Boydsworld RPIneeds

[Born2Shock]

Boydsworld has us needing to go 25-1 to get a regional.

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

[CharlieHog]

Sweet. If the Hogs go 23-0 the rest of the way we'll be a national seed. lol

[ABC]

Jeez, that says we have no shot at a national seed and we've only lost 4 games!

If so, there is something seriously wrong.

North Carolina must only go .500 to get a national seed. I do realize they play in a very tough conference. Miami and Flordia state can go sub .500 and still be a national seed.

How did his number projection line up last. I would guess we wouldn't have had a #1 seed under this number system last year.

[Born2Shock]

Obviously this isnt a hard-fast system, but at least it gives a bit of an idea about where things are.

[WSUwatcher]

Hmmm

Sweet. If the Hogs go 23-0 the rest of the way we'll be a national seed. lol

Wow -- guess it's a good thing WSU and Arkansas don't play this year in that case.

Boyd Nation is a solid student of college baseball, but like every other projector, he too is not on the selection committee, which has been known to disagree with him. So WSU doesn't need his approval to be a regional host, and in fact doesn't even necessarily need to be a #1 seed to be a regional host. Every year there's at least one host team that isn't seeded #1, but has the regional anyway because of its bid and its facility, and WSU will always be a contender in those categories.

[SB Shock]

Jeez, that says we have no shot at a national seed and we've only lost 4 games!

If so, there is something seriously wrong.

Nothing wrong. Thats what happens when WSU has played a weak schedule. When it's all said and done WSU will have played:

11 game against 200+ competition
20 games against 150-200 Competition

and only 10 games against Top 50 (unless SWMO and CU can move up)

WSU only hope is they create the perception (through polls, domination of MVC and MVC tourny, and through Mid-week games) that they are truly a premier team in the nation who happens to be the victim of a poor conference and a non-conference schedule that just didn't work out.

It would have helped though if WSU could have won at least 1 against LBS.

[Hovpen]

And how many of those top 50 competition games played did they win? To host, wins against Nebraska, OSU and OU are a must.

[WSUwatcher]

Top 50

Warren Nolan's site shows that the Shocks are currently 5-3 against teams in the RPI top 50, with five games to go: OU (hanging in there at 46th but likely to benefit from the good records and RPIs of most of their conference opponents), Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and Oral Roberts.

That would actually make 13 top 50 games if MoSt (the only other remote possibility unless K-State, currently 76th, really catches fire) doesn't move up. Still, there's nothing wrong with 5-3 vs. the top 50. For example, the only team in the Big 12 that Nolan currently shows as doing better is Oklahoma State (at 8-4), with Missouri matching the Shocks at 5-3. As I've noted before, though, this definitely does emphasize the importance of performing reasonably well in those remaining top 50 games -- and having three of the five be on Wednesday (all but Nebraska and the ORU makeup) does not bode well unless the coaches revise their pitching plans.

I'd still prefer to see one of WSU's big three go in some of those top 50 games -- and it can certainly be done without doing great violence to their MVC plans (is it really that scary to have Tim Kelley pitch against the #3 guy for some of the lesser Valley teams?) -- but if that isn't going to happen and they insist on using their big three only on weekends, it would be nice for them at least to show the mental flexibility to ensure that Kelley gets the starts against all top 50 opponents regardless of whether the games are on Tuesday or Wednesday. Really, now -- if he's going to start one game a week anyway, how tough is that?

[haysdb]

So we need to finish 47-5 (against D1 teams) to host? Ouch.

I will allow that it might be true that we would need to go 25-1 against our remaining competition to finish in the top 16 in the RPI and therefore be guaranteed to host. Our remaining schedule, after Creighton and outside of a handful of midweek games, is atrocious.

I completely agree about starting Tim Kelley on Wednesday and throwing Maune on Tuesdays. Why the hell would you not? It makes no sense, unless the plan is to try to give ourselves the very best chance of winning the Tuesday games and just accept that we won't win many of the Wednesday games, rather than risk losing both of them. That tells me we're more interested in racking up a big number of wins, even if it means not winning a single game against a top quality opponent (Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Arizona State), than we are about polishing our resume with some "good wins." I hope there is some method to this madness.

How about this: move Capra to Friday, Musgrave to Saturday, Kelley to Sunday, and designate Shafer as the Big XII starter. Which pitcher gets dissed in that scenario? Rob is the only one who doesn't "move up."

Here's a thought: Maybe we want Musgrave pitching at night? OK, fine, designate Musgrave as the Big XII starter and then EVERYONE gets promoted.

If we can't win the MVC with Kelley pitching the Sunday games, facing the third starter on teams with RPIs in the 200s, then we have big problems. BTW, Kelley has been damned good. He stands to be our Friday starter next year.

[rrshock]

That game this week against OU would have helped. At least Tabor doesn't count against or for the RPI.

So WSU would have to be damn near 50-5 to get a #1 seed? What kind of crap is that?

[tripleshock]

WSU only hope is they create the perception (through polls, domination of MVC and MVC tourny, and through Mid-week games) that they are truly a premier team in the nation who happens to be the victim of a poor conference and a non-conference schedule that just didn't work out.

That statement describes exactly what they're trying to do......the problem is, if you and I can see thru it, don't you think the selection committee can too?

Our current RPI numbers are actually more likely to get worse rather than better, as the season progresses.

[t7017s]

I'd just like to say that there is one huge factor everyone is not realizing... This has to be based on if all the teams finish the year exactly as would be predicted based on the whats been played so far. Nothing even remotely close to that is going to happen so this is ridiculous to even talk about really. Let alone take seriously or contemplate for any reason. Well thats how I see it I guess.

[SB Shock]

So WSU would have to be damn near 50-5 to get a #1 seed? What kind of crap is that?

No, that is only to have a top 16 RPI. It's possible that WSU can be a number 1 seed and not have a Top 16 RPI (it's even possible they could host and not be #1 seed).

[ShockerFever]

I'd just like to say that there is one huge factor everyone is not realizing... This has to be based on if all the teams finish the year exactly as would be predicted based on the whats been played so far. Nothing even remotely close to that is going to happen so this is ridiculous to even talk about really. Let alone take seriously or contemplate for any reason. Well thats how I see it I guess.

Excellent point.

The 30 or so teams above WSU aren't all going to go to have beautiful seasons lacking bad losses.

This whole thing is kind of a joke.

I'm pretty sure WSU has been in the Valley for quite a while now. During that stretch, I'm pretty sure WSU teams have had worse records than 50-5 and worse losses than Missouri State and still have gotten regional hosts/No. 1 seeds.

This is all a scare tactic. Take care of the Valley. Win 3 games against OU, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, ORU, Arizona State and WSU is a lock for a 1 seed/regional host.

We had 20 losses last year and hosted for God's sake. Don't tell me the Valley was that much better last year than this year.

[KC Shox]

The odds of hosting are going bye-bye. With all these rain-outs we have this year, it has and will ultimately kill us. We could have used the two games against Fordham, and now we lost chances to boost our RPI from lost games to ORU and OU. Although winning that OU game would have been a miracle.