Pitching Rotation

[shockfan89]

I know some of you will think I am nuts for this but every year I try it and every year Gene and Brent laugh when I suggest it but I think this year I have a better case than most… I think Capra should start Saturday against Missouri State instead of Sunday and then should start the following games: Wed. April 9th against OU, Tuesday April 15th against NU, Wed. April 23rd against OSU, Wed. April 30th against OU, and then back to the Sunday game with UNI if, and only if, the MVC race is in question. If not, he should start Wed. May 7th against ASU and Tuesday May 13th against ORU.

Here are my reasons.
1. This team has a chance to be pretty good and the mid-week games could be the difference between a National Seed or not.
2. If the MVC is really down this year Tim Kelley should be able to hold his own against the Sunday starter for most of the teams. My rotation would have him starting against the bottom teams in the MVC (Capra would start against MSU and could be back in the rotation for UNI).
3. We could lose all three weekend starters after this season and it would be great to get somebody else into the mix so we have some returning experience next year.
4. Capra has shown he is very versatile and can handle a change without getting out of rhythm.
5. Why not try something different? You don’t get a bid for winning the MVC regular season anyway! Of course it would look bad if we didn’t, but if we have a good record against the ranked mid-week opponents, nobody will care if we lose a few more MVC games.

[shockerball05]

I am not against your suggestion, but it wont ever happen. Bottom line, Gene and Brent wont ever use a weekend guy midweek unless absolutely necessary

[longlimbs22]

nobody will care if we lose a few more MVC games.

If it's against Bradley, UNI, UE, SIU or Indiana State, plenty of people would care.

[shockfan89]

nobody will care if we lose a few more MVC games.

If it's against Bradley, UNI, UE, SIU or Indiana State, plenty of people would care.

I would much rather trade a win with a couple top 10 ranked teams for a POSSIBLE loss against one or two of those. Everybody losses a game here and there (see #1 ASU losing to Northern Colorado) but the quality wins against non-conference are worth the loss especially when being looked at for a national seed.

If we go undefeated in the MVC and lose those mid-week games we have ZERO chance of a national seed. If we win those mid-week games and drop one or two on the weekend we would very likely be given a national seed (unless we fall apart somewhere). We will gain NOTHING by winning the Valley regular season. NOTHING!

[WSUwatcher]

Yes, but

Shockfan, I'd love to see it happen. You've analyzed it well, and I think your point about Kelley vs. the #3 guy for most MVC opponents is well taken.

Personally, I wish -- and have wished for years, and said so on here -- that the Shocks would return to using a regular pro-style rotation rather than the day-of-the-week foolishness (sorry, I mean "stuff") that is prevalent in college baseball these days. They did it that way for many years, including much of the period during which they were winning 14 straight MVC championships, and had great success with it, partly because they recruited more good pitchers than most teams do -- which is still true, by the way -- but also partly because doing it that way helped them develop even more depth. Having a regular rotation, even with four guys plus a fifth spot starter chosen from among several candidates, could easily give them at least two of their top three in every conference series while allowing one of their "weekend" pitchers to work a midweek game every week and seek out some of the quality wins they'll need if they want to be a national seed.

Unfortunately, I believe shockerball is right when he says it won't happen. The staff's obsession with winning the Valley -- which, as you say, is not very helpful in terms of getting seeded favorably in the tournament (although it is useful to ensure getting in, which seems to be more of a concern than in the past, and in my view is more of a concern than it should be), and is especially unhelpful if doing so causes them to pick up fewer quality wins than they would by using top-line pitchers against midweek opponents -- will almost certainly preclude it. I personally think that's a mistake; I think they should assume that they can do well enough in the Valley that if they pick up a decent number of quality midweek wins they'll always at least get in, even if they somehow happen not to win the conference regular season. But I'm not the one who gets to decide.

I think the best we can hope for is to see Tyler Fleming pitch in some of the midweek games. Anytime Fleming can get away with an easy weekend, I'd like to see him go Tuesday (with Kelley on Wednesday) so that Fleming will be back ready to go in relief come Friday night.

[Born2Shock]

Please remember too, that these teams will more than likely be using their mid-week starter as well. Is Kelley better than their #4 or #5 guy? I would lean towards yes. Alot of teams, especially ASU, are not used to playing this many games a week. This may, or may not catch up with them as the year goes on.

[WSUwatcher]

#5

That's a valid point, Born, and it's one of the reasons I'm more hopeful about winning these games than someone like King Cranky (a/k/a KC) is. The Shocks should be able to score some runs against other teams' second-line pitching.

But:

1. Not everyone will necessarily use second-line pitching; not all teams give their starters as much rest and careful handling as WSU does.

2. Kelley remains a freshman who is still learning, even though he seems to be making progress, and he also hasn't yet shown the ability to go longer than five innings.

3. It isn't just Kelley we're talking about; the Shocks need a #5 guy as well, and that spot is even less clear and solidified than Kelley's is.

4. Quality wins are important enough that it would be nice to maximize the chance of getting them by using a front-line pitcher (a point that is likely also to occur to the opponents, by the way; see #1).

5. As between relying on Kelley plus whoever is needed to finish out the game against Arizona State while Capra faces Evansville, or Capra against Arizona State with Kelley facing Evansville, which combination provides the better chance to win both games?

6. And, if you had to win only one of those two games (with ASU, and Sunday vs. Evansville) would you honestly prefer that the one be Sunday against Evansville? Surely not.

[Cdizzle]

Re: #5

6. And, if you had to win only one of those two games (with ASU, and Sunday vs. Evansville) would you honestly prefer that the one be Sunday against Evansville? Surely not.

I would rather take the UE game and my chances against ASU.

[shockfan89]

Re: #5

6. And, if you had to win only one of those two games (with ASU, and Sunday vs. Evansville) would you honestly prefer that the one be Sunday against Evansville? Surely not.

I would rather take the UE game and my chances against ASU.

I do understand that logic and I am not saying it is clear cut, I just think the upside of winning these non-conference games is way better than the downside of losing a couple MVC games. Also, it is too early to tell if we will be in a position to do this, but after this weekend I think we will know. Capra could start the Saturday game and move back to next Sunday if we don’t sweep MSU, or at least win 2 of 3.

We are ranked VERY high right now and if we play our cards right we could play that into a national seed. We have done the win the MVC at all costs thing for the past forever and how many national seeds has it gotten us? Obviously this coaching staff knows what they are doing but I would love to just change things up a little and see what can work. This year seems like a perfect time with three very even weekend starters. Just think or our chances to go to Omaha hosting a Regional and Super Regional with a 1-2-3 punch of Musgrave, Shafer, and Capra. I want us to be in the best possible position to do that!

[shock10]

Not a good idea. Tim Kelly pitched great yesterday and I believe Clint will be solid tonight.

[shockfan89]

Not a good idea. Tim Kelly pitched great yesterday and I believe Clint will be solid tonight.

All the more reason he could start on Sunday against MVC opponents. :D

[vbird53]

I agree 100% with shockfan89.

Why not give a try? We've got a solid team this year. What would it hurt to gamble (if you could call it that) just a bit, and give us the chance to be truly great?

I think the results would be special.

[SB Shock]

Here is my 2 cents.

1. The MVC race has been within 1 game for at least the last 3 years. I don't expect this year to be any different.

2. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they will not host a regional. Doesn't matter what they do during mid-week games at that point.

3. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they are at risk of getting a NCAA bid. Thats the problem of playing in the 17th ranked conference.

4. WSU system has worked well for them. That is one reason why they are year in and year out generally in the national scene. They bring in players who get the opportunity to step right in. They get trial by fire and get immediate confidence and are better prepared for the next season.

5. Lets not forget, a few years ago WSU was having to pitch a No. 5 and 6 during the mid-weeks because No. 1 through 4 were pitching on weekends. Now No. 1 through 3 are pitching on weekends, No. 4-5 are pitching mid-week games - so WSU is already better off.

[shockfan89]

Here is my 2 cents.

1. The MVC race has been within 1 game for at least the last 3 years. I don't expect this year to be any different.

2. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they will not host a regional. Doesn't matter what they do during mid-week games at that point.

3. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they are at risk of getting a NCAA bid. Thats the problem of playing in the 17th ranked conference.

4. WSU system has worked well for them. That is one reason why they are year in and year out generally in the national scene. They bring in players who get the opportunity to step right in. They get trial by fire and get immediate confidence and are better prepared for the next season.

5. Lets not forget, a few years ago WSU was having to pitch a No. 5 and 6 during the mid-weeks because No. 1 through 4 were pitching on weekends. Now No. 1 through 3 are pitching on weekends, No. 4-5 are pitching mid-week games - so WSU is already better off.

1. True, but everyone says the MVC is down this year and I think we will have a pretty good idea after this weekend how good the conference is. I believe MSU has by far the highest RPI of any of the other teams in the MVC. Doesn't mean you can show up and win, but it will be a good test.

2. It would depend on how many losses we have. If we lose three MVC games we would host and could get a national seed. We probably won't lose the MVC if we only have three losses so I see your point.

3. If we play .750 from here on we are in NO MATTER WHAT. It might be close but they will not leave out a team with 46 - 48 wins regardless of the conference they play in. Again, I agree we don't want to be in that situation but I don't think throwing Kelley on Sunday would make that big of difference in whether or not we win the MVC unless he loses EVERY start.

4. I love the trial by fire, but I don't think making Kelley a Sunday starter is giving him a free pass. He will still have the same pressure to win, it just puts us in a better position to win the "eye test" games against top competition and gives us a returning pitcher with some weekend starting experience.

5. I agree. I think KC Shox losses his $100 either way. I just want to have a .750 win percentage against those teams I listed above. I also doubt it will happen, but I think it would be a great plan to try to maintain this high ranking we have now.

[SB Shock]

Here is my 2 cents.

1. The MVC race has been within 1 game for at least the last 3 years. I don't expect this year to be any different.

2. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they will not host a regional. Doesn't matter what they do during mid-week games at that point.

3. If WSU doesn't win the MVC, they are at risk of getting a NCAA bid. Thats the problem of playing in the 17th ranked conference.

4. WSU system has worked well for them. That is one reason why they are year in and year out generally in the national scene. They bring in players who get the opportunity to step right in. They get trial by fire and get immediate confidence and are better prepared for the next season.

5. Lets not forget, a few years ago WSU was having to pitch a No. 5 and 6 during the mid-weeks because No. 1 through 4 were pitching on weekends. Now No. 1 through 3 are pitching on weekends, No. 4-5 are pitching mid-week games - so WSU is already better off.

1. True, but everyone says the MVC is down this year and I think we will have a pretty good idea after this weekend how good the conference is. I believe MSU has by far the highest RPI of any of the other teams in the MVC. Doesn't mean you can show up and win, but it will be a good test.

Every year there is 1 or 2 teams that compete regardless of the strength of the MVC. The margin of error is slim since the conference went to a 3 game series. One bad weekend is all it takes.

2. It would depend on how many losses we have. If we lose three MVC games we would host and could get a national seed. We probably won't lose the MVC if we only have three losses so I see your point.

If WSU does not win the MVC conference, they are not hosting a regional. It's not going to happen. The precedent is there.

3. If we play .750 from here on we are in NO MATTER WHAT.

If WSU doesn't win the MVC conference, they are at risk. For every scenario you can imagine how they can lose the MVC but still get a bid, I can give you a scenario where they would be denied a bid. Again there is a precident in past history.

Bottomline is if WSU wants to be a regional host (and be in play for national seed), they have to dominate the MVC and do good (well better than good) in their non-conference. But it all starts with the MVC.

Let also remember, they have pitched weekend guys during mid-week games in the past. Alot of it depends on the individual. Shox just need to keep focused and play ball and I have confidence that Kemnitz can come up with a plan.