion.

[Ta town]

You are nuts if you don't think Tyler Weber is going to straighten out.

For the rest of your quote, yes WSU will go deep in a regional (like every year) but it's the small things that will get them over the top. They don't seem to do the small things this year.

As for Tyler, watch him hit and watch closely. He has a huge tendancy to throw his hips way before the hands. Then instead of thowing the top hand thru the zone he tends to drag his hands and bat head thru the zone. This makes it tough to hit consistently. His timing has to be absolute dead on.

I'm sure your rolling your eyes at me. Just watch some video next time they are on t.v. Slow it down and watch how soon he throws those hips bringing that weight shift forward too quickly and dragging the bat thru the zone. Then watch the other hitters on the team. It also makes him suck on most anything outside.

I believe last year he was always talking about concentrating on going the other way and up the middle. I really think this helped him from throwing those hips a little too early and kept him from rolling over a lot of the middle to outside pitches. Maybe something like that will help again. More than anything confidence is huge to hitters and when your in the kind of slump he is in it makes it hard to be confident up there.

Just my opinion.

[ISASO]

Rose, the real problem is that for this team to host a Regional and more importantly to host a Super Regional, there is a near-zero margin for error.

I believe something like 77% of teams who host win, so you're only significant hope to reach Omaha is to host a Super Regional.

Unfortunately, there cannot be more than a couple hiccups during the season. This team has about doubled the number of hiccups allowed and still has around 15 games to play.

That's where the sense of despair comes from. How many hiccups would you consider acceptable for hosting a Regional and Super Regional without relying on charity like last season?

[ShockRef]

Re: Pitching?

I was busy with family things and didn't listen to taday's game, which was probably for the best as it turned out -- what a terrible loss to a bad team -- so I have a couple of questions about pitching choices:

1. Clearly Capra was off his game, but just looking at the box score I'm surprised he was pulled after five. Had he reached a reasonable pitch count at that point; was he not feeling well; what was the problem -- why was he lifted in light of the way, for example, the coaches stuck with Musgrave Friday night, who was no better in that game than Capra was Sunday?

2. Where was Tyler Fleming? He pitched 1 1/3 innings all weekend -- and of course the inning Saturday was totally unnecessary; could Kemp, Womack, or even Coleman or McKeever not have been asked to hold a seven-run lead once the Shocks broke open game one? Was that amount of pitching Friday and Saturday enough to render Fleming unavailable once Hoch had his mishap?

Just based on history, I can understand lifting Hoch, because we've seen him lose his edge a bit when something goes wrong (in fact, it happened earlier this week when the foul pop by Jordy Mercer was unreachable in OSU's bandbox, and forced to try again, Hoch grooved one to spoil an otherwise brilliant outing). The walk following his error could have generated concern that it was happening again. Still, why anyone would give the ball to dangerous Dusty over Fleming in that spot with two outs to go is beyond me. (And yes, I know there's a game Tuesday -- but assuming Fleming is the intended Tuesday starter, surely trying to get two outs Sunday doesn't use him up for Tuesday, does it? And if it does, we see again that maybe using him to close out what had become a 14-7 game wasn't such a great idea.)

1) The word I got was pitch count. You're right - he clearly was not his usual self and was totally reliant on his fastball. His off speed stuff just wasn't there. Speaking of not having it, Nanney has been lights out all year but he should have stayed on the bus. It just wasn't his weekend.
2) Hoch was really throwing well. Yes, he messed up the potential DP, but with the options in the pen, he was clearly better. He was keeping the ball down and making quality pitches. At the very least, I would have let him face one more batter.
3) I was so pissed at Gene that I forgot about the strike out/throw out DP. That was a bonehead move because everyone in the place (maybe 100, tops) knew he was going.
4) Losing to InSU was the equivalent of losing to UE this past year in hoops.
They hustle, but are not very good. Schmidt is their best player and could play for WSU but the rest were role players at best. However, they don't quit and you had to give them credit for the comeback. They also were making a lot of noise during the comeback and there wasn't any coming out of WSU's - except all of the F-bombs after the final run. 8)

[Shocker85]

What's left for 2008?

Despite being 33-9, this team is demonstrating that it is not deep enough or consistent enough to get on any kind of roll. There's a disturbing trend developing - win 2 games, lose 1 - we're currently on the 5th iteration of that trend.

Grade Card:

Starting Pitching
The starting pitching has been good, but not great, not DOMINANT. Each of them has had a bad outing or two and they have mostly gotten themselves in trouble with free passes when they have had trouble or had one bad inning in a game that has been their downfall. That said, the starting pitching has been the most consistent part of this squad and is probably in the top 20 or so in the nation. Grade B+

Relief Pitching
The bullpen does not have a GO-TO guy. Kohl Nanney was pretty good for a while, but he's given up a bunch of inherited runners that aren't reflected in his stats and usually via wild pitches. Logan Hoch is usually good, but when he gets into trouble it goes downhill quickly. Fleming has been good, but might be more valuable as a starter. The rest have not been very good. Two or three reliable relievers are not near enough for this team to succeed. Grade C-

Offense
The offense has struggled to score enough runs against good pitching to backup the starters when they aren't dominating. No wins vs. Top 25 opponents bears this out. Minimal production from the DH spot and 1B have been killer. Those are two places where defense is sacrificed for offensive production, but that isn't happening. Dirks and Gillaspie are the only guys who haven't gone through extended slumps (Workman hasn't either, but his 10+ games out are a virtual slump). Jones in the 4-hole was a disaster - too much pressure, I guess. Coleman was very unproductive for a while, but thankfully seems to have gotten a little better, but is just 4-17 since returning to the 4-hole. With Workman out, production from the youngsters at 2B has been low, although each has gotten more comfortable at the plate. Kenny Williams, Jr. has been a pleasant surprise, although he struggled a bit when moved up in the order, seems better down at 8 or 9. Tyler Weber is a very frustrated man at the plate right now, even when he hits the ball well he makes out. He needs a couple lucky hits right now in the worst way. Tyler Hill has had a very disappointing season. Grade C

Defense
This team started out amazingly well on defense. The outfield has played at a level we may have never seen, but Dirks is needed back in CF to anchor the OF. The infield, especially Coleman and Gillaspie has been outstanding. Gillaspie had a few lapses early on, but recently he makes virtually every routine play, and a few spectacular ones. Coleman gets to balls and guns down runners to a degree that seems super-human at times. His range has cost him a few errors, but has gotten far more extra outs. Workman and Hill/McKeever have been consistent if not particularly rangy at 2B and 1B. The frosh have been decent, with a few frosh errors. Grade A- (unless Coleman is in at P, then B-)

Coaching
The coaches seem to still be tinkering at this late stage in the season. Some of it is due to injuries and long batting slumps. Or maybe the long batting slumps are a product of the tinkering. The bullpen rotation is a mystery. I just don't understand how starters can be allowed to throw 100-110 pitches per week, but good relievers are limited to 40-50. Guys arms aren't going to fall off if they pitch two days in a row. And when a pitcher is on a roll, leave him in the game. The Dusty Coleman relief pitcher thing is BAD BASEBALL (see my other thread). There haven't been many good pinch ABs and the offensive depth is poor. This team had great chemistry coming out of off-season conditioning and pre-season drills, but the coaches are in their heads and some guys don't appear to be having much fun now. Oh, and Tyler Weber is not a fast or good baserunner - pinch run for him when he carries meaningful runs. Grade D

[1972Shocker]

As bad as Sunday's loss was I think a 5-0 week this week would go a long way towards erasing that loss.

I am cautiously hoping that that loss will serve to fire the guys up and we will start playing with more aggression and toughness than we have been lately.

However, a 3-2 week would not surprise me at all and would definitley doom any thoughts of a Top 8 super regioal seeding.

I think a super-regional hosting opportunity is still a possibility but as someone said earlier we probably have very little further room for error.
Maybe one more conference loss and one more mid-week loss plus a 3-game sweep in the MVC Tournament would position us pretty well.

That would put us at 48-11 overall with both the regular season (19-5) and MVC Tournament championships in our pockets. Even that would probably not guarantee a Top 8 seeding, but at least might put us in the dicussion.

:goshocks:

[SHOCKvalue]

As bad as Sunday's loss was I think a 5-0 week this week would go a long way towards erasing that loss.

I am cautiously hoping that that loss will serve to fire the guys up and we will start playing with more aggression and toughness than we have been lately.

However, a 3-2 week would not surprise me at all and would definitley doom any thoughts of a Top 8 super regioal seeding.

I think a super-regional hosting opportunity is still a possibility but as someone said earlier we probably have very little further room for error.
Maybe one more conference loss and one more mid-week loss plus a 3-game sweep in the MVC Tournament would position us pretty well.

That would put us at 48-11 overall with both the regular season (19-5) and MVC Tournament championships in our pockets. Even that would probably not guarantee a Top 8 seeding, but at least might put us in the dicussion.

:goshocks:

With the way we're battling right now, I think you'd have to consider a 3-2 result from the upcoming week as not too bad. I'd say there's virtually zero chance of us going 5-0 this week. A road game at 0U and a weekend series with the MVC co-leaders is not the formula for 5-0.

Also, no way a national seed is even remotely possible at this point, and to just merely get a regional will take a hot run to finish the regular season... a REALLY hot run.

[Shocker85]

...I think a 5-0 week this week would go a long way ....

... one more conference loss and one more mid-week loss plus a 3-game sweep in the MVC ...

... 48-11 overall with both the regular season (19-5) and MVC Tournament championships

'72,

I love your optimism, man, but I'm afraid all the things you outline in your post are required for us to simply host a regional. Top 8 national seed hopes are long gone. The marquee wins just aren't there. 49-11 with SoS around 100, plus high-20's RPI just won't impress the committee.

Host a regional and hope for a fluke like '07 are the only hopes for a Super Regional in Wichita.

--'85.

[ISASO]

I suspect a top 5 national ranking and a five-loss season might qualify WSU for a national seed. The 10+ losses we will end up has already sunk that battleship.

Winning games in the MVC carries very little weight. Winning both conference titles is really the only way to avoid being penalized.

[SekShocker]

Q: Heath from Kansas asks:
Is Wichita State still a regional host?

A: Aaron Fitt: Not if it fails to win the Missouri Valley Conference, that's for sure. Right now, the Shockers are looking up at Missouri State (by a half-game) in the MVC standings. Even if they win the league, their chances aren't great, because Wichita's RPI is 26 and falling: looming series against Evansville and Bradley are going to kill them. The Shockers really needed to win those midweek games the last two weeks against Nebraska and Oklahoma State, and they lost both.

From Baseball America chat session. He doesn't have his facts straight in regards to the Valley standings, we are actually tied with Northern Iowa and Missouri State is looking up at us.

[KC Shox]

Yeah, he doesn't quite have his facts straight, but the essence of his message is correct. There is no room for error right now (as far as hosting possibilities are concerned). We upcoming games against EU and BU, the KSU, OU and ASU games are now a must win to balance the RPI.

[shocks771]

Actually he is correct in saying that WSU is 1/2 game behind Missouri State in the standings. Missouri State is 13-5 which is 2 games ahead of WSU in the win column and 1 loss behind WSU in the loss column, thus they technically have a 1/2 game lead over both UNI and WSU. WSU and UNI are ahead if you use winning percentage, but not if you use total wins and losses.

http://www.ncaa-baseball.com/conferences/standings_mvc.htm

[SekShocker]

Actually he is correct in saying that WSU is 1/2 game behind Missouri State in the standings. Missouri State is 13-5 which is 2 games ahead of WSU in the win column and 1 loss behind WSU in the loss column, thus they technically have a 1/2 game lead over both UNI and WSU. WSU and UNI are ahead if you use winning percentage, but not if you use total wins and losses.

http://www.ncaa-baseball.com/confere...ndings_mvc.htm

That must have been what he was looking at because he seems to always have his facts straight and know what he is talking about. I think the regular season champ would be by winning percentage and we also have the tie breaker over Missouri State having beaten them 2 out of 3.

[shockfan89]

With the way we're battling right now, I think you'd have to consider a 3-2 result from the upcoming week as not too bad. I'd say there's virtually zero chance of us going 5-0 this week. A road game at 0U and a weekend series with the MVC co-leaders is not the formula for 5-0.

Actually the weekend hitting was great! It wasn't a really good team, but anytime you hit .310 on the weekend (with 35 hits) and average 11 runs per game you need to sweep. The relief pitching was TERRIBLE.

[shockfan89]

Also, I understand people being concerned about the way we are playing, but keep in mind we are still a top 10 team. IF we can just start playing smart and only lose one game a week from here on in we should be in a VERY strong spot to host a Regional. IF!

I have never seen so many people questioning a top 10 team!!! I don't actually feel we deserve the ranking, but SB Shock said it best about it being harder to move into the top 10 than move out of it. We are seeing that now. If we could just get our injuries under control and pull our heads out, we still control our own destiny. We could go .500 in mid-week play and still make a strong case to host!!!